Report
EUR 400.00
For Business Accounts Only
2019 was a very negative year, affected by a number of one-offs that will result in a reduction of -50% in EBITDA vs. 2018. The situation as of the 2H’19 was worse than expected and thus, we cut our estimates by -17.5% for the 2019-21 period. On the other hand, some of these negative factors are turning around, which gives us optimism (-25% in the price of iron and +25% and +15% in steel prices in the US and Europe, respectively) and leads us to expect an improvement of +25% in EBITDA’20. We set our T.P. at € 18.50/sh. (-20% vs. previously), which yields an upside potential of +30%. In terms of EBITDA/Mt, the stock price is factoring in a scenario of -20% vs. the 2011/19 average and of +10% vs. normalised levels BS(e). We believe that the normalisation of the operating scenario will be key for the stock in the coming months.
ARCELOR MITTAL: EMERGING FROM THE TUNNEL (ANÃLISIS BANCO SABADELL)
ARCELOR MITTAL: Normalisation following the 2019 tsunami. BUY.2019 was a very negative year, affected by a number of one-offs that will result in a reduction of -50% in EBITDA vs. 2018. The situation as of the 2H’19 was worse than expected and thus, we cut our estimates by -17.5% for the 2019-21 period. On the other hand, some of these negative factors are turning around, which gives us optimism (-25% in the price of iron and +25% and +15% in steel prices in the US and Europe, respectively) and leads us to expect an improvement of +25% in EBITDA’20. We set our T.P. at € 18.50/sh. (-20% vs. previously), which yields an upside potential of +30%. In terms of EBITDA/Mt, the stock price is factoring in a scenario of -20% vs. the 2011/19 average and of +10% vs. normalised levels BS(e). We believe that the normalisation of the operating scenario will be key for the stock in the coming months.
Underlying
ArcelorMittal
Provider
Sabadell
Francisco Rodriguez
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