IBERIAN DAILY 02 JUNE (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)
NEWS SUMMARY: ARCELORMITTAL.
All eyes still on Trump
Slight gains on European markets over the course of the week, remaining near annual highs. However, the gains halted on Friday after Donald Trump stated that China had completely violated its tariff agreement with the US. China counterattacked stating the same and threatening to take measures. Within the STOXX 600, Real Estate and Industrials ended the week with the biggest gains, while Construction and Media suffered the biggest drops. On the macro side, in the euro zone, April’s M3 sped up its YoY advance more than expected. From the ECB, F. Panetta admitted that the organisation has less leeway to lower rates. In Spain, May’s inflation fell more than expected to a seven-month low, whereas in Germany it remained at the 2.1% YoY from the previous month, as expected and very close to the ECB’s target. In the US, April’s real personal consumption grew +0.1% MoM vs. 0.7% previously, whereas the core consumption deflator fell in line with expectations (down to 2.5% YoY). In China, the official manufacturing PMI improved to 49.5, as expected, and that of services was disappointing, falling slightly to 50.3%. On the commercial side, D. Trump announced tariffs of as much as 50% on steel and aluminium whereas progress is made on the merger between Nippon Steel and US Steel. Furthermore, the US and China are accusing each other of failing to meet the tariff truce during the negotiation period.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with losses of around -0.4% due to the trade and geopolitical doubts, with the oil sector recovering following Ukraine’s drone attacks on Russia. Currently, S&P futures are down -0.5% (the S&P 500 ended +0.30% higher vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are falling (China’s CSI 300 closed and Japan’s Nikkei -1.33%).
Today in the euro zone we will learn May’s final manufacturing PMI and in the US May’s manufacturing ISM and April’s construction spending.