IBERIAN DAILY 09 OCTOBER (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)
NEWS SUMMARY: CAF, CAIXABANK, VISCOFAN.Lacking drivers
In a session of few macro references, European stock markets managed to reel in the losses from the opening bell with the boost from the US and the falling oil prices. The IBEX, which closed with slight gains, was once again the best-performing index in the euro zone. In the STOXX 600, most of the sectors closed with losses (15/20), led by Basic Materials and Consumer Goods, whereas the defensive Telecoms and Utilities were the best performers. On the macro side, in Germany August’s industrial output rose more than expected thanks to the auto sector. From the ECB, J. Nagel (Bundesbank) and Y. Stournaras (Bank of Greece) were open to lowering rates in October and December. In the US, NFIB SME confidence rose less than expected, now below the 50-year average for 33 straight months. In US business results, PepsiCo beat expectations slightly but lowered its guidance. Separately, the US Department of Justice has proposed splitting Google’s business up in the case of a monopoly.
What we expect for today
Stock markets would open flat with some bearish slant. Currently, S&P futures are down -0.20% (the S&P 500 ended +0.14% higher vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are mixed (China’s CSI 300 -4.15%, Japan’s Nikkei +1.00%).
Today in Mexico and Brazil we will learn September’s inflation.
COMPANY NEWS
VISCOFAN. 3Q'24 results preview: Potential cut to 2024 targets. OVERWEIGHT
Despite the fact that an improvement was expected on the operating level in 3Q’24 following a poor 1H’24, we do not think it will be enough to reach the 2024 targets. Thus, everything suggests APAC’s performance will continue to be lacklustre, as will electricity pool prices. We expect 3Q’24 revenues to reach €~310 M (€ 312 M consensus), with EBITDA growing around +11% (€ 70 M vs. € 73 M consensus), meaning around a +130bps improvement to margins. If our 3Q’24 numbers are confirmed, we think 2024 targets may potentially be lowered, which is not yet priced in by the market and which could be around -5%. Thus, although we see a risk of disappointing results, we would take the opportunity to take a position.
Caixabank is an investment company based in Spain. Co. is involved in investment portfolio management activities across two areas: Services and Financial Business and Insurance. In the services area, Co. provides investment solutions for companies involved in the infrastructure, energy, services and entertainment sectors. In the financial business and insurance area, Co. is engaged in the investments for international banks, insurance and specialist financial services. Co. focuses most of its banking investments in India, China, the U.S., and Central and Eastern Europe with a particular interest in retail banking. Co. is also involved in the disinvestments activities.
Viscofan is the parent company of the Viscofan Group. Co. is divided into two major operational subgroups. The companies comprising the Naturin GmbH subgroup are engaged in the manufacture and distribution of artificial casings (small and big diameter collagen and plastics) for the meat industry. Through its wholly-owned subsidiary IAN, S.A., Co. also manufactures and distributes canned vegetables (asparagus, olives and tomato).
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