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IBERIAN DAILY 09 MAY + 1Q’25 RESULTS. HIGHLIGHTS AND REST OF PREVIEWS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: CAF, CELLNEX, INMOBILIARIA COLONIAL, MELIÁ.


At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with positive and negative results highlights and previews for the 1Q’25 results to be released over the coming days in Spain.

Euro STOXX 50 nearing April highs
European stock markets rose following the Fed meeting and progress made in tariff matters. In the STOXX 600, the best-performing sectors were Industrials and Technology, whereas defensive bond proxies like Utilities and Real Estate suffered the biggest losses. On the macro side, in Germany industrial output rose more than expected in March. In the UK, with 7 of 9 votes in favour of a cut, the BoE lowered interest rates by -25bps as expected to 4.25%. In the subsequent statement, the body mentioned advances in deflation and worse global growth forecasts due to tariffs. In the US, weekly jobless claims fell more than expected. The agreement with the UK keeps tariffs at 10% (including the first 100,000 vehicles), but those on steel and aluminium are eliminated in exchange for greater access to US chemicals and machinery. In Japan, April’s household spending rose more than expected. In China, the trade surplus was higher than expected in view of the strong increase in exports to Asia and Europe. In US business results, ConocoPhillips was in line, Warner Bros released worse earnings than expected and Microchip Technology beat expectations.
What we expect for today
Stock markets would open with a slightly bullish slant that could lose momentum throughout the session. Currently, S&P futures are up +0.05% (the S&P 500 ended -0.65% lower vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are mixed (China’s CSI 300 -0.14% and Japan’s Nikkei +1.52%).
Today in Brazil we will learn April’s inflation and in China April’s M2. In US business results, Alliant Energy, among others, will release its earnings.


COMPANY NEWS

CAF. Good results (above the market consensus) and the strong commercial momentum continues. OVERWEIGHT
Good results, above the market consensus an in line with our estimates, where we stress the strong commercial activity (order intake € 2.03 Bn, +356% vs. 1Q’24), double-digit sales growth (+10.9%), mainly fuelled by Solaris); and the improvement in profitability (with 40bps margin expansion). The company reiterated its 2025 guidance. The results saw a positive market reaction yesterday (+2.8% vs. +0% IBEX) despite the good share price performance in 2025 (+24% vs. +16% IBEX) thanks mainly to the results delivery and the continuation of the strong commercial activity that led the backlog to record levels once more (> € 15.5 Bn, > 3.5x sales).

INMOBILIARIA COLONIAL. Results very much in line with forecasts. OVERWEIGHT
The results beat our expectations due to a larger contribution from the net asset balance in the scope of consolidation. Rental revenues reached € 97 M (+1% vs. -0.2% BS(e)), EBITDA € 74.6 M (+3% vs. -1% BS(e)). LfL rental revenues are in line with forecasts, coming in at +4% (vs. +4% BS(e)), thanks to the indexation and improved prices in renewals. EBITDA (+3%) rose slightly more than revenues due to lower operating costs and other revenues. Recurring EPS remained flat due to the larger amount of shares following the capital increase. The company reiterated its guidance’25. We do not expect an impact from this set of results.

MELIÁ. 1Q’25 EBITDA below expectations. No EBITDA’25 guidance given. OVERWEIGHT
The 1Q’25 EBITDA came in below expectations (-4.5% vs. +3.9% BS(e) and +3.2% consensus), with a worse margin (20.6% vs. 21.6% BS(e) and 21.5% consensus), affected partly by the reduced third-party management commissions (mainly in Cuba; RevPAR falling around -21% vs. 1Q’24), as well as restructuring costs, although these were not specified. The company expects this to be a one-off and not to pass on to other quarters. The guidance’25 in RevPAR was maintained (mid-single-digit growth), although no EBITDA’25 guidance was given, which we understand is due to the macroeconomic uncertainty. We believe the reception could be negative, although the poor performance in 2025 (around -30% vs. IBEX 35) could limit the drop.