Report
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IBERIAN DAILY 03 MARCH (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: NATURGY.

The Middle East war shakes stock markets
March kicked off with high volatility in risk assets after the joint attack of the US on Iran last weekend. The Ibex saw a correction of around -3%, falling below 18,000 points. In the STOXX 600, all sectors with the exception of Energy ended with drops, led by Autos and Consumer Goods. On the macro side, in the euro zone February’s final PMI confirmed the preliminary data of 50.8, whereas in Spain it climbed more than expected to a level consistent with expansion (50). In Germany, January’s retail sales slowed down, as opposed to expectations. In the US, September’s manufacturing ISM fell less than expected but the price index rose to Aug’22 levels. In Japan January’s unemployment rate climbed more than expected. On the geopolitical front, D. Trump warned that the worst of the war is not over yet and it could take longer than the 4-5 weeks initially planned whereas Iran attacks with drones a refinery plant in Saudi Arabia and a LNG plant in Qatar, forcing the shutdown of the latter. In US 4Q’25 results MongoDB beat earnings expectations (with disappointing guidance), Harrow Helth came in worse than expected.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open once again fall around -1.0%, with the oil sector once again in positive numbers. Iran claims Hormuz Strait is closed and threatened to attack any vessel passing through it, which should continue to add upward pressure on oil and gas prices. Currently, S&P futures are down -0.8% (the S&P 500 ended +0.4% higher vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are sliding (China’s CSI 300 -1.5%, Japan’s Nikkei -3.3% and South Korea’s Kospi -7.2%).
Today in the euro zone we will learn February’s inflation and in Brazil the 4Q’25 GDP.



COMPANY NEWS

NATURGY. GIP sells 11.4% of the capital. UNDERWEIGHT
GIP (11.4% NTGY) has sold its entire stake through an accelerated bookbuild among qualified investors at a price of € 25.20/sh. (around -6% vs. yesterday’s closing price; around +2% vs. the first placement in December). Following this placement, BlackRock holds 1.2% of NTGY and the company’s free float would rise to ~35%. The company’s shareholding reshuffling will continue, as both CriteriaCaixa (26% NTGY) and IFM (15.169%) maintain a long-term investment view and would wish to continue to increase their stakes, and with a potential divestiture by CVC (13.8%) and Alba (5.01%). Today the share price should adjust towards the price of the placement.
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