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IBERIAN DAILY 13 APRIL (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: OHLA.

Trump announces blockage of Strait of Hormuz after failed peace talks
Stock markets recovered ground last week, maintaining a positive slant with oil falling from the highs reached during the conflict and returning to below US$ 100/barrel in view of the hopes regarding US-Iran peace talks. Added to this are the talks to reach a peace deal between Zelenskyy and Putin. In the STOXX 600, the best-performing sectors were Banks and Construction, whereas Household Goods and Energy (following the drop in oil prices) ended with the biggest losses. On the macro side, in Germany March’s final inflation rose in line with expectations. In the US, March’s inflation rose to a four-year high, but both the general and core figures came in below expectations on the YoY level. Meanwhile, April’s U. Michigan consumer confidence fell below 50. In Mexico, February’s industrial output rose less than expected vs. the previous month. In Brazil, March’s inflation showed a higher MoM and YoY rise than expected. In geopolitics, after negotiations with Iran fell through, Trump announced the Strait of Hormuz is blocked to ships sailing to and from Irani ports and/or that have paid the toll, while there have been reports that China would be sending arms to Iran. In Hungary, Viktor Orban was defeated in the presidential elections, with the conservative candidate P. Magyar winning with an absolute majority.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with losses of around -1.0%, affected by the rise in oil and gas prices stemming from the failed peace talks between the US and Iran. Currently, S&P futures are down -0.7% (the S&P 500 ended flat vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are falling (China’s CSI 300 -0.1%, Japan’s Nikkei closed and South Korea’s Kospi -1.00%).
Today in the US we will learn March’s second-hand home sales.


COMPANY NEWS

OHLA, OVERWEIGHT
According to the press, José Elías (thus far ~8.7% OHLA prior to the latest sales) would have offloaded ~3% of his stake in the company and would be studying the possibility of selling his remaining 5% position although the press also outlines he would not lower his stake from that level to keep his tax advantages.
The sale of J. Elías’s stake does not come as a surprise, and we continue to believe that it is the main risk for the share price after the lock-up that prevented him to lower his stake below 5% expired in Feb’26 (he entered into the company through a capital increase at € 0.25/sh.). Other relevant shareholders: Amodio family 21.62% and Andrés Holzer 8.4%.
Following the positive performance of the share price (+36% YTD; +31% vs. IBEX) we place our T.P. of € 0.47/sh. Under Revision, maintaining our OVERWEIGHT recommendation.