IBERIAN DAILY 12 MARCH (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)
NEWS SUMMARY: ELECTRICITY SECTOR, REDEIA.
The geopolitical risk remains
There were drops once again on stock markets, pressured by the new rally by Brent crude (+4.7%) in view of the attacks on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, and despite the fact that the IEA unanimously agreed to release 400 M barrels of oil to mitigate the impact from the energy crisis on the global economy (vs. 182 M barrels in 2022 due to the war in Ukraine). In the STOXX 600, only Energy, Retail (due to the gains by Inditex after presenting earnings) and Media ended in green, whereas Real Estate and Financial Services suffered the biggest corrections. On the macro side, in Spain January’s retail sales slowed their advance. In the US, as expected, February’s inflation figure remained at the 2.4% from the previous month, with the core figure also repeating at the previous 2.5%, although WTI above US$ 85/barrel should push inflation up to 3.0% in the coming months. In Brazil, January’s retail sales rose more than expected. In geopolitics, Trump reiterated that the war with Iran will end soon, but Iran intensified the bombing of oil tankers, of Bahrain and of the ports of Oman and Iraq, which decided to suspend activity in all its terminals. The EU would be considering the possibility of once again setting a price ceiling on gas. In trade matters, investigations continue under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 on 16 “trade partners” (among them China and the EU) to replace taxes on imports that were annulled by the Supreme Court.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with drops of around -1.0%. Currently, S&P futures are down -0.8% (the S&P 500 ended +0.15% higher vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are falling (China’s CSI 300 -0.48%, Japan’s Nikkei -1.26% and South Korea’s Kospi -0.51%).
Today in the US we will learn weekly jobless claims, building permits, housing starts and the trade balance for January.