REPSOL: TRADING STATEMENT 2T’20 (ANÃLISIS BANCO SABADELL)
Con el trading statement, Rdos. 2T’20 pobres pero ya descontados. La clave el guidance 2S’20. COMPRAR.El trading statement 2T’20 (publica Rdos. el 23/07) no deberÃa sorprender ni en precio del crudo (-41% vs 1T’20 hasta 29,6 dólares vs 29 BS(e) 2020), ni en producción (-10% hasta 640 kboe vs 650 BS(e) 2020) ni en margen de refino (-36% hasta 3 dólares vs 4 BS(e) 2020 y 3,9 de media a 1S’20). Estimamos un BDI del 2T’20 de -311 M euros que deja el dato a 1S’20 en 136 vs 757 BS(e) 2020 y 695 el consenso. No esperamos reacción a los Rdos sino al guidance de la call. Creemos que REP tiene recorrido para reaccionar al alza si éste es ligeramente positivo pues desde mÃnimos de marzo, REP sólo ha recuperado el 37% de la caÃda vs 45% su sector y 60% el crudo. La acción descuenta un precio del crudo a largo plazo ligeramente por encima de 40 dólares vs nuestra estimación de 53.
Repsol is an oil and gas company. Co. is engaged in all the activities relating to the oil and gas industry, including exploration, development and production of crude oil and natural gas, transportation of oil products, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and natural gas, refining, the production of a wide range of oil products and the retailing of oil products, oil derivatives, petrochemicals, LPG and natural gas, as well as the generation, transportation, distribution and supply of electricity. Co. operates in more than 40 countries. Co.'s operations are divided into four segments: Upstream, Downstream, LNG and Gas Natural Fenosa.
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