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ROVI: MODERNA ANNOUNCES ITS COVID-19 VACCINE IS 94.5% EFFECTIVE (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

Moderna announces that its Covid-19 vaccine is 94.5% effective. SELL.
Moderna announced yesterday that its Covid-19 vaccine candidate is 94.5% effective according to provisional data. With this news, we include in our T.P. the impact on ROVI, assuming a base-case scenario of ~550 M vaccines sold annually outside of the US and Japan (vs. a range of between 500 M and 1 Bn doses that Moderna plans to commercialise globally in 2021) and a unit revenue of €~0.75/vaccine for ROVI (>3.5% of the vaccine’s full price), which means a €+6.50/sh. increase to our T.P. (+22% vs. previous) to € 36.00/sh., still not yielding upside. Since the announcement of the agreement with Moderna on the 9th ofJuly’20, ROVI’s market cap has increased by >€ 750 M (+53%), factoring in annual sales of Moderna’s vaccine outside the US of around 600 M units /annually and unit revenues for ROVI > € 1.00/vaccine, which is overly optimistic, in our view.
Underlying
Laboratorios Farmaceuticos Rovi S.A.

Laboratorios Farmaceuticos Rovi is engaged in the sale of its own pharmaceutical products and the distribution of other products for which it holds licenses granted by other laboratories for specific periods, in accordance with the terms and conditions contained in the agreements entered into with said laboratories.

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Sabadell
Sabadell

Analysts
Research Department

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