Commodities Daily - August 21, 2019

> Brent pushes above $60/bbl on API inventory draw; EIA report imminent. Today, we expect the EIA to show a 2-3 mln bbl crude oil stock draw (with the risks skewed toward an even larger drawdown than toward a buildup, in our view) and no gasoline inventory build amid seasonally strong demand, despite higher refinery production. We think this could push Brent toward $62/bbl later today given a lack of stock market headwinds. Today's US existing home sales data and FOMC minutes (likely hawkish and dollar-supportive) are risk factors for positive oil momentum today.> Gold remains at $1,500/oz ahead of the July FOMC minutes today. Politics dominated market headlines yesterday, with the Italian prime minister resigning and the EU refusing to consider alternatives to a backstop for the Ireland-UK border. Today, investors will be focused on minutes from the FOMC meeting in July and also looking forward to Fed Chairman Powell's speech on Friday at the Jackson Hole summit. We see downside risk for gold and think prices could test the $1,475/oz level.