Commodities Daily - March 19, 2019

> Oil range-bound on shift in OPEC+ 2H19 output cut decision from April to June and EIA's US shale production growth forecast for April. Today, investors will eye US factory and durable goods orders at 17:00 Moscow time and the weekly API oil inventory data at 23:30 Moscow time. Brent remains range-bound between its 50-day moving average ($63.95/bbl) and its 50% Fibonacci retracement level from the October correction ($67.85/bbl). Key for us this week is whether it will be able to hold above the latter after the weekly US inventory updates; it failed to do so last week. Today, as yesterday, we expect Brent to trade flat within a $67-68/bbl range.> Gold prices edging higher. The dollar was on the decline last week and yesterday in the lead-up to the two-day FOMC meeting that begins today. At the moment, the gold market has not fully priced in both an altered rate outlook and an announcement on a halt to the balance sheet run-off. With that in mind, we see potential for gold to rise another 1-2% from its current $1,305/oz over the coming days.