Russian FX/Rates - Fiscal Rule Limits Upside for Ruble and OFZs in 2019
Introduced in 2017, the fiscal rule - and the FX purchases mandated by it - seems to have largely accomplished its main objectives of delinking the ruble from oil prices and helping accumulate reserves. In addition, the temporary halt in purchases that started in August has proven the fiscal rule is capable of calming the market in times of heightened geopolitical tension and curbing volatility. But now the questions of when and how the purchases will be resumed and when and how the forgone purchases will be made up hang over the Russian FX and rates markets. In this note, we give our thoughts on these questions, as well as explain how the fiscal rule works and lay out our forecasts for the ruble, rates and OFZs next year.
Sberbank CIB Investment Research is a research firm offering equity, fixed income, economics, and strategy research. It covers analysis on all aspects of Russia’s capital markets, issues and industries. The firm analyzes trends in Russia and combines local knowledge with a global perspective. It processes macroeconomic data, market and company-specific news, stock quotes and other information for providing research reports. The firm provides details and latest prices on the most traded names and most traded paper on all segments Russian market. In strategy research, it provides thematic research, tips and descriptions of the methodology used to evaluate companies.
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Browse all ResearchPool reportsReport is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.