Report
Peter Thilo Hasler

Deutliche Gewinnwarnung

Gestern Nacht hat Pantaflix eine Gewinnwarnung ausgesprochen. Aufgrund von Verzögerungen bei der Abnahme zweier Filme rechnet der Vorstand bei unverändert steigenden Erlösen nunmehr mit einem operativen Verlust von EUR -7 bis -9 Mio., was deutlich unter dem durch Einmaleffekte aus dem Abschluss von Kooperations- und Vermittlungsverträgen verzerrten Vorjahreswert liegt. Ursächlich für die starke Verschlechterung der Ertragslage sind nach unserer Einschätzung der im Zuge des Video-on-Demand-Einstiegs notwendige Personalaufbau sowie deutlich steigende Marketing- und Entwicklungsaufwendungen. Da diese aus unserer Sicht auch in den kommenden Jahren die Ertragslage belasten werden, nehmen wir auch unsere EBIT-Prognosen für die Folgejahre zurück und ermitteln aus unserem DCF-Entity-Modell im Base-Case-Szenario ein Kursziel von EUR 0,90 (bislang: EUR 3,10) je Aktie (jeweils bereinigt um den Aktiensplit). Angesichts eines von uns erwarteten Kursrückgangs von -70,1% bestätigen wir unser Sell-Rating für die Aktien der Pantaflix AG.

Underlying
Pantaleon Entertainment Ord Shs

Pantaflix AG, formerly known as PANTALEON Entertainment AG, is a Germany-based company, which is primarily engaged in the entertinment industry. The Company operates as a provider of video-on-demand platform Pantaflix where filmmakers and rights holders can upload and manage their content directly, make it available in across the world.

Provider
Sphene Capital GmbH
Sphene Capital GmbH

Founded in 2010, Sphene Capital is a German based pure-play research house offering state-of-the-art research and evaluation services to European small- and mid-caps by avoiding typical conflict of interests of traditional investment banks.

As a general rule, analysts of Sphene Capital strive to understand companies better than any other analyst or investor before publishing their initiation reports. Therefore, the comprehensive initiation research reports comprise of 50-80 pages, including an extensive analysis of the value chain of the IPO candidate, its unique selling proposition, an elaborate analysis of suppliers and clients, a thorough SWOT analysis, a commercial due diligence (i. e. market and competitive analysis), an integrated financial forecast model and a profound company valuation (both DCF methodology and peer group multiples). Before publication, each of Sphene Capital’s research report will be double-checked by a fellow research colleague (“Four-eyes-principle”), ensuring highest quality and avoiding careless mistakes.

After initiation of research coverage, Sphene Capital publishes regular updates of 12-30 pages following relevant news flow from the issuer or major peers, f. ex. after acquisitions or after publication of quarterly results.

Due to Sphene Capital’s extensive experience in equity and bond research, the team has established longstanding contacts to all relevant market players, i. e. institutional investors, family offices and high net-worth individuals as well as journalists. To each of these groups, Sphene Capital’s research analysts have regular contacts during analyst and management roadshows or via daily phone calls. Finally, analysts publish articles in selected stock markets magazines and websites in which the analysts help issuers to improve their popularity on the German capital markets.

Analysts
Peter Thilo Hasler

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