Restart of a technology leader in laboratory automation
With a share price target of EUR 7.70 and an expected share price performance of 176.0%, we initiate research coverage on the shares of Ikonisys SA with a Buy rating. Our price target is derived from a three-stage discounted cash flow entity model (primary valuation method), for which we calculate an equity value of EUR 7.70 per share in the base case scenario. In a Monte Carlo analysis, we have used alternative revenue, earnings and other key performance indicator scenarios and calculate equity values in a range between EUR and 6.10 per 9.20 share. An alternative economic profit model supports the results of the DCF model, while significantly higher price targets can be derived from peer group multiples (both secondary valuation methods).
Ikonisys is a provider of a robotic and software-based microscopy application that, according to the company, enables fully automated detection and quantification of rare and very rare cells in tissues and biological fluids. This is used in particular for cell diagnosis in oncology and genetic diseases. With the help of the FDA-approved Ikoniscope microscope, up to 2 million cells can be automatically scanned and analysed on a single slide without the manual involvement of laboratory staff. Ikonisys provides a range of diagnostic fluorescence in situ hybridisation (FISH) tests that can be used to visualise different types of cancer at an early stage using fluorescent tumour markers. We see considerable additional potential in the recently possible detection and characterisation of circulating tumour cells (CTCs) in liquid biopsies.
Ikonisys will generate one-off revenues from the production and sale of the Ikoniscope and recurring revenues from the sale of platform-optimised own-brand probe kits, software applications and service agreements on the maintenance of the devices. Due to the pursued outsourcing of production, we estimate that expenses are mostly variable. We expect Ikonisys to generate its first significant revenues from microscope sales in 2022e. By 2026e, we expect revenues to rise to EUR 35.7m and the operating result (EBITDA) to just under EUR 10.0m in our base case scenario. The equity ratio of the virtually debt-free company should then be 85.3%.
Founded in 2010, Sphene Capital is a German based pure-play research house offering state-of-the-art research and evaluation services to European small- and mid-caps by avoiding typical conflict of interests of traditional investment banks.
As a general rule, analysts of Sphene Capital strive to understand companies better than any other analyst or investor before publishing their initiation reports. Therefore, the comprehensive initiation research reports comprise of 50-80 pages, including an extensive analysis of the value chain of the IPO candidate, its unique selling proposition, an elaborate analysis of suppliers and clients, a thorough SWOT analysis, a commercial due diligence (i. e. market and competitive analysis), an integrated financial forecast model and a profound company valuation (both DCF methodology and peer group multiples). Before publication, each of Sphene Capital’s research report will be double-checked by a fellow research colleague (“Four-eyes-principle”), ensuring highest quality and avoiding careless mistakes.
After initiation of research coverage, Sphene Capital publishes regular updates of 12-30 pages following relevant news flow from the issuer or major peers, f. ex. after acquisitions or after publication of quarterly results.
Due to Sphene Capital’s extensive experience in equity and bond research, the team has established longstanding contacts to all relevant market players, i. e. institutional investors, family offices and high net-worth individuals as well as journalists. To each of these groups, Sphene Capital’s research analysts have regular contacts during analyst and management roadshows or via daily phone calls. Finally, analysts publish articles in selected stock markets magazines and websites in which the analysts help issuers to improve their popularity on the German capital markets.
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Browse all ResearchPool reportsReport is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.