Report
Peter Thilo Hasler

Ãœbertriebener Kursverfall nach Gewinnanpassung

Angesichts eines sich verschlechternden Marktumfeldes hat Surteco die Ertragserwartungen für das laufende Geschäftsjahr gesenkt. Ungeachtet dessen wird Surteco in diesem Jahr die Profitabilität – verglichen mit 2017 – auf allen Ebenen deutlich verbessern. Insbesondere aber halten wir unsere langfristigen Erwartungen aufrecht, dass es gelingt, die Profitabilität im Zuge der Wachstumsstrategie Surteco 2025+ dauerhaft zu erhöhen. Nach Anpassung unserer mittelfristigen Ertragserwartungen nehmen wir aus einem dreistufigen DCF-Entity-Modell abgeleitetes Kursziel auf EUR 37,00 von bislang EUR 41,00 je Aktie (Base-Case-Szenario) zurück. Aus einer Monte-Carlo-Simulation ermitteln wir Bear- bzw. Bull-Case-Werte von EUR 19,40 bzw. EUR 52,70, aus einem Dividendendiskontierungsmodell ein mittelfristiges Kursziel von EUR 49,30 je Aktie. Aktuell wird die Aktie mit dem 11,3-fachen unserer 2019er EPS-Schätzungen gehandelt, was unter dem DAX-KGV von 13,8x liegt. Auch die Dividendenrendite von 5,2% (2019e) sollte nach u. E. für Unterstützung sorgen. Angesichts einer von uns im Base-Case-Szenario erwarteten Kursperformance von 37,5% bestätigen wir unser Buy-Rating für die Aktien der Surteco Group SE.

Underlying
Surteco Group SE

Surteco Group SE, formerly SURTECO SE, is a Germany-based developer, designer, producer and marketer of surface materials based on paper and plastics. The Company operates through two segments: Paper and Plastics. The Paper segment comprises the production and sale of paper-based edge bandings, finish foils, impregnates, release paper and decor papers, and the Plastics segment includes the production and sale of thermoplastic edgings, foils, roller shutter systems, technical extrusions (profiles), skirting, and extrusions for flooring wholesalers, home improvement and do-it-yourself stores. The Company markets products under the Surteco Decor, Canplast, Dakor and Praktikus brands, among others. It operates approximately 20 production and sales locations in Europe, the Americas, Asia and Australia.

Provider
Sphene Capital GmbH
Sphene Capital GmbH

Founded in 2010, Sphene Capital is a German based pure-play research house offering state-of-the-art research and evaluation services to European small- and mid-caps by avoiding typical conflict of interests of traditional investment banks.

As a general rule, analysts of Sphene Capital strive to understand companies better than any other analyst or investor before publishing their initiation reports. Therefore, the comprehensive initiation research reports comprise of 50-80 pages, including an extensive analysis of the value chain of the IPO candidate, its unique selling proposition, an elaborate analysis of suppliers and clients, a thorough SWOT analysis, a commercial due diligence (i. e. market and competitive analysis), an integrated financial forecast model and a profound company valuation (both DCF methodology and peer group multiples). Before publication, each of Sphene Capital’s research report will be double-checked by a fellow research colleague (“Four-eyes-principle”), ensuring highest quality and avoiding careless mistakes.

After initiation of research coverage, Sphene Capital publishes regular updates of 12-30 pages following relevant news flow from the issuer or major peers, f. ex. after acquisitions or after publication of quarterly results.

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Analysts
Peter Thilo Hasler

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