JD will report 3Q23 results on November 15th before the US markets open with a 7am ET conference call. We are neutral on JD’s short-term performance but remain positive on 3Q23 margins and bottom line. Retail data for 3Q23 show a potential turn in China’s economy, as retail hit the low in July with 2.5% Y/Y growth; however, Y/Y growth recovered to 4.5% in August and 5.5% Y/Y in September. The slower than expected economic recovery has put pressure on e-commerce companies in China. The central government’s economic stimulus did not officially come until August 2023 as a decision was made from the Politburo Meeting on Economy on July 24th. In the last 10 consecutive months, the central bank has been conducting aggressive MLF (medium-term lending facility) operations. In September alone, MLF was RMB591B. We believe the abundance of liquidity is likely to be reflected in China’s economy sooner or later.
T.H. Capital is an independent research and investment advisory firm specializing in China. We offers real-time, on-the-ground, bottom-up research across a wide spectrum from macro and industry analysis to company specific projects; from China ADRs to international names that have meaningful exposure to China market. We deliver relevant, comprehensive and data driven research adding immense value to clients.
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