JD: Positive On JD’s 2023 Outlook Starting From 1Q23, While Expecting Good 4Q22 Performance Despite COVID Resurgence
We are positive on JD’s 4Q22 performance as well as 1Q23 and full year 2023 outlook. For 1Q23, we believe consensus at 7.4% Y/Y growth is conservative as: 1) More enthusiasm to celebrate Chinese New Year Lantern Festival and Valentine’s Day in 1Q this year. Last year’s celebrations were more muted under COVID restrictions and people were staying put; 2) there is one additional holiday this year falling in 1Q - based on the Chinese lunar calendar, there will be two Spring Festivals on January 22nd and February 4th; and 3) the Chinese government is determined to stimulate consumption with coupons and other measures. For full year 2023, consensus at 14.4% Y/Y growth is also conservative, in our view, as the base for 2022 is abnormally low. We believe JD is likely to grow in the range of 20% - 32% Y/Y for 2023.
T.H. Capital is an independent research and investment advisory firm specializing in China. We offers real-time, on-the-ground, bottom-up research across a wide spectrum from macro and industry analysis to company specific projects; from China ADRs to international names that have meaningful exposure to China market. We deliver relevant, comprehensive and data driven research adding immense value to clients.
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