Report
Valens Research

Valens Equity Insights and Inflections - 2019 12 10

FLS currently trades above corporate averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) Earnings, with a 24.3x Uniform P/E. At these levels, the market is pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to rebound from 8% in 2018 to 14% in 2023, accompanied by immaterial Uniform Asset growth going forward. Analysts have similar expectations, projecting Uniform ROA to rise to 11% by 2020, accompanied by immaterial Uniform Asset shrinkage. However, management may be concerned about their EPS, margin, and aftermarket segment. Current valuations appear to be pricing in overly bullish expectations for FLS, and should they see profitability remain stable or contract, as negative management sentiment would suggest, material downside would be warranted.
PTC Q4 2019 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for record Uniform ROA, but management may be concerned about market share, revenue growth, and guidance

SQ Q3 2019 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA expansion, but management may be concerned about cross selling, their competitive moat, and customer retention
PLD Q3 2019 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to reach all-time highs, but management may be concerned about warehouse demand, weather, and coastal development

FLS, PLD, PTC, SQ, ALV, AMAT, BDX, BMRN, CMCS.A, CSTM, CVI, DISH, EA, GILD, KBH, KMI, MLM, MMM, PYPL, UPS
Underlyings
3M COMPANY

3M is a technology company. The company has four segments: Safety and Industrial, which consists of personal safety, industrial adhesives and tapes, abrasives, closure and masking systems, electrical markets, automotive aftermarket, and roofing granules; Transportation and Electronics, which consists of electronics, automotive and aerospace, commercial solutions, advanced materials, and transportation safety; Health Care, which includes medical solutions, oral care, separation and purification sciences, health information systems, drug delivery systems, and food safety; and Consumer, which consists of home improvement, stationery and office supplies, home care, and consumer health care.

Applied Materials Inc.

Applied Materials provides manufacturing equipment, services and software to the semiconductor, display and related industries. The company's segments are: Semiconductor Systems, which develops, manufactures and sells a range of manufacturing equipment used to fabricate semiconductor chips; Applied Global Services, which provides integrated solutions to support equipment and fab performance and productivity; and Display and Adjacent Markets, which is comprised of products for manufacturing liquid crystal displays, organic light-emitting diodes and other display technologies for TVs, monitors, laptops, personal computers, electronic tablets, smart phones, and other consumer-oriented devices.

Autoliv Inc.

Becton Dickinson and Company

Becton, Dickinson and Company is a medical technology company engaged in the development, manufacture and sale of a range of medical supplies, devices, laboratory equipment and diagnostic products. The company's segments are: BD Medical, which produces an array of medical technologies and devices that are used to help improve healthcare delivery in a range of settings; BD Life Sciences, which provides products for the safe collection and transport of diagnostics specimens, and instruments and reagent systems to detect a range of infectious diseases, healthcare-associated infections and cancers; and BD Interventional, which provides vascular, urology, oncology and surgical products.

BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc.

BioMarin Pharmaceutical is a biotechnology company that develops and commercializes therapies for people with serious and life-threatening rare diseases and medical conditions. The company's commercial products are Aldurazyme (laronidase) for Mucopolysaccharidosis I; Brineura (cerliponase alfa) for the treatment of late infantile neuronal ceroid lipofuscinosis type 2; Kuvan (sapropterin dihydrochloride) for the treatment of phenylketonuria; Naglazyme (galsulfase) the treatment of Mucopolysaccharidosis VI ; Palynziq (pegvaliase-pqpz) for adult patients with phenylketonuria; and Vimizim (elosulfase alpha) for the treatment of Mucopolysaccharidosis IV Type A.

Comcast Corporation Class A

Comcast is a media and technology company. The company's segments are: Cable Communications, which provides internet, video, voice, and security and automation services in the United States individually and as bundled services at a discounted rate over its cable distribution system to residential and business customers; NBCUniversal, which includes a portfolio of national cable networks that provide a variety of entertainment, news and information, and sports content, regional sports and news networks, international cable networks, and cable television studio production operations; and Sky, which owns a portfolio of pay television channels that provide entertainment, news, sports and movies.

Constellium SE Class A

Constellium N.V. designs and manufactures a range of innovative specialty rolled and extruded aluminum products, serving primarily the aerospace, packaging and automotive end-markets. Co. has a strategic footprint of manufacturing facilities located in the United States, Europe and China. Co.'s product portfolio commands higher margins as compared to less differentiated, more commoditized fabricated aluminum products, such as common alloy coils, paintstock, foilstock and soft alloys for construction and distribution. Co. organizes its business around three operating segments: Aerospace & Transportation, Packaging & Automotive Rolled Products, and Automotive Structures & Industry.

CVR Energy Inc.

CVR Energy is a holding company. The company is engaged in the petroleum refining and nitrogen fertilizer manufacturing industries through its holdings in CVR Refining, LP (CVR Refining) and CVR Partners, LP (CVR Partners). CVR Refining is an independent petroleum refiner and marketer of transportation fuels. CVR Partners produces and markets nitrogen fertilizers in the form of urea ammonium nitrate and ammonia. The company's segments include: Petroleum, which includes refineries located in Coffeyville, KS and Wynnewood, OK and supporting logistics assets in the region; and Nitrogen Fertilizer, which includes nitrogen fertilizer manufacturing facilities located in Coffeyville, KS and East Dubuque, IL.

DISH Network Corporation Class A

DISH Network is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company operates two business segments: Pay-TV and Wireless. The company provides pay-TV services under: the DISH? brand, which consists of, among other things, Federal Communications Commission licenses authorizing the company to use direct broadcast satellite and Fixed Satellite Service spectrum, the company's owned and leased satellites, and certain other assets utilized in the company's operations; and the Sling? brand, which consists of, among other things, live-linear streaming over-the-top Internet-based domestic, international and Latino video programming services. In addition, the company invests to acquire certain wireless spectrum licenses and related assets.

Electronic Arts Inc.

Electronic Arts develops, markets, publishes and distributes games, content and services that can be played and watched on a variety of platforms, including game consoles, personal computers, and mobile phones. The company markets and sells its games and services through digital distribution channels and through retail channels. Digitally, the company's console games and services can be purchased through third-party storefronts. In its games and services, the company utilizes brands that it either wholly own or license from others. The company develops and publishes games and services across genres. Within and alongside its games, the company provides live services, including in-game purchases, downloadable content, and esports.

Flowserve Corporation

Flowserve is a manufacturer and aftermarket service provider of flow control systems. The company develops and manufactures flow control equipment integral to the movement, control and protection of the flow of materials in its customers' processes. The company's segments are: Flowserve Pump Division, which are for custom, pumps, pre-configured industrial pumps, pump systems, mechanical seals, auxiliary systems and replacement parts and related services; and Flow Control Division, which are for engineered and industrial valves, control valves, actuators and controls and related services.

Gilead Sciences Inc.

Gilead Sciences is a research-based biopharmaceutical company that discovers, develops and commercializes medicines. The company's primary areas of focus include viral diseases, inflammatory and fibrotic diseases and oncology. The company's products include: Biktarvy for the treatment of HIV-1 infection in certain patients; Vosevi?, a single tablet regimen of sofosbuvir, velpatasvir and voxilaprevir for the re-treatment of chronic hepatitis C virus infection in adults; Vemlidy? for the treatment of chronic hepatitis B virus infection in adults with compensated liver disease; and Yescarta (axicabtagene ciloleucel) for the treatment of adult patients with relapsed or refractory large B-cell lymphoma.

KB Home

KB Home is a homebuilding company. The company builds a variety of homes designed primarily for first-time and first move-up, as well as second move-up and active adult homebuyers, including attached and detached single-family residential homes, townhomes and condominiums. The company's financial services operations provide various insurance products to its homebuyers in the markets where it builds homes and provide title services in certain of those markets. The company's financial services operations also provide mortgage banking services, including residential consumer mortgage loan originations, to its homebuyers indirectly through KBHS Home Loans, LLC, a joint venture the company formed with Stearns Lending, LLC.

Kinder Morgan Inc Class P

Kinder Morgan is an energy infrastructure company. The company's segments are: Natural Gas Pipelines, which includes the ownership and operation of, among others, main interstate and intrastate natural gas pipeline and storage systems; Products Pipelines, which includes the refined petroleum products, crude oil and condensate pipelines; Terminals, which includes the ownership and/or operation of, among others, liquids and bulk terminal facilities; and carbon dioxide (CO2), which includes the production, transportation and marketing of CO2, ownership interests in and/or operation of oil fields and gasoline processing plants in West Texas.

Martin Marietta Materials Inc.

Martin Marietta Materials is a natural resource-based building materials company. The company supplies aggregates (crushed stone, sand and gravel) through its network of quarries, mines and distribution yards. The company also provides cement and downstream products, namely, ready mixed concrete, asphalt and paving services. The company conducts its Building Materials business through three segments: Mid-America Group, Southeast Group and West Group. The Mid-America and Southeast Groups provide aggregates products only. The West Group provides aggregates, cement and downstream products. The company also has the Magnesia Specialties segment, which includes its magnesia-based chemicals and dolomitic lime businesses.

PayPal Holdings Inc

PayPal Holdings is a technology platform and digital payments company that enables digital and mobile payments on behalf of consumers and merchants worldwide. The company's combined payment solutions include its PayPal, PayPal Credit, Braintree, Venmo, Xoom and iZettle products and services. PayPal's payment solutions enable the company's customers to send and receive payments. PayPal helps merchants and consumers connect, transact, and complete payments, whether they are online, on a mobile device, in an app, or in person. The company provides proprietary payment solutions accepted by merchants that enable the completion of payments on the company's Payments Platform on behalf of its customers.

Prologis Inc.

Prologis is a self-administered and self-managed real estate investment trust and is the sole general partner of Prologis, L.P. The company owns, manages and develops logistics facilities, with a focus on the consumption side of the global supply chain. Most of the company's properties in the United States are wholly owned, while its properties outside the United States are primarily held in co-investment ventures. The company has two segments: Real Estate Operations, which represents the ownership and development of operating properties, and includes land held for development and properties under development; and Strategic Capital, which represents the management of unconsolidated co-investment ventures.

PTC INC.

PTC is a software and services company. The company's products and services include: 3D Modeling, which enables users to create designs, analyze designs, perform engineering calculations and utilize the information created downstream using 2D, 3D, parametric and direct modeling; Lifecycle Management, which enables product data management, as well as communication and collaboration across the enterprise, including product development, manufacturing and the supply chain; Data Orchestration, which delivers tools, technologies, and solutions that enable companies to develop and deploy industrial IoT applications; and Experience Creation, which provides a way to capture, create, and deliver content.

Square Inc. Class A

Square is a commerce ecosystem that combines software with hardware to enable sellers to turn mobile devices and computing devices into payment and point-of-sale solutions. With the company's offering, a seller can accept payments via magnetic stripe, Europay, MasterCard, and Visa, or Near Field Communication; or online via Square Invoices, Square Virtual Terminal, or the seller's website or app. Also, sellers can gain access to reporting and analytics, next-day settlements, digital receipts, payment dispute and chargeback management, security, and Payment Card Industry compliance. The company's Cash App enable individuals to send and receive money electronically to and from individuals and businesses.

United Parcel Service Inc. Class B

United Parcel Service provides transportation services, primarily domestic and international letter and package delivery. The company reports its operations in three segments: United States Domestic Package, which includes the time-definite delivery of letters, documents and packages throughout the United States; International Package, which includes delivery to several countries and territories worldwide, including shipments wholly outside the United States, as well as shipments with either origin or destination outside the United States; and Supply Chain & Freight, which includes the company's Forwarding, Logistics, Coyote, Marken, UPS Mail Innovations, UPS Freight and other aggregated business units.

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Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

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