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Valens Research

Valens Equity Insights and Inflections - 2021 03 16

INOV has been steadily improving UAFRS-based (Uniform) ROA the past few years before the pandemic, thanks to its conversion from a dataset company to a healthcare insight software platform with significant growth opportunities. And yet the market doesn't recognize how this can continue to mean accelerating returns and growth going forward.

While the company has one of the few leading healthcare insight platforms not already
captured by a major player like UnitedHealthcare, and currently only has a small share of its potential market of revenue over the coming years, as more players in the space embrace data-driven healthcare, the market is only pricing returns to stay flat with modest growth. As the market recognizes the company's fundamentals, the company has significant upside.

This is especially true as management is likely to execute on growth, as management's sizable ownership of the company's equity aligns them with investors. Also, while management may be concerned about near-term execution, they also look to be sandbagging around full year growth going forward, pointing to fundamental acceleration longer-term.

Considering market expectations that don't capture the company's fundamental upside, management's sound strategy and robust execution, favorable management alignment and
positive management outlook, there appears to be equity upside potential for INOV.


CHTR Q4 2020 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to decline, and management may have concerns about customer churn, infrastructure investments, and their DOCSIS 3.1 technology

ABT Q4 2020 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for continued Uniform ROA expansion, and management is confident about their EPS guidance, COVID-19 testing capacity, and new product launches

ADS Q4 2020 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to reach new lows, but management is confident about investments, Enhanced Digital Suite integration, and capital budgeting

INOV, ABT, ADS, CHTR, AMD, ASGN, CBRL, CMCS.A, CVS, FTDR, GE, GNTX, GRMN, H, KBH, LMT, MA, MSFT, NOW, RTX, SONO, WHR
Underlyings
Abbott Laboratories

Abbott Laboratories is engaged in the discovery, development, manufacture, and sale of a range of health care products. The company's reportable segments are: established pharmaceutical products, which includes a range of generic pharmaceuticals; diagnostic products, which includes a range of diagnostic systems and tests; nutritional products, which includes a range of pediatric and adult nutritional products; and medical devices, which includes a range of rhythm management, electrophysiology, heart failure, vascular and structural heart devices for the treatment of cardiovascular diseases, and diabetes care products for people with diabetes, as well as neuromodulation devices.

Advanced Micro Devices Inc.

Advanced Micro Devices is a semiconductor company. The company primarily provides x86 microprocessors, as standalone devices or as incorporated into an accelerated processing unit, chipsets, graphics processing units (GPUs), data center and personnel GPUs, and development services; server and embedded processors, semi-custom System-on-Chip products, development services and technology for game consoles. The company also licenses portions of its intellectual property portfolio. The company's segments are: Computing and Graphics, which consists of desktop, notebooks, commercial, and chipsets products; and Enterprise, Embedded and Semi-Custom, which includes server processors, and embedded P\processors products.

Alliance Data Systems Corporation

Alliance Data Systems is a provider of data-driven marketing and loyalty solutions. The company operates in two segments: LoyaltyOne? and Card Services. LoyaltyOne provides coalition and short-term loyalty programs through the Canadian AIR MILES? Reward Program and BrandLoyalty Group B.V. Card Services encompasses credit card processing, billing and payment processing, customer care and collections services for private label retailers as well as private label and co-brand retail credit card and loan receivables financing, including securitization and other funding of certain credit card and loan receivables that it underwrites from its private label and co-brand retail credit card programs.

ASGN Inc

ASGN provides information technology (IT) and other services in the technology, digital, creative, engineering and life sciences fields across commercial and government sectors. The company's segments are: Apex, which provides technical, digital, creative, scientific and engineering personnel for contract, contract-to-hire, and permanent placement positions to clients across the United States and Canada; Oxford, which provides staffing and permanent placement services in select skill and geographic markets in the United States and Europe; and ECS, which delivers solutions in cloud, cybersecurity, artificial intelligence, machine learning, application and IT modernization, science and engineering.

Charter Communications Inc. Class A

Charter Communications is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a cable operator and a broadband communications company providing video, Internet and voice services. The company also provides its mobile service to residential customers. In addition, the company sells video and online advertising inventory to local, regional and national advertising customers and communications and managed solutions to enterprise customers. The company also owns and operates regional sports networks and local sports, news and community channels. The company owns and operates a two-way telecommunications network which passes various households and small and medium businesses across United States.

Comcast Corporation Class A

Comcast is a media and technology company. The company's segments are: Cable Communications, which provides internet, video, voice, and security and automation services in the United States individually and as bundled services at a discounted rate over its cable distribution system to residential and business customers; NBCUniversal, which includes a portfolio of national cable networks that provide a variety of entertainment, news and information, and sports content, regional sports and news networks, international cable networks, and cable television studio production operations; and Sky, which owns a portfolio of pay television channels that provide entertainment, news, sports and movies.

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc.

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store is principally engaged in the operation and development of the Cracker Barrel Old Country Store? concept. The format of the company's stores consists of a trademarked rustic old country-store design providing a restaurant menu that features home-style country food and a variety of items such as rocking chairs, holiday and seasonal gifts, toys, apparel, cookware and foods. The company's restaurants serve breakfast, lunch and dinner daily. Lunch and dinner items include southern fried chicken, chicken and dumplings, chicken fried chicken, meatloaf, country fried steak, pork chops, fish, steak, roast beef, vegetable plates, sandwiches and a variety of salads.

CVS Health Corporation

CVS Health is a health company. The company's segments are: Pharmacy Services, which provides a range of pharmacy benefit management solutions, including plan design offerings and administration, formulary management, and retail pharmacy network management services; Retail/Long-Term Care (LTC), which sells prescription drugs and general merchandise, including over-the-counter drugs, provides health care services through its MinuteClinic? walk-in medical clinics and conducts LTC pharmacy operations; and Health Care Benefits, which provides a range of voluntary and consumer-directed health insurance products and related services, including medical, pharmacy, dental and behavioral health plans.

Frontdoor Inc.

Frontdoor is a provider of home service plans in the U.S., and operates under the American Home Shield, HSA, OneGuard and Landmark brands. The company's home service plans help customers protect and maintain their homes, typically their asset, from costly and unplanned breakdowns of essential home systems and appliances. The company's home service plans cover the repair or replacement of main components of household systems and appliances, including electrical, plumbing, central heating, ventilation and air conditioning systems, water heaters, refrigerators, dishwashers and ranges/ovens/cooktops. The company serves customers across various states and the District of Columbia.

Garmin Ltd.

General Electric Company

General Electric is a technology industrial company. The company's segments include: Power, which serves power generation, industrial, government and other customers with products and services related to energy production; Renewable Energy, which engineers and manufactures energy equipment and projects, grid solutions and digital services; Aviation, which designs and produces commercial and military aircraft engines, digital components, electric power and mechanical aircraft systems; Healthcare, which provides healthcare technologies; and Capital, which provides financial products and services that build on the company's industry capabilities in aviation, power, renewables, healthcare and other activities.

Gentex Corporation

Gentex designs and manufactures automatic-dimming rearview mirrors and electronics for the automotive industry, dimmable aircraft windows for the aviation industry, and commercial smoke alarms and signaling devices for the fire protection industry. The company's key business involves designing, developing, manufacturing and marketing interior and exterior automatic-dimming automotive rearview mirrors that use electrochromic technology to dim in proportion to the amount of headlight glare from trailing vehicle headlamps. The company also designs, develops and manufactures various electronics features to the interior and exterior automotive rearview mirrors as well as interior visors and overhead consoles.

Hyatt Hotels Corporation Class A

Hyatt Hotels is a hospitality company engaged in the development, ownership, operation, management, franchising, licensing or provision of services to a portfolio of properties, consisting of full service hotels, select service hotels, resorts, and other properties, including spas and fitness studios, timeshare, fractional, and other forms of residential and vacation properties. The company also manages, provides services to, or licenses its trademarks with respect to residential ownership units that are often adjacent to a Hyatt-branded hotel. Additionally, for condominium ownership units, the company provides services and/or manage the rental programs or homeowner associations associated with such units.

Inovalon Holdings Inc. Class A

Inovalon Holdings is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is engaged in providing cloud-based platforms empowering data-driven healthcare. Through the Inovalon ONE? Platform, the company brings to the marketplace a capability to interconnect with the healthcare ecosystem, aggregate and analyze data in real-time. The company's technology platforms and analytics are informed by data pertaining to physicians, clinical facilities, individuals, and medical events. The company sells subscription licensing of its platform solutions, as well as provides related arrangements for advisory, implementation, and support services.

KB Home

KB Home is a homebuilding company. The company builds a variety of homes designed primarily for first-time and first move-up, as well as second move-up and active adult homebuyers, including attached and detached single-family residential homes, townhomes and condominiums. The company's financial services operations provide various insurance products to its homebuyers in the markets where it builds homes and provide title services in certain of those markets. The company's financial services operations also provide mortgage banking services, including residential consumer mortgage loan originations, to its homebuyers indirectly through KBHS Home Loans, LLC, a joint venture the company formed with Stearns Lending, LLC.

Lockheed Martin Corporation

Lockheed Martin is a security and aerospace company. The company has four segments: Aeronautics, which is engaged in the research, design, development, manufacture, integration, sustainment, support and upgrade of military aircraft; Missiles and Fire Control, which provides air and missile defense systems, logistics, fire control systems, and mission operations support; Rotary and Mission Systems, which provides design, manufacture, service and support for military and commercial helicopters, radar systems, and simulation and training services; Space, which researches, designs, develops, engineers and produces satellites, space transportation systems, and strategic, strike, and defensive systems.

MASTERCARD INCORPORATED

Mastercard is a technology company in the global payments industry. The company's solutions enabling consumers to use electronic forms of payment instead of cash and checks. The company provides a range of payment solutions and services using its brands, including Mastercard?, Maestro? and Cirrus?. The company is a multi-rail network that provides customers one partner to turn to for their domestic and cross-border payment needs. The company has additional payment capabilities that include automated clearing house transactions. The company also provides offerings such as cyber and intelligence products, information and analytics services, consulting, loyalty and reward programs and processing.

Microsoft Corporation

Microsoft is a technology company. The company develops and supports software, services, devices, and solutions. The company provides an array of services, including cloud-based solutions as well as solution support and consulting services. The company also delivers relevant online advertising. The company's products include operating systems; cross-device productivity applications; server applications; business solution applications; desktop and server management tools; software development tools; and video games. The company also designs, manufactures, and sells devices, including personal computers, tablets, gaming and entertainment consoles, other devices, and related accessories.

Raytheon Technologies Corporation

Raytheon Technologies is an aerospace and defense company providing systems and services for commercial, military and government customers. Collins Aerospace Systems specializes in aerostructures, avionics, interiors, mechanical systems, mission systems and power controls that serve customers across the commercial, regional, business aviation and military sectors. Pratt & Whitney designs, manufactures and services aircraft engines and auxiliary power systems for commercial, military and business aircraft. Raytheon Intelligence & Space develops sensors, training, and cyber and software solutions. Raytheon Missiles & Defense provides end-to-end solutions to detect, track and engage threats.

ServiceNow Inc.

ServiceNow provides enterprise cloud computing services that define, structure, manage and automate digital workflows for global enterprises. The company markets its services to enterprises in a variety of industries, including consumer products, education, financial services, government, health care, information technology (IT) services and technology. The company sells its subscription services through direct sales and, to a lesser extent, through indirect channel sales. The company also provides a portfolio of personnel and other services, both directly and through its network of partners. The company's products include IT service management, IT operations management, IT business management, and security operations.

Sonos

Sonos designs, develops, manufactures and sells multi-room audio products. The Sonos home sound system provides customers with a listening activity created by the design of its speakers and components, a proprietary software platform and the ability to stream content from a variety of sources over the customer's wireless network or over Bluetooth. The company's products are sold via third-party retail stores, including custom installers of home audio systems. The company also sells via select e-commerce retailers and its website sonos.com. The company's products are distributed through its wholly owned subsidiaries: Sonos Europe B.V., Beijing Sonos Technology Co., Ltd., Sonos Japan GK and Sonos Australia Pty Ltd.

WHIRLPOOL CORPORATION

Whirlpool is a home appliance company. The company manufactures and markets a line of home appliances and related products. The company's principal products are laundry appliances, refrigerators and freezers, cooking appliances, dishwashers, mixers and other small domestic appliances. The company manufactures and markets products under brand names such as Whirlpool, KitchenAid, Maytag, Consul, Brastemp, Amana, Bauknecht, JennAir, Indesit and Hotpoint. The company's operating and reportable segments consist of North America, Europe, Middle East and Africa, Latin America and Asia.

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Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

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