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Valens Research

Valens Equity Insights and Inflections - 2022 03 08

Qualcomm (QCOM) is rapidly diversifying from its legacy smartphone business into the high growth IoT market. Uniform Accounting highlights that the market is missing this, pricing in a reversal of recent profitability trends and slowing growth, indicating equity upside.

With the smartphone market near full saturation, Qualcomm has intelligently pivoted its focus to high growth areas within the IoT market including the connected automotive market and radio frequency components. As Qualcomm continues pivoting towards high growth markets, and as it generates more sales from hardware versus licensing fees, it should be able to grow and improve profitability more than the market is currently pricing in.

Qualcomm's management is aligned to focus on metrics that will incentivize revenue growth and margin expansion, suggesting management is well aligned to create value that the market is not pricing in.

eBay (EBAY) is being removed from the Conviction Long List as our thesis appears to be fully played out, with GMV peaking during the pandemic, take rates plateauing, and the payment ecosystem remaining within the marketplace. We close it out, up 86%.

SPGI Q4 2021 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to expand, but management may have concerns about growth opportunities, profitability, and initiatives

ABBV Q4 2021 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to compress, and management may have concerns about aesthetics growth, product development, and guidance

SWKS Q1 2022 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to compress, but management is confident about technological leadership and guidance

QCOM, ABBV, SPGI, SWKS, BA, CNC, HES, HOLX, INCY, MAS, PH
Underlyings
AbbVie Inc.

AbbVie is a research-based biopharmaceutical company. The company's products are focused on treating conditions such as chronic autoimmune diseases in rheumatology, gastroenterology and dermatology; oncology, including blood cancers; virology, including hepatitis C virus and human immunodeficiency virus; neurological disorders, such as Parkinson's disease; metabolic diseases, including thyroid disease and complications associated with cystic fibrosis; pain associated with endometriosis; as well as other serious health conditions. The company also has medicines in clinical development across immunology, oncology and neuroscience, with additional targeted investment in cystic fibrosis and women's health.

BOEING COMPANY (THE)

The Boeing is an aerospace firm. The company's segments include: Commercial Airplanes, which develops, produces and markets commercial jet aircraft and provides fleet support services, mainly to the commercial airline industry; Defense, Space and Security, which engages in the research, development, production and modification of manned and unmanned military aircraft and weapons systems for strike, surveillance and mobility, vertical lift, and commercial derivative aircraft; Global Services, which provides supply chain and logistics management, pilot and maintenance training systems and services, and data analytics and digital services; and Boeing Capital, which manages overall financing exposure.

Centene Corporation

Centene is an insurance holding company. The company's Managed Care segment provides health plan coverage to individuals through government subsidized programs. The company also provides a variety of individual, small group, and large group commercial healthcare products, both to employers and directly to members in the Managed Care segment. The company's Specialty Services segment consists of the company's specialty companies prviding healthcare services and products to state programs, correctional facilities, healthcare organizations, employer groups and other commercial organizations, as well as to its own subsidiaries. The Specialty Service segment also includes the Government Contracts business.

Hess Corporation

Hess is a global exploration and production company engaged in exploration, development, production, transportation, purchase and sale of crude oil, natural gas liquid (NGL), and natural gas with production operations located primarily in the United States, Guyana, the Malaysia/Thailand Joint Development Area, Malaysia and Denmark. The company's Midstream operating segment provides fee-based services, including gathering, compressing and processing natural gas and fractionating NGL; gathering, terminaling, loading and transporting crude oil and NGL; storing and terminaling propane, and water handling services primarily in the Bakken shale play in the Williston Basin area of North Dakota.

Hologic Inc.

Hologic is a developer, manufacturer and supplier of diagnostics products, medical imaging systems, surgical products and light-based aesthetic and medical treatment systems. The company's segments are: Diagnostics, which provides diagnostic products which are used to aid in the diagnosis of human diseases; Breast Health, which provides solutions for breast cancer care for radiology, pathology and surgery; Medical Aesthetics, which provides aesthetic treatment systems, including SculpSure, PicoSure and MonaLisa Touch; GYN Surgical, which includes NovaSure Endometrial Ablation System to treat abnormal uterine bleeding; and Skeletal Health, which includes the Horizon DXA, a dual energy x-ray system.

INCYTE CORP

Incyte is a biopharmaceutical company focused on the discovery, development and commercialization of therapeutics. JAKAFI (ruxolitinib) has been approved for the treatment of patients with intermediate or high-risk myelofibrosis, for the treatment of patients with polycythemia vera, and for the treatment of steroid-refractory acute graft-versus-host disease in adult and pediatric patients 12 years and older. The company has also obtained a license to develop and commercialize ICLUSIG (ponatinib) in Europe and other select countries. In the European Union, ICLUSIG is approved for the treatment of adult patients with chronic phase, accelerated phase or blast phase chronic myeloid leukemia.

Masco Corporation

Masco designs, manufactures and distributes home improvement and building products. The company's Plumbing Products include faucets, showerheads, handheld showers, valves, bath hardware and accessories, bathing units, shower bases and enclosures and toilets. This segment also includes brass, copper and composite plumbing system components and other non-decorative plumbing products. The company's Decorative Architectural Products include cabinet and door hardware, functional hardware, wall plates, hook and hook rail products, and picture hanging accessories. This segment also includes decorative indoor and outdoor lighting fixtures, ceiling fans, landscape lighting and LED lighting systems.

Parker-Hannifin Corporation

Parker Hannifin is a manufacturer of motion and control technologies and systems, providing engineered solutions for a variety of mobile, industrial and aerospace markets. The company has two reporting segments: Diversified Industrial and Aerospace Systems. The company's Diversified Industrial segment products consist of a range of motion-control and fluid systems and components, which are categorized into the following groups: Engineered Materials, Filtration, Fluid Connectors, Instrumentation, and Motion Systems. The company's Aerospace Systems Segment products are used in commercial and military airframe and engine programs and include control actuation systems and components and pneumatic control components.

Qualcomm Inc

Qualcomm is engaged in the development and commercialization of foundational technologies for the wireless industry. The company's segments include: Qualcomm CDMA Technologies, which is a developer and supplier of integrated circuits and system software based on code division multiple access, orthogonal frequency division multiple access and other technologies; Qualcomm Technology Licensing, which grants licenses or otherwise provides rights to use portions of its intellectual property portfolio, which, among other rights, include certain patent rights essential to and/or useful in the manufacture and sale of certain wireless products; and Qualcomm Strategic Initiatives, which makes investments.

S&P Global Inc.

S&P Global is a provider of transparent and independent ratings, benchmarks, analytics and data to the capital and commodity markets worldwide. The company's segments include: S&P Global Ratings, which provides credit ratings, research and analytics; S&P Global Market Intelligence, which provides multi-asset-class data, research and analytical capabilities that integrate cross-asset analytics and desktop services; S&P Global Platts, which provides information and benchmark prices for the commodity and energy markets; and S&P Dow Jones Indices, which provides a variety of valuation and index benchmarks for investment advisors, wealth managers and institutional investors.

Skyworks Solutions Inc.

Skyworks Solutions is a provider of analog semiconductors that connect people, places, and things, spanning a number of applications within the aerospace, automotive, broadband, cellular infrastructure, connected home, industrial, medical, military, smartphone, tablet and wearable markets. The company's product portfolio consists of various solutions, including: amplifiers, antenna tuners, attenuators, circulators/isolators, wireless analog system on chip, direct current (DC)/DC converters, demodulators, detectors, diodes, directional couplers, diversity receive modules, filters, front-end modules, hybrid, light emitting diode drivers, low noise amplifiers, mixers, and modulators.

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Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

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