Report
Valens Research

Valens Equity Insights and Inflections - 2022 01 25

Constellation Brands (STZ) has transformed its profitability profile through its massive
expansion in the beer market and move to premiumization over the last seven years.
Uniform Accounting highlights that the market is pricing in a reversal of recent
profitability expansion and below-average growth, but management is confident about
executing on their strategy and is aligned to continue to do so, signaling the potential for
equity upside as the company continues executing.

Constellation has consistently improved its returns since 2014, when it acquired Grupo
Modelo's U.S. operations. Since then, the company has significantly expanded its presence
in the profitable beer market, and more recently, it has specifically focused on attacking the
premium slice of all the segments of the alcohol market. All of this has driven significant
growth and profitability expansion, and it has the momentum to continue doing so both in
beer, wine, and spirit. If the company is able to continue executing, it should be able to beat
market expectations.

STZ's management is closely aligned to focus on margins, asset efficiency, and growth, the
three main drivers for profitability expansion and key to Constellation's equity upside
scenario.

Management confidence in the Q3 earnings call about continued momentum in its beer
segment, pricing power, and new product releases suggest management is positioned to
execute above market expectations.

HLLY Q3 2021 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to decline, and management may have concerns about demand, acquisitions, and supply chain

NKE Q2 2022 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to expand to record highs, but management may have concerns about supply chain and growth

ACN Q1 2022 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Markets expectations are for Uniform ROA to reach new highs, and management is confident about growth and their capabilities

STZ, ACN, HLLY, NKE, DBRG, HPE, INCY, INTU, LOW, MSCI, ORCL
Underlyings
Accenture Plc Class A

Constellation Brands Inc. Class A

Constellation Brands is an international beverage alcohol company. The company is a producer and marketer of beer, wine and spirits with operations in the U.S., Mexico, New Zealand, Italy and Canada. The company has two segments: Beer, in which the company is engaged in the U.S. beer market that includes the imported, craft, domestic super premium, and alternative beverage alcohol categories and it has the right to import, market and sell these Mexican beer brands in the U.S.; and Wine and Spirits, in which its wine portfolio is supported by grapes purchased from independent growers, primarily in the U.S., New Zealand and Chile, and vineyard holdings in the U.S., New Zealand and Italy.

DIGITALBRIDGE GROUP INC

Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co.

Hewlett Packard Enterprise is a technology company. The company's segments are: Hybrid IT, which provides a portfolio of infrastructure and solutions including servers, storage, and HPE Pointnext services; Intelligent Edge, which is comprised of cloud solutions that include wireless local area network, campus and data center switching, software-defined wide-area-networking, security, and associated services to enable secure connectivity; Financial Services, which provides investment solutions for customers that facilitate technology deployment models; and Corporate Investments, which includes Communications and Media Solutions, Hewlett Packard Labs and certain business incubation projects.

HOLLEY INC

INCYTE CORP

Incyte is a biopharmaceutical company focused on the discovery, development and commercialization of therapeutics. JAKAFI (ruxolitinib) has been approved for the treatment of patients with intermediate or high-risk myelofibrosis, for the treatment of patients with polycythemia vera, and for the treatment of steroid-refractory acute graft-versus-host disease in adult and pediatric patients 12 years and older. The company has also obtained a license to develop and commercialize ICLUSIG (ponatinib) in Europe and other select countries. In the European Union, ICLUSIG is approved for the treatment of adult patients with chronic phase, accelerated phase or blast phase chronic myeloid leukemia.

Intuit Inc.

Intuit helps consumers, small businesses, and the self-employed prosper by delivering financial management and compliance products and services. The company also provides tax products to accounting personnels, who are main partners that help the company serves small business customers. The company organizes its businesses into three reportable segments: Small Business and Self-Employed, which provides QuickBooks financial management solutions to solve financial and compliance problems; Consumer, which includes TurboTax products and services to prepare and file income tax returns; and Strategic Partner, which includes professional tax offerings and serve professional accountants in United States and Canada.

Lowe's Companies Inc.

Lowe's Companies is a home improvement retailer. The company provides home improvement products in lumber and building materials, appliances, seasonal and outdoor living, tools and hardware, fashion fixtures, rough plumbing and electrical, paint, millwork, lawn and garden, flooring, and kitchens categories. The company provides installation services through independent contractors in product categories, including appliances, flooring, kitchens, lumber and building materials, and millwork. The company also provides extended protection plans for various products within the appliances, kitchens, fashion fixtures, millwork, rough plumbing and electrical, seasonal and outdoor living, and tools and hardware categories.

MSCI Inc. Class A

MSCI is a provider of decision support tools and services for the global investment community. The company's segments are: Index, in which Clients use the company's indexes in various areas of the investment process, including index-linked product creation; Analytics, which provides risk management, performance attribution and portfolio management content, applications and services; Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG), which helps institutional investors understand how ESG considerations can impact the long-term risk and reward of their portfolio and individual security-level investments; and Real Estate, which includes research, reporting, market data and benchmarking offerings.

NIKE Inc. Class B

NIKE is engaged in the design, development and marketing and selling of athletic footwear, apparel, equipment, accessories and services. The company focuses its NIKE Brand product offerings in Running, NIKE Basketball, the Jordan Brand, Football (Soccer), Training and Sportswear categories. The company markets products designed for kids, as well as for other athletic and recreational uses such as American football, baseball, cricket, golf, lacrosse, tennis, walking, and other outdoor activities. The company has license agreements that permit unaffiliated parties to manufacture and sell, using the company-owned trademarks, certain apparel, digital devices and applications and other equipment designed for sports activities.

Oracle Corporation

Oracle provides products and services that address enterprise information technology (IT) environments. The company's products and services include applications and infrastructure offerings. The company's cloud and license business engages in the sale, marketing and delivery of its applications and infrastructure technologies through cloud and on-premise deployment models including its cloud services and license support offerings; and its cloud license and on-premise license offerings. The company's hardware business provides Oracle Engineered Systems, servers, storage, industry-specific hardware, operating systems, virtualization, management and other hardware-related software to support diverse IT environments.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

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