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Valens Research

Valens Equity Insights and Inflections - 2018 10 24

TJX currently trades above corporate averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) Earnings, with a 24.0x Uniform P/E. At these levels, the market is pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to improve from 15% in 2018 to 17% in 2023, accompanied by 4% Uniform Asset growth going forward. Analysts have similar expectations, projecting Uniform ROA to improve to 16% through 2020, accompanied by 4% Uniform Asset growth. However, management has concern about volatility in the U.K. market, their ability to maintain profitability, and headwinds facing HomeGoods, suggesting these bullish expectations are too optimistic. Should TJX fail to expand profitability above historical highs, as management sentiment suggests, equity downside would likely be warranted.


TGT Q2 2018 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA stability, and management is confident about growth, initiatives, and their Toys and Baby segments

WGO Q4 2018 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Management's confidence in their Towable segment, expanded product lines, and brand equity imply that market expectations are overly bearish, and upside is warranted


ADBE Q3 2018 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for record Uniform ROA expansion, and management is confident in their Digital business segments, new marketing tools, and Cloud extensions


4452:JPN,CHTR,D,EL,FDX,HUM,JD,LIN:DEU,LRCX,MPC,NSC,PX,SAF:FRA
Underlyings
Adobe Inc.

Adobe is a software company. The company provides a line of products and services used for creating, managing, delivering, measuring, optimizing, engaging and transacting with content across personal computers, devices and media. The company's segments are: Digital Media, which provides products, services and solutions that enable individuals, teams and enterprises to create, publish and promote their content; Digital Experience, which provides a platform and set of applications and services through Adobe Experience Cloud; and Publishing, which contains products and services that address market opportunities including eLearning solutions, web conferencing, web application development and printing.

Charter Communications Inc. Class A

Charter Communications is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a cable operator and a broadband communications company providing video, Internet and voice services. The company also provides its mobile service to residential customers. In addition, the company sells video and online advertising inventory to local, regional and national advertising customers and communications and managed solutions to enterprise customers. The company also owns and operates regional sports networks and local sports, news and community channels. The company owns and operates a two-way telecommunications network which passes various households and small and medium businesses across United States.

Dental

Dental Corporation Public Company Limited is a Thailand-based company providing a full range of dental services. The Company and its subsidiaries operate both dental center and dental clinics under the brand of Bangkok International Dental Center (BIDC), Dental Signature and Smile Signature. The Company's services cover general dentistry, cosmetic dentistry, dental implants, prosthetic dentistry, orthodontic dentistry, periodontic dentistry, endodontic dentistry, oral surgery and preventive dentistry. The Company's subsidiaries include Bangkok International Dental Center Company Limited, Bangkok International Dental Hospital Company Limited and Dental All (Thailand) Company Limited.

Estee Lauder Companies Inc. Class A

Estee Lauder Companies is a manufacturer and marketer of skin care, makeup, fragrance and hair care products. The company's products are sold under a number of brand names including: Estee Lauder, Clinique, Origins, MzAzC, Bobbi Brown, La Mer, Jo Malone London, Aveda and Too Faced. The company is also the global licensee for fragrances, cosmetics and/or related products sold under various designer brand names. The company's products include skin care, makeup and related items such as compacts, brushes and other makeup tools, fragrance sold in various forms, hair care, and other ancillary products and services.

FedEx Corporation

FedEx provides transportation, e-commerce and business services through companies under the FedEx brand. These companies are included in the following segments: Federal Express Corporation, including TNT Express B.V., is an express transportation company; FedEx Ground Package System, Inc., which is a provider of small-package ground delivery services; FedEx Freight Corporation, which is a provider of less-than-truckload freight services; and FedEx Corporate Services, Inc., which provides sales, marketing, information technology, communications, customer service, technical support, billing and collections services, and certain back-office functions.

Humana Inc.

Humana is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a health and well-being company. The company manages its business with three segments: Retail, which consists of products sold on a retail basis to individuals including medical and supplemental benefit plans, such as Medicare and state-based Medicaid Contracts; Group and Specialty, which consists of employer group commercial fully-insured medical and specialty health insurance benefits, including dental, vision and life insurance benefits, as well as administrative services only; and Healthcare Services, which includes pharmacy solutions, provider services, clinical care services, and predictive modeling and informatics services

JD.com Inc. Sponsored ADR Class A

Kao Corp.

Kao is engaged in the manufacture and sale of consumer products, cosmetics and industrial chemical products. Co.'s principal products include cosmetics, soaps, facial cleansers, body cleansers, shampoos, conditioners, hair styling products, hair coloring agents, beverages, sanitary napkins, baby diapers, bath additives, oral care products, laundry detergents, fabric treatments, cleaning products, and commercial-use products. Co. also provides fatty alcohols, fatty amines, fatty acids, glycerin, commercial-use edible fats and oils, surfactant, plastics additives, toner and toner binder for copiers and printers, ink and colorants for ink-jet printers, fragrances and aroma chemicals.

Lam Research Corporation

Lam Research is a supplier of wafer fabrication equipment and services to the semiconductor industry. The company designs, manufactures, markets, refurbishes, and services semiconductor processing equipment used in the fabrication of integrated circuits. The company's customer base includes semiconductor memory, foundry, and integrated device manufacturers that make products such as non-volatile memory, dynamic random-access memory, and logic devices. The company's services include customer service, spares, improvement, and refurbishment of its deposition, etch, and clean products. The company sells its products and services to companies in the United States, China, Europe, Japan, Korea, Southeast Asia, and Taiwan.

LINDE AG

Linde is a gases and engineering company based in Germany. Co. operates through two divisions. The Gases division provides a range of compressed and liquefied gases as well as chemicals. Co.'s gases are used in the energy sector, in steel production, chemical processing, environmental protection, and welding, as well as in food processing, glass production and electronics. The Engineering division is engaged in industrial plants construction globally, focusing on market segments such as plants for the production of hydrogen and synthesis gas, air separation and olefins as well as plants for natural gas treatment.

Marathon Petroleum Corporation

Marathon Petroleum is an independent petroleum refining and marketing, retail and midstream company. The company's segments include: Refining and Marketing, which refines crude oil and other feedstocks at its refineries, purchases refined products and ethanol for resale and distributes refined products; Retail, which sells transportation fuels and convenience products in the retail market across the U.S.; and Midstream, which transports, stores, distributes and markets crude oil and refined products via refining logistics assets, pipelines, terminals, towboats and barges, gathers, processes and transports natural gas, and gathers, transports, fractionates, stores and markets natural gas liquids.

Norfolk Southern Corporation

Norfolk Southern is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is engaged in the rail transportation of raw materials, intermediate products, and finished goods primarily in the Southeast, East, and Midwest and, via interchange with rail carriers, to and from the rest of the United States. The company also transports overseas freight through several Atlantic and Gulf Coast ports. The company provides intermodal network in the eastern half of the United States. The company's railroad operates in several states and the District of Columbia. The company's system reaches manufacturing plants, electric generating facilities, mines, distribution centers, transload facilities, and other businesses in its service area.

Praxair Inc.

Praxair is an industrial gas company in North and South America. The company's operations consist of two main product lines: industrial gases and surface technologies. The industrial gases product line centers on the manufacturing and distribution of atmospheric gases (oxygen, nitrogen, argon, rare gases) and process gases (carbon dioxide, helium, hydrogen, electronic gases, specialty gases, acetylene). The company's surface technologies segment supplies wear-resistant and high-temperature corrosion-resistant metallic and ceramic coatings and powders. The company's subsidiary, Praxair Surface Technologies, supplies wear-resistant and high-temperature corrosion-resistant metallic and ceramic coatings and powders.

Safran S.A.

Safran designs, develops and manufactures high technology electronics through three businesses: Aerospace, Defense and Security. Aerospace includes Aerospace Propulsion (propulsion systems for commercial aircraft, military transport, training and combat aircraft, rocket engines, civil and military helicopters) and Aircraft Equipment (mechanical, hydromechanical and electromechanical equipment); Defense (optronic, avionic and electronic systems); and Security (biometric technologies for fingerprint, iris and face recognition, identity management products, access management and transaction security, including tomographic systems for detection of dangerous or illicit substances in baggage).

Target Corporation

Target provides its customers everyday essentials and merchandise. The company sells an assortment of general merchandise and food. The majority of the company's general merchandise stores provide an edited food assortment, including perishables, dry grocery, dairy, and frozen items. The company's small format stores provide curated general merchandise and food assortments. The company's digital channels include merchandise assortment, including various items found in its stores, along with a complementary assortment. The company also sells merchandise through periodic design and partnerships. The company's owned brands merchandise include: A New Day?, Archer Farms?, Art Class?, Ava & Viv?, Cat & Jack?, and Cloud Island?, among others.

TJX Companies Inc

TJX Companies is an off-price apparel and home fashions retailer. The company's segments comprised of: Marmaxx, which sells family apparel (including footwear and accessories), home fashions (including home basics, decorative accessories and giftware) and other merchandise; HomeGoods, which provides a range of home fashions, including home fashions, including furniture, rugs, lighting, soft home, decorative accessories, tabletop and cookware as well as pet, kids and gourmet food departments; TJX Canada, which operates the Winners, HomeSense and Marshalls chains in Canada; and TJX International, which operates the T.K. Maxx and HomeSense chains in Europe and the T.K. Maxx chain in Australia.

Winnebago Industries Inc.

Winnebago Industries is a manufacturer with a portfolio of recreation vehicles and marine products used primarily in leisure travel and outdoor recreation activities. The company's reportable segments include: Towable, which is comprised of products which are not motorized and are generally towed by another vehicle as well as other related manufactured products and services; and Motorhome, which is comprised of products that include a motorized chassis as well as other related manufactured products and services. The company's subsidiary, Chris-Craft USA, Inc., manufactures and sells boats in the recreational powerboat industry through a network of independent authorized dealers.

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Valens Research
Valens Research

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  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
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Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

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