Report
Valens Research

ADP - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2021 07 19

Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP:USA) currently trades at a recent high relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) earnings, with a 32.3x Uniform P/E. At these levels, the market is pricing in bullish expectations for the firm, but management may be concerned about driving incremental productivity improvements, customer retention rates, and the potential of the Next Gen Payroll engine.

Specifically, management may lack confidence in their ability to drive incremental productivity improvements in the long run, remain above the industry benchmark for retention rates, and improve client funds interest revenues. Moreover, they may have concerns about the potential of the Next Gen Payroll engine, the launch of their Roll app, and the extension of their portfolio duration. Management may also lack confidence in their ability to improve client satisfaction and increase shareholder returns. Finally, they may be exaggerating the accelerated recovery of their clients' buying decisions, and they may have concerns about their business's overall growth potential.
Underlying
Automatic Data Processing Inc.

Automatic Data Processing is a provider of cloud-based human capital management (HCM) solutions to employers, providing solutions to businesses of various sizes. The company's two reportable business segments are Employer Services, which provides a range of technology-based HCM solutions, including payroll services, benefits administration, talent management, HR management, workforce management, compliance services, insurance services and retirement services; and Professional Employer Organization, which provides clients with employment administration outsourcing solutions through a relationship in which employees who work for a client are co-employed by the company and the client.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

Analysts
Valens Research

Other Reports on these Companies
Other Reports from Valens Research

ResearchPool Subscriptions

Get the most out of your insights

Get in touch