Report
Valens Research

Valens Equity Insights and Inflections - 2020 10 20

MAT currently trades above corporate averages relative to Uniform earnings, with a 26.5x
Uniform P/E. At these levels, the market is pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to improve from 5% in 2019 to 13% in 2024, accompanied by 4% Uniform asset contraction going forward. Meanwhile, analysts have similar expectations, projecting Uniform ROA to expand to 11% in 2021, accompanied by 10% Uniform asset shrinkage. However, management appears concerned about revenue, operations, and margins. Current valuations appear to be pricing in overly bullish expectations for MAT, and if the company is not able to improve profitability levels in the next five years, material downside may be warranted.

CXO Q2 2020 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to remain muted, and management appears concerned about macroeconomic uncertainty, their efficiency, and business plans

AVB Q2 2020 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA expansion, but management may have concerns about housing activity, leverage, and project delays

UDR Q2 2020 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to expand to all-time highs, but management may have concerns about their next-generation operating platform, state regulations, and short-term rentals

MAT, AVB, CXO, UDR, AAP, ADSK, BCO, BKR, BRKS, DISH, ENR, EQR, GIS, LDOS, NOW, ON, ORCL, RHP, WEX, WORK
Underlyings
Advance Auto Parts Inc.

Advance Auto Parts is an automotive aftermarket parts provider in North America, serving both professional installers (Professional), and do-it-yourself (DIY), customers as well as independently owned operators. The company's stores and branches provide a range selection of brand name, original equipment manufacturer and private label automotive replacement parts, accessories, batteries and maintenance items for domestic and imported cars, vans, sport utility vehicles and light and heavy duty trucks. Through its integrated operating approach, the company serves its Professional and DIY customers through a variety of channels ranging from brick and mortar store locations to self-service e-commerce sites.

Autodesk Inc.

Autodesk is a design software and services company. The company is engaged in 3D design, engineering and entertainment software and services. The company's product offerings include: AutoCAD, which is a customizable and extensible CAD application for design, drafting, detailing, and visualization; AutoCAD Civil 3D, which provides surveying, design, analysis, and documentation solution for civil engineering; CAM Solutions, which is a computer-aided manufacturing software that provides solutions for computer numeric control machining, inspection, and modeling for manufacturing; and Inventor, which provides tools for 3D mechanical design, simulation, analysis, tooling, visualization, and documentation.

AvalonBay Communities Inc.

AvalonBay Communities is a real estate investment trust. The company develops, redevelops, acquires, owns and operates multifamily communities primarily in New England, the New York/New Jersey metro area, the Mid-Atlantic, the Pacific Northwest, and Northern and Southern California. The company owns or holds a direct or indirect ownership interest in: operating apartment communities containing apartment homes in various states and the District of Columbia; communities under development; and rights to develop an additional communities.

Baker Hughes Company Class A

Baker Hughes is an energy technology company. The company's segments are: Oilfield Services, which provides products and services for onshore and offshore operations ranging from drilling, evaluation, completion, production, and intervention; Oilfield Equipment, which provides products and services for the subsea, offshore surface and onshore operating environments; Turbomachinery and Processing Solutions, which provides equipment and related services for mechanical-drive, compression and power-generation applications; and Digital Solutions, which includes condition monitoring, industrial controls, non-destructive technologies, measurement, sensing, and pipeline solutions.

Brink's Company

Brink's is engaged in total cash management, route-based logistics and payment solutions including cash-in-transit, automated teller machine (ATM) services, cash management services, including vault outsourcing, money processing, and safe services, and international transportation of valuables. The company's service offerings, among others, include: cash-in-transit services, which include the transportation of cash between businesses and financial institutions; ATM services, which provide customers who own and operate ATMs a variety of service options; global services, which provide transportation of commodities; and CompuSafe? service, which provides a closed-loop system.

Brooks Automation Inc.

Brooks Automation provides semiconductor manufacturing automation solutions and life science sample-based services and solutions worldwide. In the semiconductor manufacturing market, the company provides robotics, automation systems and services. In the life sciences market, the company provides sample-based services and products, including a line of cold chain management solutions for handling and storing biological and chemical compound samples used in areas such as drug development, clinical research and advanced cell therapies. The company is also a provider of gene sequencing and gene synthesis services. The company's reportable segments consist of Brooks Semiconductor Solutions Group and Brooks Life Sciences.

Concho Resources Inc.

Concho Resources is an independent oil and natural gas company engaged in the acquisition, development, exploration and production of oil and natural gas properties. The company's operations are primarily focused in the Permian Basin of West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.

DISH Network Corporation Class A

DISH Network is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company operates two business segments: Pay-TV and Wireless. The company provides pay-TV services under: the DISH? brand, which consists of, among other things, Federal Communications Commission licenses authorizing the company to use direct broadcast satellite and Fixed Satellite Service spectrum, the company's owned and leased satellites, and certain other assets utilized in the company's operations; and the Sling? brand, which consists of, among other things, live-linear streaming over-the-top Internet-based domestic, international and Latino video programming services. In addition, the company invests to acquire certain wireless spectrum licenses and related assets.

Energizer Holdings Inc.

Energizer Holdings is a manufacturer, marketer and distributor of household and specialty batteries, portable lights, and automotive appearance, performance, refrigerants and freshener products. The company provides batteries using various technologies including lithium, alkaline, carbon zinc, nickel metal hydride, zinc air, and silver oxide. The company manufactures, distributes and markets lighting products including headlights, lanterns, children's lights and area lights. The company also provides auto care products in the appearance and fragrance categories including protectants, wipes, tire and wheel care products, glass cleaners, leather care products, air fresheners and washes.

Equity Residential

Equity Residential is a real estate investment trust. The company focuses on the acquisition, development and management of rental apartment properties. The company is the general partner of, and owns an ownership interest in ERP Operating Limited Partnership (ERPOP). All of the company's property ownership, development and related business operations are conducted through ERPOP and those entities/subsidiaries owned or controlled by ERPOP (collectively, Operating Partnership). The Operating Partnership holds substantially all of the assets of the company The company, directly or indirectly through investments in title holding entities, owns all or a portion of its properties located in several states and the District of Columbia.

General Mills Inc.

General Mills manufactures and markets branded consumer foods. The company's segments are: North America Retail, which provides cereals, refrigerated yogurt, soup, meal kits, dessert and baking mixes, frozen pizza and pizza snacks, grain, fruit and savory snacks, and organic products, among others; Convenience Stores and Foodservice, which provides snacks, yogurt, frozen meals and frozen dough products, and baking mixes, among others; Europe and Australia, which includes retail and foodservice businesses in the Europe and Australia region; Asia and Latin America, which consists of retail and foodservice businesses in the Asia and South America regions; and Pets, which includes pet food products.

Leidos Holdings Inc.

Leidos Holdings is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is engaged in a science, engineering and information technology that provides services and solutions in the defense, intelligence, civil and health markets. The company's defense solutions segment deploys solutions in the areas of intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance, enterprise information technology, integrated systems, cybersecurity and global services. The company's civil segment integrates and protects physical, digital and data domains. The company's health segment delivers solutions to federal and commercial customers that are responsible for the health and well-being of people including service members and veterans.

Mattel Inc.

Mattel is a global children's entertainment company that engages in the design and production of toys and consumer products. The company's portfolio of owned and licensed brands and products are organized into the following categories: Dolls, which include brands such as Barbie, American Girl, Enchantimals, and Polly Pocket; Infant, Toddler, and Preschool, which include brands such as Fisher-Price and Thomas & Friends, Power Wheels, Fireman Sam, and Shimmer and Shine (Nickelodeon); Vehicles, which include brands such as Hot Wheels, Matchbox, CARS (Disney Pixar), and Jurassic World (NBCUniversal); Action Figures, Building Sets, and Games, which include brands such as MEGA, UNO and WWE.

ON Semiconductor Corporation

ON Semiconductor is engaged in energy efficient electronics. The company is organized into three segments: Power Solutions Group, which provides a range of discrete, module and integrated semiconductor products; Analog Solutions Group, which designs and develops analog, mixed-signal, and advanced logic application specific integrated circuits and Application Specific Standard Product, and power solutions; and Image Sensor Group, which designs and develops complementary metal oxide semiconductor and charge-coupled device image sensors, as well as proximity sensors, image signal processors and actuator drivers for autofocus and image stabilization for automotive and industrial markets, among others.

Oracle Corporation

Oracle provides products and services that address enterprise information technology (IT) environments. The company's products and services include applications and infrastructure offerings. The company's cloud and license business engages in the sale, marketing and delivery of its applications and infrastructure technologies through cloud and on-premise deployment models including its cloud services and license support offerings; and its cloud license and on-premise license offerings. The company's hardware business provides Oracle Engineered Systems, servers, storage, industry-specific hardware, operating systems, virtualization, management and other hardware-related software to support diverse IT environments.

Ryman Hospitality Properties Inc.

Ryman Hospitality Properties is a real estate investment trust that is focused on group-oriented, destination hotel assets in urban and resort markets. The company's business segments include Hospitality and Entertainment. The Hospitality segment includes the Gaylord Hotels branded hotels, the Inn at Opryland and the AC Hotel, as well as the company's equity investment in Gaylord Rockies Resort & Convention Center. The Entertainment segment includes the Grand Ole Opry, the Ryman Auditorium, WSM-AM, Ole Red, the General Jackson, the Wildhorse Saloon, and Gaylord Springs, among others.

ServiceNow Inc.

ServiceNow provides enterprise cloud computing services that define, structure, manage and automate digital workflows for global enterprises. The company markets its services to enterprises in a variety of industries, including consumer products, education, financial services, government, health care, information technology (IT) services and technology. The company sells its subscription services through direct sales and, to a lesser extent, through indirect channel sales. The company also provides a portfolio of personnel and other services, both directly and through its network of partners. The company's products include IT service management, IT operations management, IT business management, and security operations.

Slack Technologies Inc. Class A

Slack Technologies operates a business technology software platform that brings together people, applications, and data and sells its offering under a software-as-a-service model in the United States and internationally.

UDR Inc.

UDR is a real estate investment trust that owns, operates, acquires, renovates, develops, redevelops, disposes of, and manages multifamily apartment communities generally located in markets located throughout the United States. In addition, the company has an ownership interest in completed or to-be-completed apartment homes through unconsolidated joint ventures or partnerships, including apartment homes owned by entities in which the company hold preferred equity investments. The company's operating partnership, United Dominion Realty, L.P., has a consolidated real estate portfolio that includes communities located in several markets.

WEX INC

Wex is a provider of corporate card payment solutions. The company operates in three business segments: Fleet Solutions, which provides payment, transaction processing and information management services specifically designed for the needs of commercial and government fleets; Travel and Corporate Solutions, which focuses on the payment environment of business-to-business payments, providing customers with payment processing solutions for their corporate payment and transaction monitoring needs; and Health and Employee Benefit Solutions, which provides a software-as-a-service platform for consumer directed healthcare payments, as well as payroll related benefits to customers in Brazil.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

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