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Valens Research

Valens Equity Insights and Inflections - 2018 08 29

DHI currently trades well below corporate averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) Earnings, with an 11.5x Uniform P/E. At these levels, the market is pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to decline from 11% in 2017 to 6% in 2022, accompanied by 9% Uniform Asset growth going forward. However, analysts have bullish expectations, projecting Uniform ROA to expand to 14% through 2019, accompanied by 14% Uniform Asset growth, and these expectations have grown consistently over the past year. Moreover, given management's confidence in their portfolio, revenue, and order pace, bearish expectations are unwarranted, and upside is likely justified. Should DHI succeed in simply sustaining profitability near current levels, equity upside would be warranted.

NAV Q2 2018 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for continued Uniform ROA expansion, but management is concerned about the sustainability of recent performance and current industry tailwinds

NOV Q2 2018 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Negative management sentiment indicates near-term upside may be limited, but overly bearish market expectations support long-term outperformance

THRM Q2 2018 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Management is confident in their strategy and execution, and low market expectations suggest longer-term upside remains warranted


AKS, BID, BKNG, BLBD, CAH, CCI, CELG, CSTM, DIS, GRMN, MTD, ULTA, V, VZ
Underlyings
AK Steel Holding Corporation

AK Steel Holding is a producer of flat-rolled carbon, stainless and electrical steels products primarily for the automotive, infrastructure and manufacturing, and distributors and converters markets through its wholly-owned subsidiary, AK Steel Corporation. The company's other subsidiaries also provide customer solutions with carbon and stainless steel tubing products, solutions, tool design, hot- and cold-stamped steel components and assemblies. The company sells its carbon steel products mainly to customers in North America, and it sells its electrical and stainless steel products primarily in North America and Europe. The company also produces metallurgical coal through its AK Coal Resources, Inc. subsidiary.

Blue Bird

Blue Bird is an independent designer and manufacturer of school buses. The company reviews and presents its business in the following operating segments: the Bus segment, whereby the company designs, engineers, manufactures, and sells Type C school buses, Type D school buses, and other buses including school buses that are converted to suit applications required by the United States Government, state and local governments, and various customers for commercial and export markets; and the Parts segment, which provides parts for routine maintenance, replacement of parts that are damaged in service, and replacement of parts that suffer from wear and tear through the life of the vehicle.

Booking Holdings Inc.

Booking Holdings provides travel and restaurant online reservation and related services. The company's brands include: Booking.com and Rentalcars.com, in which Booking.com provides booking online accommodation reservations, based on room nights booked, and Rentalcars.com provides online rental car reservation services; KAYAK, which provides an online price comparison service; Priceline, which provides consumers hotel, rental car and airline ticket reservation services, and vacation packages and cruises; Agoda, which is an online accommodation reservation service; and OpenTable, which provides online restaurant reservation services to consumers and reservation management services to restaurants.

Cardinal Health Inc.

Cardinal Health is a healthcare services and products company providing customized solutions for hospitals, healthcare systems, pharmacies, ambulatory surgery centers, clinical laboratories and physician offices. The company's segments include: Pharmaceutical and Medical. The company's Pharmaceutical segment distributes branded and generic pharmaceutical, specialty pharmaceutical and over-the-counter healthcare and consumer products in the United States. The company's Medical segment manufactures, sources and distributes Cardinal Health branded medical, surgical and laboratory products, which are sold in the United States, Canada, Europe, Asia and other markets.

Celgene Corporation

Celgene is a global biopharmaceutical company engaged primarily in the discovery, development and commercialization of therapies for the treatment of cancer and inflammatory diseases through solutions in protein homeostasis, immuno-oncology, epigenetics, immunology and neuro-inflammation. The company's primary commercial stage products include: REVLIMID?, an oral immunomodulatory drug; POMALYST?/IMNOVID?, a proprietary, small molecule; OTEZLA?, an oral small-molecule inhibitor of phosphodiesterase 4 for cyclic adenosine monophosphate; ABRAXANE?, a solvent-free chemotherapy product; and VIDAZA?, a pyrimidine nucleoside analog. In addition, the company provides other product sales and licensing arrangements.

Constellium SE Class A

Constellium N.V. designs and manufactures a range of innovative specialty rolled and extruded aluminum products, serving primarily the aerospace, packaging and automotive end-markets. Co. has a strategic footprint of manufacturing facilities located in the United States, Europe and China. Co.'s product portfolio commands higher margins as compared to less differentiated, more commoditized fabricated aluminum products, such as common alloy coils, paintstock, foilstock and soft alloys for construction and distribution. Co. organizes its business around three operating segments: Aerospace & Transportation, Packaging & Automotive Rolled Products, and Automotive Structures & Industry.

Crown Castle International Corp

Crown Castle International is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company owns, operates and leases shared communications infrastructure that is geographically dispersed throughout the U.S., including towers and other structures, such as rooftops (collectively, towers), and fiber primarily supporting small cell networks (small cells) and fiber solutions. The company's towers, fiber and small cells assets are collectively referred to herein as communications infrastructure. The company's core business is providing access, including space or capacity, to its shared communications infrastructure via long-term contracts in various forms, including lease, license, sublease and service agreements.

D.R. Horton Inc.

D.R. Horton is a homebuilding company. The company's business operations consist of homebuilding, a majority-owned residential lot development company, financial services and other activities. The company's financial services operations provide mortgage financing and title agency services to homebuyers in its homebuilding markets. The company's subsidiary, DHI Mortgage, provides mortgage financing services primarily to its homebuyers and generally sells the mortgages it originates and the related servicing rights to third-party purchasers. The company's subsidiary title companies serve as title insurance agents by providing title insurance policies, examination and closing services, primarily to its homebuyers.

Garmin Ltd.

Gentherm Incorporated

Gentherm designs, develops, and manufactures thermal management technologies. The company's products provide solutions for automotive passenger comfort, battery thermal management, remote power generation, patient temperature management, and other consumer and industrial temperature control needs. The company has two segments: Automotive, which includes climate comfort systems, automotive cable systems, battery thermal management, and automotive electronic and software systems; and Industrial, which includes the company's remote power generation systems business, its patient temperature management systems business, its environmental testing equipment business and its research and product development division.

Mettler-Toledo International Inc.

Mettler-Toledo International is a supplier of precision instruments and services. The company manufactures weighing instruments for use in laboratory, industrial, packaging, logistics, and food retailing applications. The company also manufactures several related analytical instruments and provides automated chemistry solutions used in drug and chemical compound discovery and development. In addition, the company manufactures metal detection and other end-of-line inspection systems used in production and packaging and provides solutions for use in certain process analytics applications. The company has five segments: United States Operations, Swiss Operations, Western European Operations, Chinese Operations, and Other.

Navistar International Corporation

Navistar International is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a manufacturer of International? brand commercial trucks, proprietary diesel engines, and IC Bus? (IC) brand school and commercial buses. The company's segments include: Truck, which manufactures and distributes trucks and buses along with production of proprietary engines; Parts, which provides proprietary products to support the International commercial truck, IC Bus, proprietary engine lines, and export parts business; and Global Operations, which consists of the operations of its subsidiary, International Industria Automotiva da America do Sul Ltda that manufactures and distributes mid-range diesel engines.

NOV Inc.

National Oilwell Varco is an independent provider of equipment and technology to the upstream oil and gas industry. The company's segments include: Wellbore Technologies, which designs, manufactures, rents, and sells a variety of equipment and technologies used to perform drilling operations; Completion and Production Solutions, which designs, manufactures, and sells equipment and technologies for hydraulic fracture stimulation, well intervention, onshore production, and offshore production; and Rig Technologies, which designs, manufactures and sells land rigs, offshore drilling equipment packages, and drilling rig components that mechanize and automate the drilling process and rig functionality.

Sotheby's

Sotheby's is a global art business whose operations are organized under two segments: Agency and Finance. The Agency segment matches buyers and sellers of authenticated fine art, decorative art, jewelry, wine and collectibles (collectively, art or works of art or artwork or property) through the auction or private sale process. Agency segment activities also include the sale of artworks that are principally acquired incidental to the auction process and the activities of RM Sotheby's, an equity investee that operates as an auction house for investment-quality automobiles. The Finance segment provides art-related financing activities by making loans that are secured by works of art.

Ulta Beauty Inc

Ulta Beauty is a beauty retailer that provides cosmetics, fragrance, skin care products, hair care products, and salon services. The company's stores are primarily located in locations such as power centers. The company provides a range of services in all of its stores. The company's stores, website, and mobile applications provides more than 25,000 products from approximately 500 beauty brands across all categories and price points, including its own private label, the Ulta Beauty Collection. The company provides a portfolio across five primary categories: cosmetics; skincare, bath and fragrance; haircare products and styling tools; salon services; and other, which includes nail products and accessories.

Verizon Communications Inc.

Verizon Communications is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company provides communications, information and entertainment products and services to consumers, businesses and governmental agencies. The company has two reportable segments, Verizon Consumer Group (Consumer) and Verizon Business Group (Business). The company's Consumer segment provides consumer-focused wireless and wireline communications services and products under the Verizon brand and through wholesale and other arrangements. The company's Business segment provides, among others, wireless and wireline communications services and products, video and data services, corporate networking solutions, security and managed network services.

Visa Inc. Class A

Visa is engaged in digital payments. The company facilitates payments between consumers and businesses. The company is focused on its proprietary network, VisaNet, to provide products and services. The company provides a portfolio of business payment solutions, including small business, corporate (travel) cards, purchasing cards, virtual cards/digital credentials, non-card cross-border business-to-business payment options and disbursement accounts, covering various main industry segments around the world. The company also provides several capabilities and services, including fraud prevention and security, processing, loyalty, merchant and digital solutions, consulting and data solutions.

Walt Disney Company

Walt Disney is an entertainment company. The company's segments are: Media Networks, which includes domestic cable networks, broadcast television network and domestic television stations, and television production and distribution; Parks, Experiences and Products, which includes theme parks and resorts, and consumer products operations; Studio Entertainment, which includes motion picture production and distribution, music production and distribution, and post-production services; and Direct-to-Consumer and International, which includes international television networks and channels, direct-to-consumer streaming services, and other digital content distribution platforms and services.

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Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

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