Report
Valens Research

AL - Valens Credit Report - 2018 02 08

- Credit markets are materially understating credit risk with a cash bond YTW of 3.302% relative to an Intrinsic YTW of 5.592% and an Intrinsic CDS of 312bps. Meanwhile, S&P is accurately stating AL's fundamental credit risk, with their BBB rating only one notch higher than Valens' XO (BBB-) rating - Incentives Dictate Behavior™ analysis highlights that AL's management compensation framework may incentivize the team to take on excess leverage to drive greater ROE - Earnings Call Forensics™ of the firm's Q3 2017 earnings call (11/9) highlights that management may have concerns about the sustainability of aircraft sales, as well as the increase in single aisle demand. They may also lack confidence in incremental lease revenue growth in the used aircraft marketplace - AL currently trades below historical averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) Assets, with a 1.3x Uniform P/B. At these levels, the market is pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to remain at 6% levels, accompanied by 10% Uniform Asset growth going forward, indicating equity markets are also failing to price in the firm's fundamental risks

Underlying
Air Lease Corporation Class A

Air Lease is an aircraft leasing company. The company is engaged in purchasing new commercial jet transport aircraft directly from aircraft manufacturers, such as The Boeing Company and Airbus S.A.S., and leasing those aircraft to airlines. In addition to its leasing activities, the company sells aircraft from its operating lease portfolio to third parties, including other leasing companies, financial services companies, airlines and other investors. The company also provides fleet management services to investors and owners of aircraft portfolios. The company provides aircraft to airline customers in Asia, the Pacific Rim, Latin America, the Middle East, Europe, Africa, and North America.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

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Valens Research

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