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Valens Research

Valens Equity Insights and Inflections - 2018 09 26

RCL currently trades below historical and corporate averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) Earnings, with a 18.6x Uniform P/E. At these levels, the market is pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to fade from 10% in 2017 to 9% in 2022, accompanied by 2% Uniform Asset growth going forward. However, analysts have more bullish expectations, projecting Uniform ROA to remain at current 10% levels through 2019, accompanied by 9% Uniform Asset growth.

Moreover, management's confidence in operational sustainability and positive customer satisfaction ratings, coupled with strong industry tailwinds and growing analyst outlook, suggests market expectations are far too bearish, indicating upside is likely justified.


AIV Q2 2018 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA expansion, but management is concerned about debt maturities, resident retention, and prelease rates

AVGO Q3 2018 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for further declines in Uniform ROA, and management has concerns about strategy, their wireless segment, and volatility

PINC Q4 2018 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Management's confidence in their new projects, overall performance, and new contract agreements imply market expectations are too bearish, and upside is warranted

BABA,CPT,CRM,CVX,DLR,GDDY,HES,HTA,LOW,NDAQ,NESN:CHE,ROG:CHE,RY:CAN,VNO,VOW3:DEU
Underlyings
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. Sponsored ADR

Apartment Investment & Management Co.

Apartment Investment and Management is a self-administered and self-managed real estate investment trust, focused on the ownership, management, redevelopment and limited development of apartment communities in the U.S. The company, through its wholly-owned subsidiaries, AIMCO-GP, Inc. and AIMCO-LP Trust, owns a majority of the ownership interests in AIMCO Properties, L.P. (the Aimco Operating Partnership). The company conducts all of its business and owns all of its assets through the Aimco Operating Partnership. The company's Real Estate portfolio includes garden style, apartment communities. In addition, the company held nominal ownership positions in partnerships that own low-income housing tax credit communities.

Camden Property Trust

Camden Property Trust is a real estate investment trust. The company and all its consolidated subsidiaries are primarily engaged in the ownership, management, development, redevelopment, acquisition, and construction of multifamily apartment communities. The company's properties provide residents with a variety of amenities common to multifamily rental properties. The company's operating properties are located in the following locations: Phoenix/Scottsdale, AZ; Los Angeles/Orange County, and San Diego/Inland Empire, CA; Denver, CO; Washington DC Metro; Southeast Florida, Orlando, and Tampa/St. Petersburg, FL; Atlanta, GA; Charlotte, and Raleigh, NC; and Austin, Dallas/Fort Worth, and Houston, TX.

Chevron Corporation

Chevron is engaged in energy and chemicals operations. Upstream operations consist primarily of, among others, exploring for, developing and producing crude oil and natural gas; processing, liquefaction, transportation and regasification associated with liquefied natural gas, storage and marketing of natural gas; and a gas-to-liquids plant. Downstream operations consist primarily of, among others, refining crude oil into petroleum products; marketing of crude oil and refined products; and manufacturing and marketing of commodity petrochemicals, plastics for industrial uses and fuel and lubricant additives.

Digital Realty Trust Inc.

Digital Realty Trust is a real estate investment trust. The company is a global provider of data center, colocation and interconnection solutions for customers across a variety of industry verticals ranging from cloud and information technology services, communications and social networking to financial services, manufacturing, energy, healthcare, and consumer products. The company's Operating Partnership, Digital Realty Trust, L.P., is the entity through which the company conducts its business of owning, acquiring, developing and operating data centers. The company's portfolio of data centers provides available environments for the exchange, processing and storage of electronic information.

GoDaddy Inc. Class A

GoDaddy is a technology provider to small businesses, web design personnel and individuals, delivering cloud-based products and personalized Customer Care. The company provides hosting, presence and business applications products and services. The company provides applications and access to relevant third party products helping them connect to their customers, manage and grow their businesses and get found online. The company has designed and developed a set of cloud-based technology products enabling its customers to establish a digital presence, connect with their customers and manage their ventures.

Healthcare Trust of America Inc. Class A

Healthcare Trust of America is a real estate investment trust. The company focuses on owning and operating medical office buildings that serve healthcare delivery and are located on health system campuses, near university medical centers, or in community core outpatient locations. The company's properties include health systems, such as Baylor Scott & White Health, Highmark-Allegheny Health Network, Hospital Corporation of America, Tenet Healthcare System and Community Health Systems.

Hess Corporation

Hess is a global exploration and production company engaged in exploration, development, production, transportation, purchase and sale of crude oil, natural gas liquid (NGL), and natural gas with production operations located primarily in the United States, Guyana, the Malaysia/Thailand Joint Development Area, Malaysia and Denmark. The company's Midstream operating segment provides fee-based services, including gathering, compressing and processing natural gas and fractionating NGL; gathering, terminaling, loading and transporting crude oil and NGL; storing and terminaling propane, and water handling services primarily in the Bakken shale play in the Williston Basin area of North Dakota.

Lowe's Companies Inc.

Lowe's Companies is a home improvement retailer. The company provides home improvement products in lumber and building materials, appliances, seasonal and outdoor living, tools and hardware, fashion fixtures, rough plumbing and electrical, paint, millwork, lawn and garden, flooring, and kitchens categories. The company provides installation services through independent contractors in product categories, including appliances, flooring, kitchens, lumber and building materials, and millwork. The company also provides extended protection plans for various products within the appliances, kitchens, fashion fixtures, millwork, rough plumbing and electrical, seasonal and outdoor living, and tools and hardware categories.

Nasdaq Inc.

Nasdaq is a holding company. Nasdaq is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company manages, operates and provides its products and services in business segments: Market Services, which includes equity derivative trading and clearing, cash equity trading, fixed income and commodities trading and clearing and trade management services businesses; Corporate Services, which includes listing services and corporate solutions businesses; Information Services, which includes market data, index, and investment data and analytics; and Market Technology, which provides and delivers solutions across the trade lifecycle via the Nasdaq Financial Framework.

Nestle S.A.

Nestle is a holding company which is based in Switzerland. Through its subsidiaries and allied companies, Co. is engaged in the food processing industry. Co.'s product portfolio has seven categories, Powder and Liquid Beverages, Nutritional and Health Science, Milk products and ice cream, Prepared dishes and cooking aids, PetCare, Confectionery and Water.

Premier Inc. Class A

Premier is a holding company. The company, together with its subsidiaries and affiliates, is a healthcare performance improvement company. The company provides technology-enabled platform that provides supply chain services, clinical, financial, operational and value based care software-as-a-service informatics products, consulting services and performance improvement collaborative programs. The company has two business segments: Supply Chain Services, which assists its members in managing their non-labor expense and capital spend through a combination of products, services and technologies; and Performance Services, which provides information technology analytics and workflow automation and consulting services.

Red Sky Energy

Red Sky Energy is engaged in the exploration for economic deposits of oil and gas.

Royal Bank of Canada

Royal Bank of Canada is a financial services company that provides personal and commercial banking, wealth management services, insurance, investor services and capital markets products and services. Co. serves personal, business, public sector and institutional clients through offices in Canada, the U.S. and 37 other countries. Co. is organized into five segments: Personal and Commercial Banking, which is comprised of Co.'s personal and business banking operations, and its auto financing businesses; Wealth Management, Insurance; Investor and Treasury Services; and Capital Markets. As of Oct 31 2017, Co. had total assets of C$1.21 trillion and total deposits of C$789.64 billion.

ROYAL CARIBBEAN GROUP

Salesforce.com inc.

Salesforce.Com is engaged in customer relationship management technology. The company's Customer 360 is an integrated platform that unites sales, service, marketing, commerce, integration, analytics and more to give companies a single, shared view of their customers. Through its platform and other developer tools, the company also enables third parties to develop additional functionality and applications, or apps, that run on its platform, which are sold separately from or in conjunction with the company's service offerings. The company's cloud service offerings include sales cloud, service cloud, marketing and commerce cloud, and salesforce platform and other.

Volkswagen AG ADS

Vornado Realty Trust

Vornado Realty Trust is a real estate investment trust and conducts its business through, and substantially all of its interests in properties are held by, Vornado Realty L.P. (the Operating Partnership). The company is the sole general partner of the Operating Partnership. The company owns and operates office and retail properties with a concentration in the New York City metropolitan area. In addition, the company has interest in Alexander's, Inc., which owns properties in the New York metropolitan area, as well as interests in other real estate and related investments.

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Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

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