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Valens Research

Valens Equity Insights and Inflections - 2021 06 15

CBRL is set up to not just survive the pandemic, but actually to thrive because of it, and the market isn't pricing this in. Before 2020, the company already had been steadily improving UAFRS-based (Uniform) ROA the past 10 years, thanks to its strong strategy to optimize its restaurant and store business. Now the company is rolling out new strategies, like introducing alcohol sales and off-premise dining offerings, that could turbocharge returns coming out of the pandemic. The market is not pricing these tailwinds in. On top of that, management's compensation aligns them to focus on their strategies to boost returns while also growing the business. And during the last 3 earnings calls, management showed confidence about their investment in their alcohol strategy, off-premise offerings, and their operational improvements paying off now and after the pandemic recedes. Considering low market expectations, management's sound strategy and robust execution, favorable management alignment, and positive management outlook, there appears to be equity upside potential for CBRL.

PII Q1 2021 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to compress, but management is confident about their efficiency, accessories segment, and cash flows

CNC Q1 2021 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for record-low Uniform ROA, but management is confident about revenue growth, margin expansion, and macro tailwinds

NXPI Q1 2021 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to improve, but management may have concerns about growth, build rates, and expenses

CBRL, CNC, NXPI, PII, ALGN, AMN, AVB, BSX, CTSH, EEFT, EQR, F, HOLX, IIVI, INOV, LGIH, LMT, LRCX, POST, VSTO, WEC
Underlyings
Align Technology Inc.

Align Technology is a medical device company engaged in the design, manufacture and marketing of Invisalign? clear aligners and iTero? intraoral scanners and services for orthodontics, restorative and aesthetic dentistry. The company's segments are: Clear Aligner, which includes the Invisalign System, a method for treating malocclusion based on a proprietary computer-simulated virtual treatment plan and a series of doctor-prescribed, custom manufactured, clear plastic, removable aligners; and Scanners and Services, which includes Intraoral scanning that enables the dental practitioner to create a 3D image of the patient's teeth (digital scan) using a handheld intraoral scanner.

AMN Healthcare Services Inc.

AMN Healthcare Services provides talent solutions for the healthcare sector. The company's talent solutions provides management, staffing, recruitment, technology, analytics, and related services to manage healthcare workforce needs. The company provides its healthcare personnel, from nurses, doctors, and allied health personnel to healthcare leaders and executives. The company's workforce solutions and staffing services include: travel nurse staffing; rapid response nurse staffing and labor disruption services; local, or per diem, staffing; locum tenens staffing; allied staffing; physician permanent placement services; interim leadership staffing and executive search services; and recruitment process outsourcing.

AvalonBay Communities Inc.

AvalonBay Communities is a real estate investment trust. The company develops, redevelops, acquires, owns and operates multifamily communities primarily in New England, the New York/New Jersey metro area, the Mid-Atlantic, the Pacific Northwest, and Northern and Southern California. The company owns or holds a direct or indirect ownership interest in: operating apartment communities containing apartment homes in various states and the District of Columbia; communities under development; and rights to develop an additional communities.

BOSTON SCIENTIFIC CORPORATION

Boston Scientific develops, manufactures and markets medical devices. The company's Medical Surgical segment consist of: Endoscopy, which develops and manufactures devices to diagnose and treat a range of gastrointestinal and pulmonary conditions; and Urology and Pelvic Health, which develops and manufactures devices to treat various urological and pelvic conditions. The company's Rhythm and Neuro segment includes: Cardiac Rhythm Management, which develops and manufactures implantable devices to treat cardiac abnormalities; and Electrophysiology, which develops and manufactures medical technologies used in the diagnosis and treatment of rate and rhythm disorders of the heart.

Centene Corporation

Centene is an insurance holding company. The company's Managed Care segment provides health plan coverage to individuals through government subsidized programs. The company also provides a variety of individual, small group, and large group commercial healthcare products, both to employers and directly to members in the Managed Care segment. The company's Specialty Services segment consists of the company's specialty companies prviding healthcare services and products to state programs, correctional facilities, healthcare organizations, employer groups and other commercial organizations, as well as to its own subsidiaries. The Specialty Service segment also includes the Government Contracts business.

Cognizant Technology Solutions Corporation Class A

Cognizant Technology Solutions is a services company, transforming customers' business, operating and technology models for the digital era. The company's services include digital services and solutions, consulting, application development, systems integration, application testing, application maintenance, infrastructure services and business process services. Additionally, the company develops, licenses, implements and supports proprietary and third-party software products and platforms. The company has organized its services and solutions into four practice areas: Digital Business, Digital Operations, Digital Systems and Technology and Consulting.

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc.

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store is principally engaged in the operation and development of the Cracker Barrel Old Country Store? concept. The format of the company's stores consists of a trademarked rustic old country-store design providing a restaurant menu that features home-style country food and a variety of items such as rocking chairs, holiday and seasonal gifts, toys, apparel, cookware and foods. The company's restaurants serve breakfast, lunch and dinner daily. Lunch and dinner items include southern fried chicken, chicken and dumplings, chicken fried chicken, meatloaf, country fried steak, pork chops, fish, steak, roast beef, vegetable plates, sandwiches and a variety of salads.

Equity Residential

Equity Residential is a real estate investment trust. The company focuses on the acquisition, development and management of rental apartment properties. The company is the general partner of, and owns an ownership interest in ERP Operating Limited Partnership (ERPOP). All of the company's property ownership, development and related business operations are conducted through ERPOP and those entities/subsidiaries owned or controlled by ERPOP (collectively, Operating Partnership). The Operating Partnership holds substantially all of the assets of the company The company, directly or indirectly through investments in title holding entities, owns all or a portion of its properties located in several states and the District of Columbia.

Euronet Worldwide Inc.

Euronet Worldwide is an electronic payments provider. The company provides payment and transaction processing and distribution solutions to financial institutions, retailers, service providers and individual consumers. The company operates three segments: Electronic Financial Transaction Processing, which processes transactions for a network of automated teller machines and point-of-sale terminals; epay, which provides distribution and processing of prepaid mobile airtime and other electronic content and payment processing services for various prepaid products, cards and services; and Money Transfer, which provides consumer-to-consumer and global account-to-account money transfer services.

Ford Motor Company

Ford Motor designs, manufactures, markets, and services a line of Ford cars, trucks, sport utility vehicles, electrified vehicles, and Lincoln vehicles, as well as provides financial services through its subsidiary, Ford Motor Credit Company LLC. The company is engaged in electrification; mobility solutions, including self-driving services; and connected vehicle services. The company has three operating segments: Automotive, which includes the sale of Ford and Lincoln vehicles, service parts, and accessories; Mobility, which includes its autonomous vehicles and its investment in mobility through Ford Smart Mobility LLC; and Ford Credit, which includes vehicle-related financing and leasing activities.

Hologic Inc.

Hologic is a developer, manufacturer and supplier of diagnostics products, medical imaging systems, surgical products and light-based aesthetic and medical treatment systems. The company's segments are: Diagnostics, which provides diagnostic products which are used to aid in the diagnosis of human diseases; Breast Health, which provides solutions for breast cancer care for radiology, pathology and surgery; Medical Aesthetics, which provides aesthetic treatment systems, including SculpSure, PicoSure and MonaLisa Touch; GYN Surgical, which includes NovaSure Endometrial Ablation System to treat abnormal uterine bleeding; and Skeletal Health, which includes the Horizon DXA, a dual energy x-ray system.

II-VI Incorporated

II-VI develops, manufactures, and markets engineered materials, optoelectronic components, and devices for a range of applications. The company has three segments: II-VI Laser Solutions, which designs, manufactures, and markets optical and electro-optical components and materials sold under the II-VI Infrared brand name; II-VI Photonics, which manufactures crystal materials, optics, microchip lasers, and optoelectronic modules for use in optical communication networks and other consumer applications; and II-VI Performance Products, which designs, manufactures, and markets infrared optical components and optical assemblies for aerospace and defense, medical and commercial laser imaging applications.

Inovalon Holdings Inc. Class A

Inovalon Holdings is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is engaged in providing cloud-based platforms empowering data-driven healthcare. Through the Inovalon ONE? Platform, the company brings to the marketplace a capability to interconnect with the healthcare ecosystem, aggregate and analyze data in real-time. The company's technology platforms and analytics are informed by data pertaining to physicians, clinical facilities, individuals, and medical events. The company sells subscription licensing of its platform solutions, as well as provides related arrangements for advisory, implementation, and support services.

Lam Research Corporation

Lam Research is a supplier of wafer fabrication equipment and services to the semiconductor industry. The company designs, manufactures, markets, refurbishes, and services semiconductor processing equipment used in the fabrication of integrated circuits. The company's customer base includes semiconductor memory, foundry, and integrated device manufacturers that make products such as non-volatile memory, dynamic random-access memory, and logic devices. The company's services include customer service, spares, improvement, and refurbishment of its deposition, etch, and clean products. The company sells its products and services to companies in the United States, China, Europe, Japan, Korea, Southeast Asia, and Taiwan.

LGI Homes Inc.

LGI Homes is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is engaged in the design, construction, and sale of new homes in markets in Texas, Arizona, Florida, Georgia, New Mexico, South Carolina, North Carolina, Colorado, Washington, Tennessee, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Alabama, California, Oregon, and Nevada. The company's product offerings include entry-level homes, including both detached homes and townhomes, and move-up homes sold, which are sold under its LGI Homes brand, and its luxury series homes, which are sold under its Terrata Homes brand. The company's homebuilding operations are organized and managed by seven divisions: West, Northwest, Central, Midwest, Florida, Southeast and Mid-Atlantic.

Lockheed Martin Corporation

Lockheed Martin is a security and aerospace company. The company has four segments: Aeronautics, which is engaged in the research, design, development, manufacture, integration, sustainment, support and upgrade of military aircraft; Missiles and Fire Control, which provides air and missile defense systems, logistics, fire control systems, and mission operations support; Rotary and Mission Systems, which provides design, manufacture, service and support for military and commercial helicopters, radar systems, and simulation and training services; Space, which researches, designs, develops, engineers and produces satellites, space transportation systems, and strategic, strike, and defensive systems.

NXP Semiconductors NV

NXP Semiconductors is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, Co. is engaged as a global semiconductor company and a long-standing supplier in the industry. Co. provides High-Performance Mixed-Signal and Standard Product solutions. Co.'s product solutions are used in automotive, identification, wireless infrastructure, lighting, industrial, mobile, consumer and computing applications. Co. engages with original equipment manufacturers (OEM) and sell products in all major geographic regions.

Polaris Inc.

Polaris designs, engineers and manufactures powersports vehicles which include, off-road vehicles, including all-terrain vehicles and side-by-side vehicles for recreational and utility use, snowmobiles, motorcycles, global adjacent markets vehicles, including commercial, government and defense vehicles, and boats. The company's products, together with related Parts, Garments and Accessories, as well as aftermarket accessories and apparel, are sold through dealers, distributors and retail stores principally located in the United States, Canada, Western Europe, Australia and Mexico.

Post Holdings Inc.

Post Holdings is a consumer packaged goods holding company. The company's segments are: Post Consumer Brands, which manufactures, markets and sells branded and private label ready-to-eat (RTE) cereal and hot cereal products; Weetabix, which markets and distributes branded and private label RTE cereal products; Foodservice, which produces and distributes egg and potato products; Refrigerated Retail, which produces and distributes side dishes, eggs and egg, cheese, sausage and other refrigerated products; and BellRing Brands, which markets and distributes ready-to-drink protein shakes, other RTD beverages, powders, nutrition bars and supplements in the nutrition category.

Vista Outdoor Inc

Vista Outdoor is a designer, manufacturer and marketer of consumer products in the outdoor sports and recreation markets. The company's Outdoor Products product lines are action sports, archery/hunting accessories, outdoor cooking, golf, hydration products, optics, shooting accessories and tactical products. The Shooting Sports segment designs, develops, produces, and sources ammunition and firearms for the hunting and sport shooting markets, as well as ammunition for local law enforcement, the U.S. government and international markets. The Shooting Sports product lines include centerfire ammunition, rimfire ammunition, shotshell ammunition, reloading components, and firearms.

WEC Energy Group Inc

WEC Energy Group is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company provides regulated natural gas and electricity, and nonregulated renewable energy. The company's segments include: Wisconsin, which generates and distributes electric energy and provides retail natural gas distribution service; Illinois, which includes the natural gas utility operations; Electric Transmission, which owns, maintains, monitors, and operates electric transmission systems in Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, and Minnesota; and Non-Utility Energy Infrastructure, which owns and leases generating facilities to its Wisconsin Electric Power Company subsidiary and owns underground natural gas storage facilities in Michigan.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

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