Report
Valens Research

ADS - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2020 09 10

Alliance Data Systems Corporation (ADS:USA) currently trades at a historical low relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) earnings, with an 11.3x Uniform P/E. At these levels, the market has bearish expectations for the firm, and management may be concerned about cardmembers, data and analytics investments, and digital approach

Specifically, management may lack confidence in their ability to develop long-term strategies, and they may be exaggerating their commitment to investing in data and analytics. In addition, they may have concerns about their card members' ability to manage payment obligations on their balances, continued asset impairment charges, and suspending their share repurchase programs. Furthermore, they may be overstating the importance of a digital approach going forward, and the potential of a Tile Shop partnership
Underlying
Alliance Data Systems Corporation

Alliance Data Systems is a provider of data-driven marketing and loyalty solutions. The company operates in two segments: LoyaltyOne? and Card Services. LoyaltyOne provides coalition and short-term loyalty programs through the Canadian AIR MILES? Reward Program and BrandLoyalty Group B.V. Card Services encompasses credit card processing, billing and payment processing, customer care and collections services for private label retailers as well as private label and co-brand retail credit card and loan receivables financing, including securitization and other funding of certain credit card and loan receivables that it underwrites from its private label and co-brand retail credit card programs.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
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  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

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