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Valens Research

Valens Equity Insights and Inflections - 2019 06 26

SQ is currently trading at historical highs relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) Earnings, with a 72.3x Uniform P/E. At these levels, the market is pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to improve from 21% in 2018 to 28% by 2023, accompanied by 30% Uniform Asset growth going forward. However, analysts have relatively muted expectations, projecting Uniform ROA to remain at 21% through 2020, accompanied by 34% Uniform Asset growth. Moreover, management appears to have concerns about their mobile app sales strategy, revenue growth, and the benefits of Square Card and the Cash app, suggesting multiple compression and overall underperformance may be warranted for the name.

SQ Q1 2019 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA expansion, but management has concerns about their sales strategy, growth, and products.

CHRW Q1 2019 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to fade to new lows, and management has concerns about their Global Forwarding segment, growth, and tariffs.

SHW Q1 2019 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA expansion, but management has concerns about markets, growth, and their pipeline
SQ, CHRW, DLR, SHW, AMZN, BBY, BKD, COST, EQT, GD, IRM, JD, LDOS, LUV, MAS, MBUU, MTD, OMC, SYY, TTWO, YUM.
Underlyings
Amazon.com Inc.

Amazon.com serves consumers through its online and physical stores. The company also manufactures and sells electronic devices, including Kindle, Fire tablet, Fire TV, Echo, and Ring, and the company develops and produces media content. The company operates customer service centers and provides programs that enable sellers to grow their businesses, sell their products in its stores, and fulfill orders through the company The company serves developers and enterprises of various sizes, including start-ups, government agencies, and academic institutions, through its Amazon Web Services segment, which provides a set of global compute, storage, database, and other service offerings. The company also provides services, such as advertising.

Best Buy Co. Inc.

Best Buy provides computing and mobile phones, consumer electronics, appliances, entertainment, services and other products. The company operates two reportable segments: Domestic, which is comprised of the operations in all states, districts and territories of the U.S. under various brand names including Best Buy, bestbuy.com, Best Buy Direct, Best Buy Express, Best Buy Mobile, Geek Squad, GreatCall, Magnolia and Pacific Kitchen and Home; and International, which is comprised of all operations in Canada and Mexico under the brand names Best Buy, Best Buy Express, Best Buy Mobile, Geek Squad and the domain names bestbuy.ca and bestbuy.com.mx.

Brookdale Senior Living Inc.

Brookdale Senior Living is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is an operator of senior living communities. The company's Community offerings include: independent living, which is for middle to upper income seniors; assisted living and memory care, which provides housing and assistance to mid-acuity frail and elderly residents; and continuing care retirement, which provides living arrangements and services to accommodate various physical ability and health. Through its Health Care Services segment the company provides home health, hospice and outpatient therapy services, and education and wellness programs, to residents of its communities and to seniors living outside of its communities.

C.H. Robinson Worldwide Inc.

Robinson (C.H.) Worldwide is a third party logistics company. The company provides freight transportation services and logistics solutions to companies. The company's segments are: North American Surface Transportation, which provides freight transportation services across North America through a network of offices; and Global Forwarding, which provides global logistics services through an international network of offices and also contracts with independent agents; and All Other and Corporate, which includes Robinson Fresh? that provides sourcing services including the buying, selling, and marketing of fresh fruits, vegetables, and other perishable items, and managed services that provides Managed TMS?.

Costco Wholesale Corporation

Costco Wholesale and its subsidiaries are principally engaged in the operation of membership warehouses based on the concept of providing its members low prices on a selection of nationally branded and private-label products. The company's merchandise are: food and sundries, which include dry foods, packaged foods, and groceries, snack foods, candy, alcoholic and nonalcoholic beverages, and cleaning supplies; hardlines, which include appliances, electronics, health and beauty aids, hardware, and garden and patio; fresh food, which include meat, produce, deli, and bakery; softlines, which include apparel and small appliances; and ancillary, which include gas stations and pharmacy businesses.

Digital Realty Trust Inc.

Digital Realty Trust is a real estate investment trust. The company is a global provider of data center, colocation and interconnection solutions for customers across a variety of industry verticals ranging from cloud and information technology services, communications and social networking to financial services, manufacturing, energy, healthcare, and consumer products. The company's Operating Partnership, Digital Realty Trust, L.P., is the entity through which the company conducts its business of owning, acquiring, developing and operating data centers. The company's portfolio of data centers provides available environments for the exchange, processing and storage of electronic information.

EQT Corporation

EQT is a natural gas production company with operations focus in the Marcellus and Utica shales of the Appalachian Basin.

General Dynamics Corporation

General Dynamics is an aerospace and defense company. The company has five operating segments: Aerospace, which provides a family of Gulfstream aircraft and services for business aircraft produced by Gulfstream and other original equipment manufacturers; Combat Systems, which provides combat vehicles, weapons systems and munitions; Information Technology, which provides information technology (IT) services, IT infrastructure modernization and professional services; Mission Systems, which provides mission-critical products and systems; and Marine Systems, which designs and builds nuclear-powered submarines, surface combatants, and auxiliary and combat-logistics ships.

Iron Mountain Inc.

Iron Mountain is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company stores physical records and data backup media, providing information management solutions, and providing data center space for colocation and hyperscale deployments. The company's segments are: Global Records and Information Management Business, which provides records management, data management, information governance and digital solutions, secure shredding, and consumer storage; Global Data Center Business, which provides data center facilities; and Corporate and Other Business, which provides entertainment and media that helps industry clients store, safeguard and deliver physical media of various types.

JD.com Inc. Sponsored ADR Class A

Leidos Holdings Inc.

Leidos Holdings is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is engaged in a science, engineering and information technology that provides services and solutions in the defense, intelligence, civil and health markets. The company's defense solutions segment deploys solutions in the areas of intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance, enterprise information technology, integrated systems, cybersecurity and global services. The company's civil segment integrates and protects physical, digital and data domains. The company's health segment delivers solutions to federal and commercial customers that are responsible for the health and well-being of people including service members and veterans.

Malibu Boats Inc. Class A

Malibu Boats is a holding company. Through its subsidiary, Malibu Boats Holdings, LLC, the company is a designer, manufacturer and marketer of recreational powerboats, including performance sport boats, sterndrive and outboard boats under four brands: Malibu, Axis, Cobalt, and Pursuit. The company's product portfolio is used for a range of recreational boating activities including, among others, water sports such as water skiing, wakeboarding and wake surfing, as well as recreational boating. The company also provides various accessories and aftermarket parts. The company's boats are constructed of fiberglass, available in a range of sizes, hull designs and propulsion systems (i.e., inboard, sterndrive and outboard).

Masco Corporation

Masco designs, manufactures and distributes home improvement and building products. The company's Plumbing Products include faucets, showerheads, handheld showers, valves, bath hardware and accessories, bathing units, shower bases and enclosures and toilets. This segment also includes brass, copper and composite plumbing system components and other non-decorative plumbing products. The company's Decorative Architectural Products include cabinet and door hardware, functional hardware, wall plates, hook and hook rail products, and picture hanging accessories. This segment also includes decorative indoor and outdoor lighting fixtures, ceiling fans, landscape lighting and LED lighting systems.

Mettler-Toledo International Inc.

Mettler-Toledo International is a supplier of precision instruments and services. The company manufactures weighing instruments for use in laboratory, industrial, packaging, logistics, and food retailing applications. The company also manufactures several related analytical instruments and provides automated chemistry solutions used in drug and chemical compound discovery and development. In addition, the company manufactures metal detection and other end-of-line inspection systems used in production and packaging and provides solutions for use in certain process analytics applications. The company has five segments: United States Operations, Swiss Operations, Western European Operations, Chinese Operations, and Other.

Omnicom Group Inc

Omnicom Group is a holding company, engaged in providing advertising, marketing and corporate communications services. The company's networks and agencies provide a range of services in the following fundamental disciplines: advertising, customer relationship management, public relations and healthcare. The company's Service offerings include, among others, advertising, branding, content marketing, corporate social responsibility consulting, crisis communications, custom publishing, data analytics, database management, digital/direct marketing, digital transformation, entertainment marketing, experiential marketing, field marketing, financial/corporate business-to-business advertising, and imaging.

Sherwin-Williams Company

Sherwin-Williams is engaged in the development, manufacture, distribution and sale of paint, coatings and related products to industrial, commercial and retail customers. The company's segments are: The Americas Group, which markets and sells Sherwin-Williams? and other controlled brand architectural paint and coatings, protective and marine products, OEM product finishes and related products; Consumer Brands Group, which supplies architectural paints, stains, varnishes, and industrial products, among others; and Performance Coatings Group, which develops and sells industrial coatings, automotive refinish, protective and marine coatings, coil coatings, packaging coatings and resins and colorants.

SOUTHWEST AIRLINES CO

Southwest Airlines operates Southwest Airlines, a passenger airline that provides scheduled air transportation in the United States and near-international markets. The company has Boeing 737 aircraft in its fleet and serves destinations in various states, the District of Columbia, the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, and other near-international countries such as Mexico, Jamaica, The Bahamas, Aruba, Dominican Republic, Costa Rica, Belize, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Turks and Caicos. The company principally provides point-to-point service, which allows for direct nonstop routing. The company also provides a suite of digital platforms to support Customers' needs prior to and during the course of their travel.

Square Inc. Class A

Square is a commerce ecosystem that combines software with hardware to enable sellers to turn mobile devices and computing devices into payment and point-of-sale solutions. With the company's offering, a seller can accept payments via magnetic stripe, Europay, MasterCard, and Visa, or Near Field Communication; or online via Square Invoices, Square Virtual Terminal, or the seller's website or app. Also, sellers can gain access to reporting and analytics, next-day settlements, digital receipts, payment dispute and chargeback management, security, and Payment Card Industry compliance. The company's Cash App enable individuals to send and receive money electronically to and from individuals and businesses.

Sysco Corporation

Sysco, acting through its subsidiaries and divisions, is a distributor of food and related products primarily to the foodservice or food-away-from-home industry. The company has three reportable segments: United States Foodservice Operations, which primarily include United States Broadline operations, which distribute a line of food products, including custom-cut meat, seafood, specialty produce, specialty imports and a variety of non-food products; International Foodservice Operations, which include operations in the Americas and Europe, which distribute a line of food products and a variety of non-food products; and SYGMA, which consists of its United States customized distribution subsidiary.

Take-Two Interactive Software Inc.

Take-Two Interactive Software is a developer, publisher and marketer of interactive entertainment for consumers. The company develops and publishes products principally through its two wholly-owned labels Rockstar Games and 2K, as well as its Private Division label and Social Point, a developer of mobile games. The company's products are designed for console gaming systems such as the Sony Computer Entertainment, Inc. PlayStation?4, Microsoft Corporation Xbox One?, and Xbox 360?, the Nintendo Switch, and personal computers, including smartphones and tablets. The company delivers its products through physical retail, digital download, online platforms and cloud streaming services.

Yum! Brands Inc.

Yum! Brands franchises or operates a system of quick service restaurants through its KFC, Pizza Hut and Taco Bell brands. The company's operating segments consist of the KFC Division, the Pizza Hut Division and the Taco Bell Division. KFC restaurants provides fried and non-fried chicken products such as sandwiches, chicken strips, chicken-on-the-bone and other chicken products marketed under a variety of names. Pizza Hut is engaged in the sale of ready-to-eat pizza products. Pizza Hut operates in the delivery, carryout and casual dining segments. Taco Bell is engaged in Mexican-style food products, including various types of tacos, burritos, quesadillas, salads, nachos and other related items.

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Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
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  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

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