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Valens Research

Valens Equity Insights and Inflections - 2021 04 06

Current market expectations for LAMR are for flat profitability for the next several years.
Markets expect UAFRS-based ROA (Uniform ROA or ROA') to remain around 8% going forward, with steady 5% growth.

However, the company's returns have steadily been improving the last several years as the
billboard operator has been moving to digitize its fleet of billboards, allowing it to significantly ramp profitability. With less than 3% digitization penetration, the company has a long way to go on continuing to digitize its footprint, which points to continued ROA expansion and earnings growth the market is not pricing in.

On top of that, management is aligned to execute on the digitization strategy, as Lamar's REIT structure prevents them from overinvesting in the business, while management is still
compensated to boost growth and profitability. The only way for them to achieve this with the capex constraints the company's REIT structure creates is through its digitization strategy, which is a positive for investors.

Also, while management is concerned about its near-term outlook for ad spending, management's potential sandbagging recently around both digital conversion rates and its potential to tactically acquire more billboards to convert are both potentially bullish.
Considering low market expectations for return expansion going forward, management's
sound business strategy, smart alignment that focuses it on executing, and potential tailwinds around conversation based on management comments, Lamar looks to have significant potential equity upside.

EPAM Q4 2020 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to reach new peaks, but management may have concerns about growth, margins, and investments

PAYC Q4 2020 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to rebound, but management may be concerned about revenue growth, new innovations, and demand

ZM Q4 2021 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to reach new highs, but management may have concerns about customer growth, platform opportunities, and their product ecosystem

LAMR, EPAM, PAYC, ZM, ADI, AMZN, CPRT, DLTR, EEFT, F, KEYS, MGIC, MTCH, ON, TDG, TTD, XYL
Underlyings
Amazon.com Inc.

Amazon.com serves consumers through its online and physical stores. The company also manufactures and sells electronic devices, including Kindle, Fire tablet, Fire TV, Echo, and Ring, and the company develops and produces media content. The company operates customer service centers and provides programs that enable sellers to grow their businesses, sell their products in its stores, and fulfill orders through the company The company serves developers and enterprises of various sizes, including start-ups, government agencies, and academic institutions, through its Amazon Web Services segment, which provides a set of global compute, storage, database, and other service offerings. The company also provides services, such as advertising.

Analog Devices Inc.

Analog Devices is an analog technology company. The company designs, manufactures, and markets a portfolio of solutions, including integrated circuits, algorithms, software, and subsystems. The company's analog products include data converter that translate real-world analog signals into digital data and also translate digital data into analog signals, amplifiers that condition analog signals, and power management and reference products that include functions such as power conversion, driver monitoring, sequencing and energy management. The company's digital signal processing products are designed to execute software programs, or algorithms, associated with processing digitized real-time, real-world data.

Copart Inc.

Copart is a provider of online auctions and vehicle remarketing services. The company provides vehicle sellers with a range of services to process and sell vehicles primarily over the Internet through its Virtual Bidding Third Generation Internet auction-style sales technology. Vehicle sellers consist primarily of insurance companies, but also include banks, finance companies, charities, fleet operators, dealers and vehicles sourced directly from individual owners. The company sells the vehicles principally to licensed vehicle dismantlers, rebuilders, repair licensees, used vehicle dealers and exporters and, at certain locations, to the general public.

Dollar Tree Inc.

Dollar Tree is an operator of discount variety stores. The company's stores operate under the names of Dollar Tree, Family Dollar and Dollar Tree Canada. The company's segments are: Dollar Tree, which is the operator of discount variety stores providing merchandise at the fixed price point of $1.00; and Family Dollar, which operates general merchandise discount retail stores. The merchandise mix in the company's Dollar Tree stores consists of consumable merchandise, variety merchandise, and seasonal goods. The merchandise mix in the company's Family Dollar stores consists of consumable merchandise, home products, apparel and accessories merchandise, and seasonal and electronics merchandise.

EPAM Systems Inc.

Epam Systems is a provider of software product development and digital platform engineering services to customers located around the world, primarily in North America, Europe, Asia and Australia. The company's industry services include financial services, travel and consumer, software and hi-tech, business information and media, life sciences and healthcare, as well as other industries.

Euronet Worldwide Inc.

Euronet Worldwide is an electronic payments provider. The company provides payment and transaction processing and distribution solutions to financial institutions, retailers, service providers and individual consumers. The company operates three segments: Electronic Financial Transaction Processing, which processes transactions for a network of automated teller machines and point-of-sale terminals; epay, which provides distribution and processing of prepaid mobile airtime and other electronic content and payment processing services for various prepaid products, cards and services; and Money Transfer, which provides consumer-to-consumer and global account-to-account money transfer services.

Ford Motor Company

Ford Motor designs, manufactures, markets, and services a line of Ford cars, trucks, sport utility vehicles, electrified vehicles, and Lincoln vehicles, as well as provides financial services through its subsidiary, Ford Motor Credit Company LLC. The company is engaged in electrification; mobility solutions, including self-driving services; and connected vehicle services. The company has three operating segments: Automotive, which includes the sale of Ford and Lincoln vehicles, service parts, and accessories; Mobility, which includes its autonomous vehicles and its investment in mobility through Ford Smart Mobility LLC; and Ford Credit, which includes vehicle-related financing and leasing activities.

Keysight Technologies Inc

Keysight Technologies is a technology company. The company's segments are: Communications Solutions Group, which provides electronic design and test software, instruments and systems and related services used in the simulation, design, validation, manufacturing, installation and optimization of electronic equipment; Electronic Industrial Solutions Group, which provides test and measurement solutions and related services across a set of electronic industrial end markets; and Ixia Solutions Group, which helps customers design, validate and support the performance and security of their networks and associated components and applications.

Lamar Advertising Company Class A

Lamar Advertising is a real estate investment trust and an outdoor advertising company. The company leases space for advertising on billboards, buses, shelters, benches, logo plates and in airport terminals. The company's outdoor advertising displays are: billboards, in which the company leases its advertising space on bulletins and posters; logo signs, which erects logo signs that advertise nearby gas, food, camping, lodging and other attractions, and directional signs that direct vehicle traffic to nearby services and tourist attractions, near highway exits; and transit advertising displays, in which the company rents transit advertising displays in airport terminals and on bus shelters, benches and buses.

Magic Software Enterprises Ltd.

Magic Software Enterprises is a provider of: proprietary application development and business process integration platforms; selected packaged vertical software solutions; as well as a vendor of software services and Internet Technology outsourcing software services. Co.'s software technology is used by customers to develop, deploy and integrate on-premise, mobile and cloud-based business applications. Co. provides a portfolio of services in the areas of infrastructure design and delivery, application development, technology consulting planning and implementation services, support services, cloud computing for deployment of applications and API's and supplemental outsourcing services.

Match Group Inc.

ON Semiconductor Corporation

ON Semiconductor is engaged in energy efficient electronics. The company is organized into three segments: Power Solutions Group, which provides a range of discrete, module and integrated semiconductor products; Analog Solutions Group, which designs and develops analog, mixed-signal, and advanced logic application specific integrated circuits and Application Specific Standard Product, and power solutions; and Image Sensor Group, which designs and develops complementary metal oxide semiconductor and charge-coupled device image sensors, as well as proximity sensors, image signal processors and actuator drivers for autofocus and image stabilization for automotive and industrial markets, among others.

Paycom Software Inc.

Paycom Software is a provider of cloud-based human capital management (HCM) solution delivered as Software-as- a-Service. The company provides functionality and data analytics that businesses need to manage the complete employment lifecycle, from recruitment to retirement. The company's solution requires virtually no customization and is based on a core system of record maintained in a single database for various HCM functions, including talent acquisition, time and labor management, payroll, talent management and human resources management applications. The company's solution was developed in-house and is based on a single platform, there is no need to integrate, update or access various databases.

Trade Desk Inc. Class A

The Trade Desk is a technology company for buyers of advertising. Through the company's self-service, cloud-based platform, ad buyers can create, manage, and optimize data-driven digital advertising campaigns across ad formats, including display, video, audio, native and social, on a multitude of devices, such as computers, mobile devices, and connected TV. The company's platform's integrations with data, inventory, and publisher partners provides ad buyers reach and decisioning capabilities, and its enterprise application programming interfaces enable its customers to develop on top of the platform.

TransDigm Group Incorporated

TransDigm Group is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company designs, produces and supplies aircraft components for use on commercial and military aircraft. The company's segments are: Power and Control, which develops, produces and markets systems and components that provide power to or control power of the aircraft utilizing electronic, fluid, power and mechanical motion control technologies; Airframe, which develops, produces and markets systems and components that are used in non-power airframe applications utilizing airframe and cabin structure technologies; and Non-aviation, which develops, produces and markets products for non-aviation markets.

Xylem Inc.

Xylem is water technology company. The company designs, manufactures and services engineered solutions ranging across a variety of applications primarily in the water sector, but also in electric and gas. The company's business segments are: water infrastructure, which serves the water infrastructure sector with pump systems, filtration, ultraviolet and ozone systems and pumping solutions; Applied Water, which serves the usage applications sector with water pressure boosting systems; and Measurement and Control Solutions, which serves the utility infrastructure solutions and services sector by delivering communications, smart metering, measurement and control technologies and infrastructure technologies.

Zoom Video Communications Inc. Class A

Zoom Video Communications provides a video-first communications platform that delivers happiness and fundamentally changes how people interact. The company connects people through frictionless video, voice, chat and content sharing and enable face-to-face video experiences for thousands of people in a single meeting across disparate devices and locations. The company's cloud-native platform delivers reliable, high-quality video that is easy to use, manage and deploy, provides an attractive return on investment, is scalable and easily integrates with physical spaces and applications.

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Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
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We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

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  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

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