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Valens Research

Valens Equity Insights and Inflections - 2020 04 07

TTD currently trades above corporate averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) earnings, with a 35.7x Uniform P/E. However, even at these levels, the market is pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to collapse from 31% in 2019 to 6% in 2024, accompanied by 62% Uniform asset growth going forward. Meanwhile, analysts have similar expectations, projecting Uniform ROA to fade to 20% by 2021, accompanied by 28% Uniform asset growth. That said, management is confident about their consistent EBITDA outperformance, their contextual targeting capability, and their customer loyalty strategies. Current valuations appear to be pricing in overly bearish expectations for TTD, and should the firm just limit its profitability decline, as positive management sentiment suggests, upside would be warranted.

AMC Q4 2019 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to expand, but management is concerned about capital allocation, attendance, and compensation

MIDD Q4 2019 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to reach new lows, but management is confident about margins, growth, and R&D

KLAC Q2 2020 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for declines in Uniform ROA, but management is confident about their operating model, revenue, and their capital return program

TTD,AMC,KLAC,MIDD,AXL,BLKB,CLW,CSCO,ENTA,EOG,GD,GNRC,GRUB,HGV,IPGP,MLM,ORCL,PANW,TGNA,VGR
Underlyings
AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. Class A

AMC Entertainment Holdings is a theatrical exhibition company. Through its direct and indirect subsidiaries, including American Multi-Cinema, Inc. and its subsidiaries, the company is principally involved in theatrical exhibition business and owns, operates or has interests in theatres primarily located in the U.S. and Europe. The company provides consumers a range of entertainment alternatives including film programming, independent and foreign films, performing arts, music and sports. The company also provides food and beverage alternatives such as made-to-order meals, customized coffee, snacks, beer, wine, cocktails and dine-in theatre options.

AMERICAN AXLE & MANUFACTURING HLDGS

American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings is a supplier to the automotive industry. The company designs, engineers and manufactures driveline and metal forming products. The company's business is organized into Driveline and Metal Forming segments. Driveline products consist primarily of front and rear axles, driveshafts, differential assemblies, clutch modules, balance shaft systems, disconnecting driveline technology, and electric and hybrid driveline products and systems. Metal Forming products consist primarily of axle and transmission shafts, ring and pinion gears, differential gears and assemblies, connecting rods and variable valve timing products.

Blackbaud Inc.

Blackbaud is a cloud software company. The company is engaged in providing software solutions in cloud and hosted environments, providing payment and transaction services, providing software maintenance and support services, and providing services, including implementation, consulting, training, analytic and other services. The company's portfolio provides fundraising and relationship management, marketing and engagement, financial management, grant and award management, organizational and program management (such as education management, church management and ticketing), social responsibility, payment services and analytics.

Cisco Systems Inc.

Cisco Systems designs and sells a range of technologies that power the Internet. The company's business is organized into the following three geographic segments: Americas; Europe, Middle East, and Africa; and Asia Pacific, Japan, and China. The company's products and technologies are grouped into the following categories: Infrastructure Platforms; Applications; Security and Other Products. In addition to its product offerings, the company provides a range of service offerings, including technical support services and other services. The company delivers its technologies through software and services. The company's customers include businesses of all sizes, public institutions, governments, and service providers.

Clearwater Paper Corporation

Clearwater Paper manufactures consumer tissue, away-from-home tissue (AFH), parent roll tissue, bleached paperboard and pulp. The company is a supplier of private label tissue to retailers and wholesale distributors. In addition, the company produces bleached paperboard and provides services that include custom sheeting, slitting and cutting. The company's segments are: Consumer Products, which manufactures and sells a complete line of at-home tissue products as well as AFH products; and Pulp and Paperboard, which consists primarily of folding carton, liquid packaging, cup and plate products, blister and carded packaging, top sheet, commercial printing grades and hardwood and softwood pulp.

Enanta Pharmaceuticals Inc.

Enanta Pharmaceuticals is a biotechnology company that creates small molecule drugs primarily for the treatment of viral infections and liver diseases. The company's wholly owned research and development programs are in virology, namely respiratory syncytial virus and hepatitis B virus, and in liver disease (non-virology), namely non-alcoholic steatohepatitis and primary biliary cholangitis. Through its Collaborative Development and License Agreement with AbbVie Inc (AbbVie), the company has discovered and out-licensed to AbbVie two protease inhibitor compounds that have been clinically tested, manufactured, and commercialized by AbbVie for the treatment of hepatitis C virus.

EOG Resources Inc.

EOG Resources, together with its subsidiaries, explores for, develops, produces and markets crude oil, natural gas liquids and natural gas primarily in main producing basins in the United States, The Republic of Trinidad and Tobago, The People's Republic of China, Canada and, from time to time, select other international areas.

Generac Holdings Inc.

Generac Holdings is a designer and manufacturer of a range of power generation equipment and other power products serving the residential, light commercial and industrial markets. The company's products include residential, commercial and industrial standby generators, as well as portable and mobile generators used in a range of applications. Other engine powered products that the company designs and manufactures include light towers which provide temporary lighting for various end markets; commercial and industrial mobile heaters and pumps used in the oil and gas, construction and other industrial markets; and a product line of outdoor power equipment for residential and commercial use.

General Dynamics Corporation

General Dynamics is an aerospace and defense company. The company has five operating segments: Aerospace, which provides a family of Gulfstream aircraft and services for business aircraft produced by Gulfstream and other original equipment manufacturers; Combat Systems, which provides combat vehicles, weapons systems and munitions; Information Technology, which provides information technology (IT) services, IT infrastructure modernization and professional services; Mission Systems, which provides mission-critical products and systems; and Marine Systems, which designs and builds nuclear-powered submarines, surface combatants, and auxiliary and combat-logistics ships.

GRUBHUB INC

Grubhub and its wholly-owned subsidiaries provide an online and mobile platform for restaurant pick-up and delivery orders. The company connects diners and restaurants through restaurant technology and platforms. Diners enter their delivery address or use geo-location within the mobile applications and the company displays the menus and other relevant information for restaurants in its network. Orders may be placed directly online, via mobile applications or over the phone. The company primarily charges the restaurant a per order commission that is fee based. In several markets, the company also provides delivery services to restaurants on its platform that do not have their own delivery operations.

Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.

Hilton Grand Vacations is a timeshare company engaged in developing, marketing, selling and managing timeshare resorts under the Hilton Grand Vacations brand. The company's operations mainly consist of: selling vacation ownership intervals for it and third parties; financing and servicing loans provided to consumers for their timeshare purchases; operating resorts; and managing its points-based Hilton Grand Vacations Club and Hilton Club exchange program. The company has properties located in vacation destinations such as the Orlando, Las Vegas, Hawaiian Islands, New York City, Washington D.C. and South Carolina. The company's segments are: real estate sales and financing and resort operations and club management.

IPG Photonics Corporation

IPG Photonics is a developer and manufacturer of a line of fiber lasers, fiber amplifiers and diode lasers that are used in various applications, primarily in materials processing. The company designs and manufactures a range of optical fiber-based lasers and amplifiers. The company also makes packaged diodes, direct diode lasers, laser systems and communications components and systems. A majority of the company's products are designed to be used as general-purpose energy or light sources.

KLA Corporation

KLA is a supplier of process control and yield management solutions for the semiconductor and related nanoelectronics industries. The company provides process control and process-enabling solutions for manufacturing and testing wafers and reticles, integrated circuits, packaging, light emitting diodes, power devices, compound semiconductor devices, microelectromechanical systems, data storage, printed circuit boards (PCBs), and flat and flexible panel displays, as well as general materials research. The company has four reportable segments which include Semiconductor Process Control; Specialty Semiconductor Process; PCB, Display and Component Inspection; and Other.

Martin Marietta Materials Inc.

Martin Marietta Materials is a natural resource-based building materials company. The company supplies aggregates (crushed stone, sand and gravel) through its network of quarries, mines and distribution yards. The company also provides cement and downstream products, namely, ready mixed concrete, asphalt and paving services. The company conducts its Building Materials business through three segments: Mid-America Group, Southeast Group and West Group. The Mid-America and Southeast Groups provide aggregates products only. The West Group provides aggregates, cement and downstream products. The company also has the Magnesia Specialties segment, which includes its magnesia-based chemicals and dolomitic lime businesses.

Middleby Corporation

Middleby is engaged in the design, manufacture, marketing, distribution, and service of a line of foodservice equipment, food preparation, cooking, baking, chilling and packaging equipment, and kitchen equipment. The company's segments are: the Commercial Foodservice Equipment Group, which provides foodservice equipment to serve cooking, warming, refrigeration, freezing and beverage application within a commercial kitchen or foodservice operation; the Food Processing Equipment Group, which provides processing solutions for customers producing pre-cooked meat products; and the Residential Kitchen Equipment Group, which manufactures, sells and distributes kitchen equipment for the residential market.

Oracle Corporation

Oracle provides products and services that address enterprise information technology (IT) environments. The company's products and services include applications and infrastructure offerings. The company's cloud and license business engages in the sale, marketing and delivery of its applications and infrastructure technologies through cloud and on-premise deployment models including its cloud services and license support offerings; and its cloud license and on-premise license offerings. The company's hardware business provides Oracle Engineered Systems, servers, storage, industry-specific hardware, operating systems, virtualization, management and other hardware-related software to support diverse IT environments.

Palo Alto Networks Inc.

Palo Alto Networks provides a platform that allows enterprises, service providers, and government entities to secure their organizations. The company's platform uses a traffic classification engine that identifies network traffic by application, user, and content and provides security across the network, endpoint, and cloud. The company's product, subscription, and support offerings include: firewall appliances and software; and Panorama, which is a centralized security management solution for global control of various firewall appliances and software deployed on an end-customer's network as well as in their instances in public or private cloud environments as a virtual appliance or a physical appliance.

TEGNA Inc.

TEGNA is a media company. The company's business provides television programming and digital content. Each television station also has a digital presence across online, mobile and social platforms. The company provides advertising and marketing services, which include local and national non-political television advertising, digital marketing services, and advertising on stations' websites and tablet and mobile products; subscription by satellite, cable, Over the Top and telecommunications providers; political advertising; and other services, such as production of programming and advertising material. The company's portfolio of Big 4 NBC, CBS, ABC and FOX stations operate under long-term affiliation agreements.

Trade Desk Inc. Class A

The Trade Desk is a technology company for buyers of advertising. Through the company's self-service, cloud-based platform, ad buyers can create, manage, and optimize data-driven digital advertising campaigns across ad formats, including display, video, audio, native and social, on a multitude of devices, such as computers, mobile devices, and connected TV. The company's platform's integrations with data, inventory, and publisher partners provides ad buyers reach and decisioning capabilities, and its enterprise application programming interfaces enable its customers to develop on top of the platform.

Vector Group Ltd.

Vector Group is a holding company. The company is engaged principally in the manufacture and sale of cigarettes in the U.S. through its Liggett Group LLC (Liggett) and Vector Tobacco Inc. subsidiaries; and the real estate business through its New Valley LLC (New Valley) subsidiary. The company's business segments were Tobacco, and Real Estate. The Tobacco segment consists of the manufacture and sale of conventional cigarettes. The Real Estate segment includes the company's investment in New Valley, which includes Douglas Elliman, Escena, Sagaponack and investments in real estate ventures.

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