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Valens Research

Valens Equity Insights and Inflections - 2020 02 25

TRMB currently trades near corporate averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) Earnings, with a 21.5x Uniform P/E. At these levels, the market is pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to fade from 28% in 2018 to 24% by 2023, accompanied by 6% Uniform Asset growth going forward. Analysts have similar expectations, projecting Uniform ROA to decline to 26% by 2020, accompanied by 5% Uniform Asset growth. However, management is confident about their Geospatial segment growth, their Viewpoint and e-Builder acquisitions, and the Brazilian market outlook. Current valuations appear to be pricing in overly bearish expectations for TRMB, and should they just maintain profitability near current levels, as positive management sentiment suggests, upside would be warranted.
ISRG Q4 2019 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Markets have expectations for Uniform ROA to improve slightly, but management may be concerned about their offerings, growth rates, and acquisitions
MRK Q3 2019 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for a slight Uniform ROA recovery, but management appears concerned about KEYTRUDA, pricing, and their portfolio
PPL Q3 2019 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to slightly decline, but management is confident about their investments, opportunities, and strategy

TRMB, ISRG, MRK, PPL, AMN, BKE, CTSH, CTXS, CVS, GWRE, O, PODD, PPG, TPR, VTR, ZBH
Underlyings
AMN Healthcare Services Inc.

AMN Healthcare Services provides talent solutions for the healthcare sector. The company's talent solutions provides management, staffing, recruitment, technology, analytics, and related services to manage healthcare workforce needs. The company provides its healthcare personnel, from nurses, doctors, and allied health personnel to healthcare leaders and executives. The company's workforce solutions and staffing services include: travel nurse staffing; rapid response nurse staffing and labor disruption services; local, or per diem, staffing; locum tenens staffing; allied staffing; physician permanent placement services; interim leadership staffing and executive search services; and recruitment process outsourcing.

Buckle Inc.

The Buckle is a retailer of casual apparel, footwear, and accessories for young men and women. The company markets a selection of mainly brand name casual apparel including denims, other casual bottoms, tops, sportswear, outerwear, accessories, and footwear. The company provides denims from brands such as Miss Me, Rock Revival, KanCan, Flying Monkey, and Levi's. The company also incorporates services such as hemming, gift wrapping, layaways, a guest loyalty program, the Buckle private label credit card, personalized stylist services, and an order system that allows stores to obtain specifically requested merchandise from other the company stores or from the company's online order fulfillment center.

Citrix Systems Inc.

Citrix Systems is an enterprise software company. The company markets and licenses its solutions through multiple channels worldwide, including selling through resellers, direct and over the Web. The company's partner community comprises thousands of value-added resellers known as Citrix Solution Advisors, value-added distributors, systems integrators, independent software vendors, original equipment manufacturers and Citrix Service Providers. The company provides solutions and services that it categorizes into three inter-related and complementary areas: Workspace, Networking and Professional Services.

Cognizant Technology Solutions Corporation Class A

Cognizant Technology Solutions is a services company, transforming customers' business, operating and technology models for the digital era. The company's services include digital services and solutions, consulting, application development, systems integration, application testing, application maintenance, infrastructure services and business process services. Additionally, the company develops, licenses, implements and supports proprietary and third-party software products and platforms. The company has organized its services and solutions into four practice areas: Digital Business, Digital Operations, Digital Systems and Technology and Consulting.

CVS Health Corporation

CVS Health is a health company. The company's segments are: Pharmacy Services, which provides a range of pharmacy benefit management solutions, including plan design offerings and administration, formulary management, and retail pharmacy network management services; Retail/Long-Term Care (LTC), which sells prescription drugs and general merchandise, including over-the-counter drugs, provides health care services through its MinuteClinic? walk-in medical clinics and conducts LTC pharmacy operations; and Health Care Benefits, which provides a range of voluntary and consumer-directed health insurance products and related services, including medical, pharmacy, dental and behavioral health plans.

GUIDEWIRE SOFTWARE INC

Guidewire Software provides a technology platform, composed of software, services, and a partner ecosystem, for the property and casualty insurance industry. Guidewire InsurancePlatform? consists of cloud and on-premise applications to support core operations, data management and analytics, and digital engagement and is connected to various data sources and third party applications. The company's operational platforms include: Guidewire InsuranceSuite, which comprises of PolicyCenter, BillingCenter, and ClaimCenter applications; and Guidewire InsuranceNow, which provides policy, billing and claims management functionality to insurers that prefer to subscribe to a cloud-based, all-in-one solution.

Insulet Corporation

Insulet is engaged in the development, manufacturing and sale of its Omnipod? System, an insulin delivery system for people with insulin-dependent diabetes, which consists of two product lines: the Omnipod Insulin Management System and Omnipod DASH? Insulin Management System. The Omnipod System features a self-adhesive disposable tubeless Pod, which is worn on the body and provides up to three days of non-stop insulin delivery without the need to see or handle a needle, and a handheld Personal Diabetes Manager. The Omnipod System communicates wirelessly, provides for automated cannula insertion and eliminates the need for multiple daily injection therapy or the use of pump and tubing.

Intuitive Surgical Inc.

Intuitive Surgical develops, manufactures, and markets the da Vinci? Surgical System and the Ion? endoluminal system. The systems consist of a surgeon console or consoles, a patient-side cart, a vision system, and proprietary instruments and accessories. The company's technology is designed to provide surgeons with a range of motion analogous to the motions of a human wrist, while filtering out the tremors inherent in a surgeon's hands. The company's primary platform for robotic-assisted surgery is its family of da Vinci Surgical Systems. The da Vinci Surgical System allows surgeons to operate while seated at an ergonomic console viewing a three-dimensional image of the surgical field.

Merck & Co. Inc.

Merck & Co. is a global health care company that delivers health solutions through its prescription medicines, vaccines, biologic therapies and animal health products. The company's segments are: Pharmaceutical, which includes human health pharmaceutical products that consist of therapeutic and preventive agents for the treatment of human disorders, and human health vaccine products that consist of preventive pediatric, adolescent and adult vaccines; and Animal Health, which discovers, develops, manufactures and markets veterinary pharmaceuticals, vaccines and health management solutions and services, as well as a suite of digitally connected identification, traceability and monitoring products.

PPG Industries Inc.

PPG Industries manufactures and distributes a range of paints, coatings and specialty materials. The company's business is comprised of two reportable business segments: Performance Coatings, which primarily supplies a variety of protective and decorative coatings, sealants and finishes along with paint strippers, stains and related chemicals, as well as transparencies and transparent armor; and Industrial Coatings, which primarily supplies a variety of protective and decorative coatings and finishes along with adhesives, sealants, metal pretreatment products, optical monomers and coatings, precipitated silicas and other specialty materials.

PPL Corporation

PPL is a utility holding company. Through its regulated utility subsidiaries, the company delivers electricity to customers in United Kingdom, Pennsylvania, Kentucky, and Virginia; delivers natural gas to customers in Kentucky; and generates electricity from power plants in Kentucky. The company's segments are: United Kingdom Regulated, which has regulated electricity distribution operations in United Kingdom; Kentucky Regulated, which is engaged in the regulated generation, transmission, distribution and sale of electricity in Kentucky and Virginia, and the distribution and sale of natural gas in Kentucky; and Pennsylvania Regulated, which delivers electricity in eastern and central Pennsylvania.

Realty Income Corporation

Realty Income is a real estate investment trust. The company invests in commercial real estate. The company owns a portfolio of properties located in various states, Puerto Rico and United Kingdom.

Tapestry Inc.

Tapestry is a lifestyle company. The company's primary product offerings, manufactured by third-party suppliers, include women's and men's bags, small leather goods, footwear, ready-to-wear including outerwear, watches, weekend and travel accessories, scarves, eyewear, fragrance, jewelry and other lifestyle products. The company has three reportable segments: Coach, which includes sales of Coach brand products to customers through Coach operated stores; Kate Spade, which includes sales primarily of Kate Spade New York brand products to customers through Kate Spade operated stores; and Stuart Weitzman, which includes sales of Stuart Weitzman brand products primarily through Stuart Weitzman operated stores.

Trimble Inc.

Trimble is a provider of technology solutions. The company's solutions are used across a range of industries including agriculture, architecture, civil engineering, survey and land administration, construction, geospatial, government, natural resources, transportation, and utilities. The company has four reporting segments: Buildings and Infrastructure, which serves architects, engineers, contractors, owners, and operators; Geospatial, which serves customers working in surveying, engineering, and government; Resources and Utilities, which primarily serves customers working in agriculture, forestry, and utilities; and Transportation, which focuses on the transportation and logistics market.

Ventas Inc.

Ventas is a real estate investment trust with a portfolio of seniors housing, research and innovation, and healthcare properties located throughout the United States, Canada and the United Kingdom. The company has three segments: triple-net leased properties, which invests in and owns seniors housing and healthcare properties and leases those properties to healthcare operating companies under triple-net or absolute-net leases; senior living operations, which invests in seniors housing communities and engages independent operators to manage those communities; and office operations, which acquires, owns, develops, leases and manages medical office buildings and research and innovation centers.

ZIMMER BIOMET HOLDINGS INC.

Zimmer Biomet Holdings is engaged in musculoskeletal healthcare. The company's products are: Knees, which includes knee replacement surgeries; Hips, which includes hip replacement surgeries; S.E.T., which includes surgical, sports medicine, biologics, foot and ankle, extremities and trauma products; Spine and Craniomaxillofacial and Thoracic, which designs, manufactures and distributes medical devices and surgical instruments, as well as provides face and skull reconstruction products; Dental, which manufactures and/or distributes dental reconstructive implants, dental prosthetic products and dental regenerative products; and Other, which includes bone cement and office based technology products.

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