Valens Equity Insights and Inflections - 2020 12 29
Current market expectations for CVS are excessively pessimistic. Markets expect UAFRS-based (Uniform) ROA (ROA') to roll over to prior lows from 2010-2011.However, the company's fundamental strategy is likely to lead to continued ROA' expansion. CVS has been evolving into a full-service healthcare firm since their acquisition of Caremark in 2007, which led to initial ROA' expansion to 15%-17% levels. This was followed by continued investment in healthcare solutions and monetizing their data on customers leading to an ROA' plateau shift the past three years, to 19%+ levels.
With the new acquisition of Aetna to add to this structure, the company is now positioned to recreate the exact fundamental framework that UnitedHealthcare has created over the past 10+ years that has led to a 1,500bps+ expansion in ROA'. With the market not giving the company credit for this strategy, there seems to be opportunities for significant equity upside.
Management alignment and confidence in recent calls point to reasons to believe in further operational improvement. Management is specifically compensated to focus on RONA and EBITDA expansion, meaning they will be driving ROA' expansion while growing, not seeing declines, as is currently expected.
Also, management has consistently shown a lack of concern about hitting on synergy targets or executing on the Aetna acquisition, and has showed confidence about continued execution, even through the pandemic. In fact, they are showing sustained confidence in their outlook for the company's fundamentals, their digital strategy, and around synergy trends.
Considering low market expectations, in terms of pessimism for both growth and Uniform ROA recovery, positive tailwinds and management's alignment and strategy, and growing confidence about executing on their strategy for the business, current low equity valuations appear unreasonable, spelling potential for equity upside.
MTCH Q4 2020 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Although management may have concerns about home demand, unsold homes, and the strength of their position, market expectations are overly bearish, suggesting equity upside remains warranted
WTRH Q3 2020 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for a positive inflection in Uniform ROA, but management may be concerned about revenues, pricing, and dine-in
PLD Q3 2020 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to reach all-time highs, but management may have concerns about inventory, growth, and demand
AMN, BHC, FOXA, FTDR, LMT, MSFT, PINC, SEDG, SWK, SWKS, UIS, WYND
AMN Healthcare Services provides talent solutions for the healthcare sector. The company's talent solutions provides management, staffing, recruitment, technology, analytics, and related services to manage healthcare workforce needs. The company provides its healthcare personnel, from nurses, doctors, and allied health personnel to healthcare leaders and executives. The company's workforce solutions and staffing services include: travel nurse staffing; rapid response nurse staffing and labor disruption services; local, or per diem, staffing; locum tenens staffing; allied staffing; physician permanent placement services; interim leadership staffing and executive search services; and recruitment process outsourcing.
Valeant Pharmaceuticals International is a pharmaceutical and medical device company that develops, manufactures, and markets a range of branded, generic and branded generic pharmaceuticals, over-the-counter (OTC) products, and medical devices (contact lenses, intraocular lenses, ophthalmic surgical equipment, and aesthetics devices). Co. has two operating and reportable segments: Developed Markets, which focuses in dermatology, neurology, gastrointestinal disorders, and eye health therapeutic; and Emerging Markets, which focuses primarily on branded generics, OTC products, and medical devices.
Fox is a news, sports and entertainment company. The company has three segments: Cable Network Programming, which consists of the production and licensing of news and sports content distributed primarily through cable television systems, direct broadcast satellite operators and telecommunication companies and online multi-channel video programming distributors; Television, which consists of the acquisition, marketing and distribution of broadcast network programming nationally under the FOX brand and the operation of several broadcast television stations; and Other, Corporate and Eliminations, which consists of corporate overhead costs, intracompany eliminations and the FOX Studios lot.
Frontdoor is a provider of home service plans in the U.S., and operates under the American Home Shield, HSA, OneGuard and Landmark brands. The company's home service plans help customers protect and maintain their homes, typically their asset, from costly and unplanned breakdowns of essential home systems and appliances. The company's home service plans cover the repair or replacement of main components of household systems and appliances, including electrical, plumbing, central heating, ventilation and air conditioning systems, water heaters, refrigerators, dishwashers and ranges/ovens/cooktops. The company serves customers across various states and the District of Columbia.
Lockheed Martin is a security and aerospace company. The company has four segments: Aeronautics, which is engaged in the research, design, development, manufacture, integration, sustainment, support and upgrade of military aircraft; Missiles and Fire Control, which provides air and missile defense systems, logistics, fire control systems, and mission operations support; Rotary and Mission Systems, which provides design, manufacture, service and support for military and commercial helicopters, radar systems, and simulation and training services; Space, which researches, designs, develops, engineers and produces satellites, space transportation systems, and strategic, strike, and defensive systems.
Microsoft is a technology company. The company develops and supports software, services, devices, and solutions. The company provides an array of services, including cloud-based solutions as well as solution support and consulting services. The company also delivers relevant online advertising. The company's products include operating systems; cross-device productivity applications; server applications; business solution applications; desktop and server management tools; software development tools; and video games. The company also designs, manufactures, and sells devices, including personal computers, tablets, gaming and entertainment consoles, other devices, and related accessories.
Premier is a holding company. The company, together with its subsidiaries and affiliates, is a healthcare performance improvement company. The company provides technology-enabled platform that provides supply chain services, clinical, financial, operational and value based care software-as-a-service informatics products, consulting services and performance improvement collaborative programs. The company has two business segments: Supply Chain Services, which assists its members in managing their non-labor expense and capital spend through a combination of products, services and technologies; and Performance Services, which provides information technology analytics and workflow automation and consulting services.
Prologis is a self-administered and self-managed real estate investment trust and is the sole general partner of Prologis, L.P. The company owns, manages and develops logistics facilities, with a focus on the consumption side of the global supply chain. Most of the company's properties in the United States are wholly owned, while its properties outside the United States are primarily held in co-investment ventures. The company has two segments: Real Estate Operations, which represents the ownership and development of operating properties, and includes land held for development and properties under development; and Strategic Capital, which represents the management of unconsolidated co-investment ventures.
Skyworks Solutions is a provider of analog semiconductors that connect people, places, and things, spanning a number of applications within the aerospace, automotive, broadband, cellular infrastructure, connected home, industrial, medical, military, smartphone, tablet and wearable markets. The company's product portfolio consists of various solutions, including: amplifiers, antenna tuners, attenuators, circulators/isolators, wireless analog system on chip, direct current (DC)/DC converters, demodulators, detectors, diodes, directional couplers, diversity receive modules, filters, front-end modules, hybrid, light emitting diode drivers, low noise amplifiers, mixers, and modulators.
SolarEdge Technologies designs, develops, and sells an intelligent inverter solution designed for power generation at the individual photovoltaic module level. The company's products consist mainly of power optimizers designed to maximize energy throughput from each and every module via constant tracking of Maximum Power Point individually per module; inverters, which invert direct current from the PV module to alternating current; a related cloud-based monitoring platform; and a storage solution that is used to increase energy independence and maximize self-consumption for homeowners by utilizing a battery that is sold separately by third party manufacturers, to store and supply power as needed.
Stanley Black & Decker is a provider of hand tools, power tools and related accessories, engineered fastening systems and products, services and equipment for oil and gas and infrastructure applications, commercial electronic security and monitoring systems, healthcare solutions, and automatic doors. The company's segments include: Tools and Storage, which is comprised of the power tools and equipment and hand tools, accessories and storage businesses; Industrial, which is comprised of the engineered fastening and infrastructure businesses; and Security, which is comprised of the convergent security solutions and the mechanical access solutions businesses.
Wyndham Destinations is a vacation ownership and exchange company. The company provides everyday travelers the opportunity to own, exchange or rent their vacation experience. The company's operations are grouped into two segments: Vacation Ownership, which is a timeshare business with resorts and owners that develops and markets vacation ownership interests (VOIs) to individual consumers, provide consumer financing in connection with the sale of VOIs, and provides property management services at resorts; and Vacation Exchange, which operates the vacation exchange network with members, and has relationships with vacation ownership resorts located in various countries and territories.
Unisys is an information technology company. The company's Services segment provides cloud and infrastructure services, application services and business process outsourcing services. In cloud and infrastructure services, the company assists clients to apply cloud and as-a-service delivery models. In application services, the company develops and manages applications for select industries and provides data analytics. In business process outsourcing services, the company assumes management of processes and functions for clients in target industries. The company's Technology segment designs and develops software and provides hardware and other related products including Unisys ClearPath Forward? and Unisys Stealth?.
Waitr Holdings operates an online food ordering and delivery platform that enables consumers to discover and order meals from local restaurants, powered by the company's team of delivery drivers. The company facilitates ordering of food and beverages by diners from restaurants for takeout and delivery through the Waitr Platform and also the Bite Squad Platform. The company markets its proprietary application and digital platforms to restaurants and diners mainly across small and medium sized markets. For diners, the company optimizes the journey from restaurant and food discovery through delivery, while providing restaurant selection.
In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:
- GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
- Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
- Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
- Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available
We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.
- Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
- Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
- Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
- The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming
The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.
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