Report
Valens Research

ANTM - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2021 11 19

Anthem, Inc. (ANTM) currently trades below corporate yet above historical averages relative to Uniform earnings, with a 17.6x Uniform P/E (Fwd. V/E').

At these levels, markets are pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to fade to 16%, accompanied by 5% Uniform asset growth.

Meanwhile, analysts expect Uniform ROA to remain near current levels of 20%-21% through 2022, accompanied by 8% Uniform asset growth.

If sustained going forward, these levels would imply a stock price closer to $659, representing significant potential equity upside for the firm.

However, the firm's most recent earnings call suggests management may have concerns about costs, Medicare Advantage, and digital investments.
Underlying
Anthem Inc.

Anthem is an insurance holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a health benefits company, serving medical members through its affiliated health plans. The company has three segments: Commercial & Specialty Business, which provides fully-insured health products, managed care services to self-funded customers, and other insurance products and services; Government Business, which includes Medicare and Medicaid businesses, its subsidiary, National Government Services, and services provided to the federal government in connection with its Federal Health Products and Services business; and Other, which includes pharmacy benefits management business and integrated health services business.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

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