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Valens Research

Valens Equity Insights and Inflections - 2019 07 24

CCL currently trades below recent averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) Earnings, with a 15.5x Uniform P/E. At these levels, the market is pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to regress from 10% in 2018 to 6% in 2023, accompanied by 2% Uniform Asset growth going forward. Analysts have similar expectations, projecting Uniform ROA to fall to 8% through 2020, accompanied by 7% Uniform Asset growth. That said, management is confident about earnings targets, asset utilization, and their ability to accelerate demand. Should CCL see profitability improve or remain flat, as positive management sentiment would suggest, upside would be warranted.

ADBE Q2 2019 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for record Uniform ROA expansion, but management has concerns about margins, revenues, and their Adobe Experience Platform.

JNPR Q1 2019 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for sustained low Uniform ROA, and management appears concerned about sales growth, their Cloud business, and the competitive landscape.

UGI Q2 2019 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Markets have muted expectations for UGI, but management isconfident about their operating performance, capital return strategy, and their AmeriGas acquisition.

ABT, ADBE, ADP, ALLE, AOS, CCL, CF, DBX, JNPR, KMB, LLY, MKTX, MLM, NLSN, SBUX, SYK, UBER, UGI, VAR, VNO.
Underlyings
A. O. Smith Corporation

A.O. Smith is comprised of North America and Rest of World reporting segments. The company's Rest of World segment is primarily comprised of China, Europe and India. Both segments manufacture and market lines of residential and commercial gas and electric water heaters, boilers, tanks and water treatment products. Both segments primarily manufacture and market in their respective regions of the world. The company's Rest of World segment also manufactures and markets in-home air purification products in China. The company serves residential and commercial end markets in North America with a range of products including water heaters, boilers, water treatment products, and other.

Abbott Laboratories

Abbott Laboratories is engaged in the discovery, development, manufacture, and sale of a range of health care products. The company's reportable segments are: established pharmaceutical products, which includes a range of generic pharmaceuticals; diagnostic products, which includes a range of diagnostic systems and tests; nutritional products, which includes a range of pediatric and adult nutritional products; and medical devices, which includes a range of rhythm management, electrophysiology, heart failure, vascular and structural heart devices for the treatment of cardiovascular diseases, and diabetes care products for people with diabetes, as well as neuromodulation devices.

Adobe Inc.

Adobe is a software company. The company provides a line of products and services used for creating, managing, delivering, measuring, optimizing, engaging and transacting with content across personal computers, devices and media. The company's segments are: Digital Media, which provides products, services and solutions that enable individuals, teams and enterprises to create, publish and promote their content; Digital Experience, which provides a platform and set of applications and services through Adobe Experience Cloud; and Publishing, which contains products and services that address market opportunities including eLearning solutions, web conferencing, web application development and printing.

Allegion PLC

Automatic Data Processing Inc.

Automatic Data Processing is a provider of cloud-based human capital management (HCM) solutions to employers, providing solutions to businesses of various sizes. The company's two reportable business segments are Employer Services, which provides a range of technology-based HCM solutions, including payroll services, benefits administration, talent management, HR management, workforce management, compliance services, insurance services and retirement services; and Professional Employer Organization, which provides clients with employment administration outsourcing solutions through a relationship in which employees who work for a client are co-employed by the company and the client.

Carnival Corporation

CF Industries Holdings Inc.

CF Industries Holdings is a global fertilizer and chemical company. The company's principal nitrogen fertilizer products are anhydrous ammonia, granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate solution and ammonium nitrate. The company's other nitrogen products include diesel exhaust fluid, urea liquor, nitric acid and aqua ammonia, which are sold primarily to its industrial customers, and compound fertilizer products, which are solid granular fertilizer products for which the nutrient content is a combination of nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium. The company serves its customers in North America through its production, storage, transportation and distribution network.

Dropbox Inc. Class A

Dropbox is a global collaboration platform that centralizes the flow of information between the products and services its users prefer. Dropbox allows individuals, teams, and organizations to collaborate. Anyone can sign up for free via the company's website or app, and upgrade to a paid subscription plan for additional features. Dropbox is a digital workspace where individuals and teams can create content, access it from anywhere, and share it with collaborators. The company also utilizes Amazon Web Services (AWS), for the remainder of its users' storage needs and to help deliver its services. These AWS datacenters are in the United States and Europe, which allows the company to localize where content is stored.

Eli Lilly and Company

Eli Lilly and Company discovers, develops, manufactures, and markets products in a single business segment: human pharmaceutical products. The company's human pharmaceutical products include: diabetes and other endocrinology products, immunology products, neuroscience products, oncology products, and other products. The company's diabetes and other endocrinology products include: Baqsimi? and Basaglar?. The company's immunology products include: Olumiant? and Taltz?. The company's neuroscience products include: Cymbalta? and Emgality?. The company's oncology products include: Alimta?, Cyramza?, Erbitux? and Verzenio?. The company's other products include: Cialis?.

Juniper Networks Inc.

Juniper Networks designs, develops and sells products and services for networks. The company sells its products in three geographic regions: Americas; Europe, Middle East, and Africa; and Asia Pacific. The company sells its network products and service offerings across routing, switching, and security technologies. In addition, the company provides its customers services, including maintenance and support, services, and education and training programs. The company's products and services address network requirements for its customers within its vertical: Cloud, Service Provider, and Enterprise. The company's portfolio addresses domains in the network: core; edge; access and aggregation; data centers; and campus and branch.

Kimberly-Clark Corporation

Kimberly-Clark is principally engaged in the manufacturing and marketing of a range of products primarily made from natural or synthetic fibers using technologies in fibers, nonwovens and absorbency. The company is organized into three operating segments: Personal Care, which provides solutions and products such as disposable diapers, training and youth pants, swimpants, baby wipes, feminine and incontinence care products, and other related products; Consumer Tissue, which provides facial and bathroom tissue, paper towels, napkins and related products; and K-C Professional, which provides a range of solutions and supporting products such as wipers, tissue, towels, apparel, soaps and sanitizers.

MarketAxess Holdings Inc.

MarketAxess Holdings operates an electronic trading platform that enables fixed-income market participants to trade corporate bonds and other types of fixed-income instruments using its patented technology. Through its Open Trading? protocols, the company executes trades in certain bond between and among institutional investor and broker-dealer clients. The company also provides trading-related products and services, including: Composite+ pricing and other market data products to assist clients with trading decisions; auto-execution and other execution services for clients requiring specialized workflow solutions; connectivity solutions that facilitate straight-through processing; and technology services.

Martin Marietta Materials Inc.

Martin Marietta Materials is a natural resource-based building materials company. The company supplies aggregates (crushed stone, sand and gravel) through its network of quarries, mines and distribution yards. The company also provides cement and downstream products, namely, ready mixed concrete, asphalt and paving services. The company conducts its Building Materials business through three segments: Mid-America Group, Southeast Group and West Group. The Mid-America and Southeast Groups provide aggregates products only. The West Group provides aggregates, cement and downstream products. The company also has the Magnesia Specialties segment, which includes its magnesia-based chemicals and dolomitic lime businesses.

Nielsen Holdings Plc

Starbucks Corporation

Starbucks is a roaster, marketer and retailer of coffee. The company's segments are: Americas, which is inclusive of the United States, Canada, and Latin America; International, which is inclusive of China, Japan, Asia Pacific, Europe, Middle East, and Africa; and Channel Development. The company's Americas and International segments include both company-operated and licensed stores. The company's Channel Development segment includes roasted whole bean and ground coffees, Seattle's Best Coffee?, Starbucks- and Teavana-branded single-serve products, a variety of ready-to-drink beverages, and other products sold worldwide outside of the company's company-operated and licensed stores.

STRYKER CORPORATION

Stryker is a medical technology company. The company provides products and services in orthopaedics, medical and surgical, and neurotechnology and spine. The company's Orthopaedics products consist of implants used in hip and knee joint replacements and trauma and extremities surgeries. The company's MedSurg products include surgical equipment and navigation systems, endoscopic and communications systems, patient handling, emergency medical equipment and intensive care disposable products, reprocessed and remanufactured medical devices and other medical device products used in a range of medical specialties. The company's Neurotechnology and Spine products include neurosurgical, neurovascular, and spinal implant devices.

Uber Technologies Inc.

Uber Technologies provides ride hailing services. The company develops application for road transportation, navigation, ride sharing, and payment processing solutions. The company serves customers in the United States and Canada, Latin America, Europe, Middle East, and Asia Pacific markets, excluding its discontinued China operations.

UGI Corporation

UGI is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries and affiliates, the company distributes, stores, transports and markets energy products and related services. The company's segments are: AmeriGas Propane, which distributes propane and sells, installs, and services propane appliances, including heating systems; UGI International, which includes liquefied petroleum gas distribution businesses and energy marketing business; Midstream and Marketing, which includes energy-related businesses that conduct energy marketing in the Mid-Atlantic region of the United States; and UGI Utilities, which consists of the regulated natural gas distribution businesses and the regulated electric distribution business.

VARIAN MEDICAL SYSTEMS INC

Varian Medical Systems is a manufacturer of medical devices and software for treating cancer and other medical conditions. The company's segments are: Oncology Systems, which designs, manufactures, sells and services hardware and software products for treating cancer with radiotherapy, and treatments such as fixed field intensity-modulated radiation therapy, image-guided radiation therapy, volumetric modulated arc therapy, stereotactic radiosurgery, stereotactic body radiotherapy and brachytherapy, as well as associated equipment; and Proton Solutions, which develops, designs, manufactures, sells and services products and systems for delivering proton therapy, for the treatment of cancer.

Vornado Realty Trust

Vornado Realty Trust is a real estate investment trust and conducts its business through, and substantially all of its interests in properties are held by, Vornado Realty L.P. (the Operating Partnership). The company is the sole general partner of the Operating Partnership. The company owns and operates office and retail properties with a concentration in the New York City metropolitan area. In addition, the company has interest in Alexander's, Inc., which owns properties in the New York metropolitan area, as well as interests in other real estate and related investments.

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Valens Research

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  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
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Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

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