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Valens Research

Valens Equity Insights and Inflections - 2021 12 07

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) is one of the best-positioned copper miners to benefit from
the various megatrends pushing copper demand higher. Uniform Accounting highlights
that the market is significantly mispricing the value of Freeport's production capabilities,
signaling the potential for equity upside.

With trends like the IoT and EVs driving stronger demand for precious metals, copper
producers like Freeport are well positioned for a boost in profitability. Additionally, Freeport has the potential to continue growing its production volume in the coming years without spending on expensive exploration projects, and its international operations are well protected from the downside. All of these factors point to the company being able to
grow and expand Uniform ROA faster than the market expects.

Freeport's management is closely aligned to focus on maximizing cash flow generation from its existing assets, efficient growth, downside protection, and stock performance.

While the Q3 earnings call highlighted certain short-term headwinds, there were, crucially,
no negative markers about the long-term prospects of the copper business.

KMI Q3 2021 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to rebound, but management may be concerned about production volumes and their operational initiatives

IQV Q3 2021 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to recover, and management may have concerns about demand, growth, pricing, and free cash flow

AOS Q3 2021 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA expansion, but management may have concerns about input costs, China, and supply chain disruptions

FCX, AOS, IQV, KMI, ASGN, COMM, GM, INTC, LRCX, MPW, SLB, SPGI, SSNC, T, TSLA
Underlyings
A. O. Smith Corporation

A.O. Smith is comprised of North America and Rest of World reporting segments. The company's Rest of World segment is primarily comprised of China, Europe and India. Both segments manufacture and market lines of residential and commercial gas and electric water heaters, boilers, tanks and water treatment products. Both segments primarily manufacture and market in their respective regions of the world. The company's Rest of World segment also manufactures and markets in-home air purification products in China. The company serves residential and commercial end markets in North America with a range of products including water heaters, boilers, water treatment products, and other.

ASGN Inc

ASGN provides information technology (IT) and other services in the technology, digital, creative, engineering and life sciences fields across commercial and government sectors. The company's segments are: Apex, which provides technical, digital, creative, scientific and engineering personnel for contract, contract-to-hire, and permanent placement positions to clients across the United States and Canada; Oxford, which provides staffing and permanent placement services in select skill and geographic markets in the United States and Europe; and ECS, which delivers solutions in cloud, cybersecurity, artificial intelligence, machine learning, application and IT modernization, science and engineering.

AT&T Inc.

AT&T is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a provider of telecommunications, media and technology services. The company's Communications segment provides wireless and wireline telecom, video and broadband services. The company's WarnerMedia segment includes media and entertainment businesses that principally develop, produce and distribute feature films, television content, and other content globally; and operate digital media properties. The company's Latin America segment provides entertainment services in Latin America and wireless services in Mexico. The company's XANDR segment relies on using data from its customer relationships, to develop digital and video advertising that is relevant to consumers.

CommScope Holding Co. Inc.

CommScope Holding is a provider of infrastructure solutions for communication networks. The company's solutions and services for wired and wireless networks enable high-bandwidth data, video and voice applications. The company's operating segments are: CommScope Connectivity Solutions (CCS) and CommScope Mobility Solutions (CMS). The CCS segment is engaged in providing fiber optic and copper connectivity solutions for use in data centers and business enterprise, telecommunications, cable television and residential broadband networks. The CMS segment is engaged in providing infrastructure for wireless networks.

Freeport-McMoRan Inc.

Freeport-McMoRan is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a mining company. The company operates assets with proven and probable reserves of copper, gold and molybdenum, and the company is a publicly traded copper producer. The company's portfolio of assets includes the Grasberg minerals district in Indonesia, copper and gold deposits; and mining operations in North America and South America, including the Morenci minerals district in Arizona and the Cerro Verde operation in Peru. The company has organized its mining operations into four primary divisions: North America copper mines, South America mining, Indonesia mining and Molybdenum mines.

General Motors Company

General Motors designs, builds and sells trucks, crossovers, cars and automobile parts. The company also provides automotive financing services through its subsidiary, General Motors Financial Company, Inc. (GM Financial). GM Financial provides retail loan and lease lending across the credit spectrum. GM Financial provides commercial lending products to dealers including new and used vehicle inventory floorplan financing and dealer loans, which are loans to finance improvements to dealership facilities, to provide working capital, and to purchase and/or finance dealership real estate. Other commercial lending products include financing for parts and accessories, dealer fleets and storage centers.

Intel Corporation

Intel is a data-centric company. The company's operating segments are: Data Center Group, which develops platforms for compute, storage, and network functions; Internet of Things Group, which facilitates its customers creating, storing, and processing data; Mobileye, which provides assistance and automation solutions; Non-Volatile Memory Solutions Group, which provides memory and storage products based on Intel? Optane? technology and Intel? 3D NAND technology; Programmable Solutions Group, which provides programmable semiconductors; and Client Computing Group, which connects people to data, allowing each person to focus, create, and engage in ways that unlock their individual potential.

IQVIA Holdings Inc

IQVIA Holdings is a provider of analytics, technology solutions and contract research services to the life sciences industry. The company's reportable segments are: Technology and Analytics Solutions, which provides information, technology solutions and real world solutions and services to life science clients; Research and Development Solutions, which primarily serves biopharmaceutical clients, is engaged in research and development and provides clinical research and clinical trial services; and Contract Sales and Medical Solutions, which provides contract sales to both biopharmaceutical clients and the healthcare market.

Kinder Morgan Inc Class P

Kinder Morgan is an energy infrastructure company. The company's segments are: Natural Gas Pipelines, which includes the ownership and operation of, among others, main interstate and intrastate natural gas pipeline and storage systems; Products Pipelines, which includes the refined petroleum products, crude oil and condensate pipelines; Terminals, which includes the ownership and/or operation of, among others, liquids and bulk terminal facilities; and carbon dioxide (CO2), which includes the production, transportation and marketing of CO2, ownership interests in and/or operation of oil fields and gasoline processing plants in West Texas.

Lam Research Corporation

Lam Research is a supplier of wafer fabrication equipment and services to the semiconductor industry. The company designs, manufactures, markets, refurbishes, and services semiconductor processing equipment used in the fabrication of integrated circuits. The company's customer base includes semiconductor memory, foundry, and integrated device manufacturers that make products such as non-volatile memory, dynamic random-access memory, and logic devices. The company's services include customer service, spares, improvement, and refurbishment of its deposition, etch, and clean products. The company sells its products and services to companies in the United States, China, Europe, Japan, Korea, Southeast Asia, and Taiwan.

Medical Properties Trust Inc.

Medical Properties Trust is a self-advised real estate investment trust. The company invests in: General acute care, which provides inpatient care for the treatment of acute conditions and manifestations of chronic conditions; Inpatient rehabilitation hospitals, which provides rehabilitation to patients with various neurological, musculoskeletal orthopedic, and other medical conditions following stabilization of their acute medical issues; and long-term acute care hospitals, a specialty-care hospital designed for patients with serious medical problems that require intense, special treatment for an extended period of time, sometimes requiring a hospital stay averaging in excess of three weeks.

S&P Global Inc.

S&P Global is a provider of transparent and independent ratings, benchmarks, analytics and data to the capital and commodity markets worldwide. The company's segments include: S&P Global Ratings, which provides credit ratings, research and analytics; S&P Global Market Intelligence, which provides multi-asset-class data, research and analytical capabilities that integrate cross-asset analytics and desktop services; S&P Global Platts, which provides information and benchmark prices for the commodity and energy markets; and S&P Dow Jones Indices, which provides a variety of valuation and index benchmarks for investment advisors, wealth managers and institutional investors.

Schlumberger NV

Schlumberger provides technology for reservoir characterization, drilling, production and processing to the oil and gas industry. The company has four segments: Reservoir Characterization, which consists of the principal technologies involved in finding and defining hydrocarbon resources; Drilling, which consists of the principal technologies involved in the drilling and positioning of oil and gas wells; Production, which consists of the principal technologies involved in the lifetime production of oil and gas reservoirs; and Cameron, which consists of the principal technologies involved in pressure and flow control for drilling and intervention rigs, oil and gas wells and production facilities.

SS&C Technologies Holdings Inc.

SS&C Technologies Holdings is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a provider of software products and software-enabled services that allow financial services providers to automate business processes and manage their information processing requirements. The company provides its solutions to clients principally within the institutional asset and wealth management, alternative investment management, financial advisory and financial institutions vertical markets. In addition, the company's clients include commercial lenders, real estate investment trusts, corporate treasury groups, insurance and pension funds, municipal finance groups and real estate property managers.

Tesla Inc

Tesla designs, develops, manufactures, sells and leases electric vehicles and energy generation and storage systems, and provides services related to its products. The company operates as two reportable segments: automotive, which includes the design, development, manufacturing, sales, and leasing of electric vehicles as well as sales of automotive regulatory credits; and energy generation and storage, which includes the design, manufacture, installation, sales, and leasing of solar energy generation and energy storage products, services related to such products, and sales of solar energy system incentives.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

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Valens Research

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