Report
Valens Research

ARMK - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2021 12 22

Aramark (ARMK) currently trades above corporate and near historical averages relative to Uniform earnings, with a 26.3x Uniform P/E (Fwd. V/E').

At these levels, markets are pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to expand to 12%, accompanied by 7% Uniform asset growth.

Given the firm's ability to leverage its scale to take share from competitors, there is fundamental potential for stronger-than-priced-in performance.

If the company can capitalize on its positioning, it could drive Uniform ROA to 20% with 3% Uniform asset growth going forward, which would imply a stock price closer to $70, representing significant equity upside for the firm.

Moreover, the firm's most recent earnings call suggests management is confident about their COVID recovery.
Underlying
Aramark

Aramark is a provider of food, facilities and uniform services. The company manages its Food and Support Services (FSS) business in segments split between its United States and International operations. The company's FSS segments manage a number of interrelated services-including food, hospitality, procurement and facility services-for school districts, colleges and universities, healthcare facilities, businesses, sports, entertainment and recreational venues, conference and convention centers, national and state parks and correctional institutions. The company's Uniform and Career Apparel segment provides employee uniform solution, including design, sourcing and manufacturing, delivery, cleaning and maintenance.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

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Valens Research

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