Report
Valens Research

ADM - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2018 07 18

Archer-Daniels-Midland Company currently trades near historical averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) Earnings, with a 23.7x Uniform P/E. The market has bullish expectations for the firm. However, management has concerns about the global trade climate and market factors

Specifically, while market is confident about production volumes, mark-to-market tailwinds, and their Chinese JV, management may be concerned about trade developments between the United States and its partners. Furthermore, management appears to lack confidence in market conditions, and the effects of supply and demand on margins. Finally, management seems to lack confidence in their oilseed portion of their business
Underlying
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company

Archer Daniels Midland is a human and animal nutrition and an agricultural origination and processing company. The company has three segments: Ag Services and Oilseeds, which includes activities related to the origination, merchandising, transportation, and storage of agricultural raw materials, and the crushing and further processing of oilseeds such as soybeans and soft seeds into vegetable oils and protein meals; Carbohydrate Solutions, which is engaged in corn and wheat wet and dry milling and other activities; and Nutrition, which engages in the manufacturing, sale, and distribution of an array of products including plant-based proteins, natural flavor ingredients, and flavor systems.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
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We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

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