ADSK - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2021 02 18
Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK:USA) currently trades above historical averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) earnings, with a 56.6x Uniform P/E. At these levels, the market has bullish expectations for the firm, but management may have concerns about free cash flow guidance, their new subscription model, and Construction Cloud's capabilitiesSpecifically, management may lack confidence in their ability to sustain multiyear customer payment growth and meet their 2023 free cash flow and Q4 operating margin guidance. Moreover, they may be exaggerating their Construction Cloud platform's capabilities and the technology benefits of the Spacemaker acquisition. Additionally, management may lack confidence in their ability to provide value to customers in a similar way to other SaaS providers and convert more maintenance plan customers to subscriptions. They may also have concerns about the pace of their customer end-markets' recovery and changes in their sales mix. Finally, management may be exaggerating their ability to leverage Fusion 360 for further adoption of the platform and win contracts without meeting customers face-to-face
Autodesk is a design software and services company. The company is engaged in 3D design, engineering and entertainment software and services. The company's product offerings include: AutoCAD, which is a customizable and extensible CAD application for design, drafting, detailing, and visualization; AutoCAD Civil 3D, which provides surveying, design, analysis, and documentation solution for civil engineering; CAM Solutions, which is a computer-aided manufacturing software that provides solutions for computer numeric control machining, inspection, and modeling for manufacturing; and Inventor, which provides tools for 3D mechanical design, simulation, analysis, tooling, visualization, and documentation.
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