Report
Valens Research

Valens Equity Insights and Inflections - 2018 10 03

CNX currently trades near historical lows relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) Assets, with a 0.8x Uniform P/B. At these levels, the market is pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to only improve from 3% in 2017 to 5% in 2022, accompanied by 4% Uniform Asset shrinkage. Analysts have similarly bearish expectations, projecting Uniform ROA to fall to 2% levels through 2019, accompanied by 5% Uniform Asset growth.

That said, management's confidence in the development of the Richhill well, and turning their fourth rig online, suggest market expectations are far too bearish, indicating upside is likely justified.

ECA:CAN Q2 2018 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for improving Uniform ROA, but management has concerns about cash flows, production, and capital allocation

CSX Q2 2018 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for record-high Uniform ROA, and management is optimistic about their operations, top-line growth outlook, and real estate monetization

RTN Q2 2108 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to remain stable at recent highs, but management has concerns about guidance and domestic bookings levels


BNS:CAN, CRM, DHR, EOG, GPOR, MRO, RDSA:NLD, SM, VOW3:DEU
Underlyings
Bank of Nova Scotia

Scotiabank is a financial services provider in North America, Latin America, the Caribbean and Central America, and parts of Asia. Through its three operating segments: Canadian Banking, International Banking, and Global Banking and Markets, Co. provides a range of advice, products and services, including personal and commercial banking, wealth management and private banking, corporate and investment banking, and capital markets. As of Oct 31 2017, Co. had total assets of C$915,273 million and total deposits of C$625,367 million.

CNX Resources Corporation

CNX Resources is an independent oil and gas company focused on the exploration, development, production, gathering, processing and acquisition of natural gas properties primarily in the Appalachian Basin. The company's operations are centered on unconventional shale formations, primarily the Marcellus Shale and Utica Shale. The company operates, develops and explores for natural gas in Appalachia (Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Ohio, and Virginia).

CSX Corporation

CSX provides rail-based freight transportation services. The company's principal operating subsidiary, CSX Transportation, Inc., provides a link to the transportation supply chain through its rail network, which serves centers in states east of the Mississippi River, the District of Columbia and the Canadian provinces of Ontario and Quebec. The company's CSX Intermodal Terminals, Inc. subsidiary owns and operates a system of intermodal terminals, primarily in the eastern United States and also performs drayage services (the pickup and delivery of intermodal shipments). The company's Total Distribution Services, Inc. subsidiary serves the automotive industry with distribution centers and storage locations.

DANAHER CORPORATION

Danaher designs, manufactures and markets medical, industrial and commercial products and services. The company's segments include: Life Sciences, which provides research tools to study genes, proteins, metabolites and cells, in order to understand the causes of disease, identify therapies and test drugs and vaccines; Diagnostics, which provides analytical instruments, reagents, consumables, software and services that hospitals, physicians' offices, reference laboratories and other critical care settings use to diagnose disease and make treatment decisions; and Environmental and Applied Solutions, which provides products and services to protect resources and global food and water supplies.

EOG Resources Inc.

EOG Resources, together with its subsidiaries, explores for, develops, produces and markets crude oil, natural gas liquids and natural gas primarily in main producing basins in the United States, The Republic of Trinidad and Tobago, The People's Republic of China, Canada and, from time to time, select other international areas.

Gulfport Energy Corporation

Gulfport Energy is an oil and natural gas exploration and production company focused on the exploration, exploitation, acquisition and production of natural gas, crude oil and natural gas liquids. The company's principal properties are located in the Utica Shale primarily in Eastern Ohio and the SCOOP Woodford and SCOOP Springer plays in Oklahoma. In addition, among other interests, the company holds an acreage position along the Louisiana Gulf Coast in the West Cote Blanche Bay and Hackberry fields, an acreage position in the Alberta oil sands in Canada through its interest in Grizzly Oil Sands ULC and an equity interest in Mammoth Energy Services, Inc., an oil field services company.

Marathon Oil Corporation

Marathon Oil is an independent exploration and production company focused on the United States resource plays. The company also has international operations in Equatorial Guinea (E.G.). The company's segments are: United States, which explores for, produces and markets crude oil and condensate, natural gas liquids (NGLs) and natural gas in the United States; and International, which explores for, produces and markets crude oil and condensate, NGLs and natural gas outside of the United States as well as produces and markets products manufactured from natural gas, such as liquefied natural gas and methanol, in E.G.

Ovintiv Inc

Encana is in the business of the exploration for, the development of, and the production and marketing of natural gas, oil and natural gas liquids (NGLs). All of Co.'s reserves and production are located in North America. As at Dec. 31, 2016, total proved developed and undeveloped reserves for natural gas, oil, and NGLs were 2.90 billion cubic ft., 155.6 million barrels (MMbbls), and 150.4 MMbbls, respectively. Co.'s operating and reportable segments are: Canadian Operations, USA Operations, and Market Optimization.

Raytheon Company

Raytheon, together with its subsidiaries, is a technology company, focused on defense and other government markets. The company has five segments: Integrated Defense Systems, which is engaged in integrated air and missile defense; large land- and sea-based radar solutions; command, control, communications, computers, cyber and intelligence solutions; Intelligence, Information and Services, which provides technical services to intelligence, defense, federal and commercial customers; Missile Systems, which produces missile and combat systems; Space and Airborne Systems, which develops integrated sensor and communication systems for missions; and Forcepoint, which develops cybersecurity products.

Royal Dutch Shell Plc Class A

Royal Dutch Shell is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, Co. is engaged in the oil and gas industry. Co. reports its business through four segments: Integrated Gas, which engaged in the liquefaction and transportation of gas and the conversion of natural gas to liquids to provide fuels and other products; Upstream, which engaged in the exploration for and extraction of crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids; Downstream, which engaged in oil products and chemicals manufacturing and marketing activities; and Corporate, which comprising Co.'s holdings and treasury organisation, its self-insurance activities and its headquarters and central functions.

Salesforce.com inc.

Salesforce.Com is engaged in customer relationship management technology. The company's Customer 360 is an integrated platform that unites sales, service, marketing, commerce, integration, analytics and more to give companies a single, shared view of their customers. Through its platform and other developer tools, the company also enables third parties to develop additional functionality and applications, or apps, that run on its platform, which are sold separately from or in conjunction with the company's service offerings. The company's cloud service offerings include sales cloud, service cloud, marketing and commerce cloud, and salesforce platform and other.

SM Energy Company

SM Energy is an independent energy company engaged in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of oil, gas, and natural gas liquids in the state of Texas. The company's operations are concentrated in the Midland Basin and South Texas.

Volkswagen AG

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Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

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