CELG - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2019 04 17
Celgene Corp (CELG:USA) currently trades significantly below corporate averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) Earnings, with an 8.6x Uniform P/E, implying bearish expectations for the firm. Additionally, management may be concerned about their Bristol-Myers Squibb merger, REVLIMID sales growth, and the results of their pipeline studies.Specifically, management may be concerned about the timing and benefits of their Bristol-Myers Squibb merger, as well as their intent to pursue smaller M&A opportunities before the deal closes. Furthermore, they may lack confidence in their ability to sustain price increases and REVLIMID sales growth, complete recruitment for their Phase II non-transfusion-dependent beta-thalassemia study, and gain regulatory approval for fedratinib NDA by the end of 2019. Also, management may be exaggerating the results of their Phase III SUNBEAM and RADIANCE studies on ozanimod NDA and the potential of their KarMMa 3 study on relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma. Finally, they may be overstating the strength of overseas market demand and the potential for ozanimod to become a best-in-class S1P receptor modulator.
Celgene is a global biopharmaceutical company engaged primarily in the discovery, development and commercialization of therapies for the treatment of cancer and inflammatory diseases through solutions in protein homeostasis, immuno-oncology, epigenetics, immunology and neuro-inflammation. The company's primary commercial stage products include: REVLIMID?, an oral immunomodulatory drug; POMALYST?/IMNOVID?, a proprietary, small molecule; OTEZLA?, an oral small-molecule inhibitor of phosphodiesterase 4 for cyclic adenosine monophosphate; ABRAXANE?, a solvent-free chemotherapy product; and VIDAZA?, a pyrimidine nucleoside analog. In addition, the company provides other product sales and licensing arrangements.
In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:
- GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
- Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
- Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
- Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available
We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.
- Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
- Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
- Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
- The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming
The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Browse all ResearchPool reportsReport is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.