Report
Valens Research

CCS - Valens Credit Report - 2021 04 12

Credit markets are overstating CCS's credit risk with a YTW of 4.019%, relative to an Intrinsic YTW of 2.879% and an Intrinsic CDS of 200bps. Meanwhile, Moody's is materially overstating the firm's fundamental credit risk, with its speculative B1 credit rating six notches lower than Valens' IG4+ (Baa1) credit rating

Incentives Dictate Behavior™ analysis highlights that CCS's management compensation framework is mostly negative for credit holders. That said, management's compensation framework should drive them to focus primarily on top-line growth and margin expansion, leading to potential Uniform ROA improvement

Earnings Call Forensics™ of the firm's Q4 2020 earnings call (2/4) highlights that management is confident 2020 pretax income is the highest in firm history
Underlying
Century Communities Inc.

Century Communities is engaged in the development, design, construction, marketing and sale of single-family attached and detached homes. The company builds and sells homes under its Century Communities and Wade Jurney Homes brands. The company's Century Communities brand targets a range of buyer profiles including: first time, first and second time move up, and lifestyle homebuyers, and provides its homebuyers with the ability to personalize their homes through certain option and upgrade selections. The company's Wade Jurney Homes brand targets first time homebuyers, primarily sells homes through retail studios and over the internet and provides no option or upgrade selections.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

Analysts
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