Report
Valens Research

CVX - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2022 06 02

Chevron Corporation (CVX) currently trades near corporate yet above historical averages relative to Uniform earnings, with a 24.3x Uniform P/E (Fwd. V/E').

At these levels, markets are pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to expand to 6%, accompanied by 3% Uniform asset growth going forward.

However, analysts expect Uniform ROA to improve to only 5% by 2023, accompanied by 1% Uniform asset shrinkage.

If sustained going forward, these levels would imply a stock price closer to $105, representing approximately 41% equity downside for the firm.

Moreover, the firm's most recent earnings call suggests management may have concerns about demand levels, oil production, and costs.
Underlying
Chevron Corporation

Chevron is engaged in energy and chemicals operations. Upstream operations consist primarily of, among others, exploring for, developing and producing crude oil and natural gas; processing, liquefaction, transportation and regasification associated with liquefied natural gas, storage and marketing of natural gas; and a gas-to-liquids plant. Downstream operations consist primarily of, among others, refining crude oil into petroleum products; marketing of crude oil and refined products; and manufacturing and marketing of commodity petrochemicals, plastics for industrial uses and fuel and lubricant additives.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

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Valens Research

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