Report
Valens Research

CI - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2021 11 09

Cigna Corporation (CI) currently trades near historical, yet below corporate averages relative to Uniform earnings, with a 14.7x Uniform P/E (Fwd. V/E').

At these levels, markets are pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to fade, accompanied by 3% Uniform asset growth.

However, if sustained going forward, analyst expectations for 33% Uniform ROA and 4% Uniform asset shrinkage imply a stock price closer to $267, representing approximately 21% equity upside for the firm.

That said, the firm's most recent earnings call suggests management may have concerns about medical costs and MDLIVE.
Underlying
Cigna Corporation

Cigna is a global health service organization. The company's segments are: Integrated Medical, which includes its employer-sponsored medical coverage and Medicare offerings for seniors and individual insurance offerings to non-seniors both on and off the public health insurance exchanges; Health Services, which consists of the pharmacy benefit management and certain health management services; International Markets, which provides a range of medical and supplemental health, life, and accident benefits to individuals and employers; and Group Disability and Other, which includes its commercial long- and short-term disability products, and its term life group insurance products.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

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