- While cash bond markets are materially overstating credit risk with a YTW of 5.823% relative to an iCDS of 156bps and an iYTW of 4.193%, Moody's is overstating CNX's fundamental credit risk, viewing the firm as a highly speculative, high-yield credit, with its B1 rating four notches lower than Valens' XO (Baa3) rating - Incentives Dictate Behavior™ analysis highlights that CNX's management compensation framework is positive for credit holders, as it should incentivize them to improve margins and asset utilization. Also, with low change-in-control compensation, management is not incentivized to pursue a sale or accept a buyout of the business, limiting event risk - CNX currently trades near historical lows relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) Assets, with a 0.8x Uniform P/B. At these valuations, the market is pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to rebound from current -2% levels in 2017 to 5% by 2022, accompanied by 2% Uniform Asset growth going forward
CNX Resources is an independent oil and gas company focused on the exploration, development, production, gathering, processing and acquisition of natural gas properties primarily in the Appalachian Basin. The company's operations are centered on unconventional shale formations, primarily the Marcellus Shale and Utica Shale. The company operates, develops and explores for natural gas in Appalachia (Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Ohio, and Virginia).
In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:
We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.
The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Browse all ResearchPool reportsReport is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.