Report
Valens Research

CNX - Valens Credit Report - 2018 02 28

- While cash bond markets are materially overstating credit risk with a YTW of 5.823% relative to an iCDS of 156bps and an iYTW of 4.193%, Moody's is overstating CNX's fundamental credit risk, viewing the firm as a highly speculative, high-yield credit, with its B1 rating four notches lower than Valens' XO (Baa3) rating - Incentives Dictate Behavior™ analysis highlights that CNX's management compensation framework is positive for credit holders, as it should incentivize them to improve margins and asset utilization. Also, with low change-in-control compensation, management is not incentivized to pursue a sale or accept a buyout of the business, limiting event risk - CNX currently trades near historical lows relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) Assets, with a 0.8x Uniform P/B. At these valuations, the market is pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to rebound from current -2% levels in 2017 to 5% by 2022, accompanied by 2% Uniform Asset growth going forward

Underlying
CNX Resources Corporation

CNX Resources is an independent oil and gas company focused on the exploration, development, production, gathering, processing and acquisition of natural gas properties primarily in the Appalachian Basin. The company's operations are centered on unconventional shale formations, primarily the Marcellus Shale and Utica Shale. The company operates, develops and explores for natural gas in Appalachia (Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Ohio, and Virginia).

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

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Valens Research

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