Report
Valens Research

Valens Equity Insights and Inflections - 2021 01 05

KEYS has seen strong improvement in UAFRS-based (Uniform) ROA the past few years,
thanks to its strong legacy business and growth into a high return SaaS business model.
While the market is pricing the company for returns and growth to stagnate going forward, there is no reason returns cannot continue to accelerate.

The company is likely to see returns stay flat at worst with steady growth, thanks to its
position as the market leader in the circuit testing and design business, a growing market
as more thing get wired. And as its profitability expansion the last 3 years has highlighted,
its move into helping customers design circuits digitally before making them, providing a
SaaS software platform for them to do it, is highly incremental to profitability.

This trend is not slowing down also, it is only speeding up as they get more adoption, which should lead to further ROA expansion.

On top of that, management's compensation aligns them to focus on its SaaS strategy to boost returns while also growing the business. And during the Q3 (8/20) and Q4 (11/18) earnings call, management has shown confidence about its competitive moats, margin expansion, and overall market growth trends which point to significant fundamental upside.

Considering low market expectations, management's transformative strategy and robust
execution, favorable management alignment, and positive management outlook, there
appears to be equity upside potential for KEYS.

SONO Q4 2020 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Although management may have concerns about margins, R&D, and the supply chain, market expectations are still too bearish, suggesting equity outperformance remains warranted

CPRT Q1 2021 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Markets are pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to reach new peaks, but management may be concerned about pricing, insurance partners, and the international business

NOC Q3 2020 Embedded Expectations Analysis – Market expectations are for Uniform ROA to decline, but management is confident about growth, Skyborg, and bipartisan support

KEYS, CPRT, NOC, SONO, HOLX, PAYC, SNAP, UBER, XYL
Underlyings
Copart Inc.

Copart is a provider of online auctions and vehicle remarketing services. The company provides vehicle sellers with a range of services to process and sell vehicles primarily over the Internet through its Virtual Bidding Third Generation Internet auction-style sales technology. Vehicle sellers consist primarily of insurance companies, but also include banks, finance companies, charities, fleet operators, dealers and vehicles sourced directly from individual owners. The company sells the vehicles principally to licensed vehicle dismantlers, rebuilders, repair licensees, used vehicle dealers and exporters and, at certain locations, to the general public.

Hologic Inc.

Hologic is a developer, manufacturer and supplier of diagnostics products, medical imaging systems, surgical products and light-based aesthetic and medical treatment systems. The company's segments are: Diagnostics, which provides diagnostic products which are used to aid in the diagnosis of human diseases; Breast Health, which provides solutions for breast cancer care for radiology, pathology and surgery; Medical Aesthetics, which provides aesthetic treatment systems, including SculpSure, PicoSure and MonaLisa Touch; GYN Surgical, which includes NovaSure Endometrial Ablation System to treat abnormal uterine bleeding; and Skeletal Health, which includes the Horizon DXA, a dual energy x-ray system.

Keysight Technologies Inc

Keysight Technologies is a technology company. The company's segments are: Communications Solutions Group, which provides electronic design and test software, instruments and systems and related services used in the simulation, design, validation, manufacturing, installation and optimization of electronic equipment; Electronic Industrial Solutions Group, which provides test and measurement solutions and related services across a set of electronic industrial end markets; and Ixia Solutions Group, which helps customers design, validate and support the performance and security of their networks and associated components and applications.

Northrop Grumman Corporation

Northrop Grumman is a security company. The company's segments include: Aerospace Systems, which is engaged in the design, development, integration and production of manned aircraft, autonomous systems, spacecraft, high-energy laser systems, microelectronics and other systems and subsystems; Innovation Systems, which is engaged in the design, development, integration and production of flight, armament and space systems; Mission Systems, which is engaged in end-to-end mission solutions and multifunction systems; and Technology Services, which is engaged in delivering solutions and services in support of mission-critical networks and systems.

Paycom Software Inc.

Paycom Software is a provider of cloud-based human capital management (HCM) solution delivered as Software-as- a-Service. The company provides functionality and data analytics that businesses need to manage the complete employment lifecycle, from recruitment to retirement. The company's solution requires virtually no customization and is based on a core system of record maintained in a single database for various HCM functions, including talent acquisition, time and labor management, payroll, talent management and human resources management applications. The company's solution was developed in-house and is based on a single platform, there is no need to integrate, update or access various databases.

Snap Inc. Class A

Snap is a camera company. The company's primary product, Snapchat, is a camera application that helps people to communicate visually through short videos and images called Snaps. The company's products are: Camera, which includes tools for people to personalize their Snaps; Chat, which includes interacting with friends on Snapchat; Discover, which includes providing Stories and Shows from publishers, creators, and the community; Snap Map, which shows a live map of the user's location; Memories, which enables users to save the Snaps they create in a personal collection called Memories; and Spectacles, which includes creating Memories by using Spectacles, which are the company's sunglasses that make Snaps.

Sonos

Sonos designs, develops, manufactures and sells multi-room audio products. The Sonos home sound system provides customers with a listening activity created by the design of its speakers and components, a proprietary software platform and the ability to stream content from a variety of sources over the customer's wireless network or over Bluetooth. The company's products are sold via third-party retail stores, including custom installers of home audio systems. The company also sells via select e-commerce retailers and its website sonos.com. The company's products are distributed through its wholly owned subsidiaries: Sonos Europe B.V., Beijing Sonos Technology Co., Ltd., Sonos Japan GK and Sonos Australia Pty Ltd.

Uber Technologies Inc.

Uber Technologies provides ride hailing services. The company develops application for road transportation, navigation, ride sharing, and payment processing solutions. The company serves customers in the United States and Canada, Latin America, Europe, Middle East, and Asia Pacific markets, excluding its discontinued China operations.

Xylem Inc.

Xylem is water technology company. The company designs, manufactures and services engineered solutions ranging across a variety of applications primarily in the water sector, but also in electric and gas. The company's business segments are: water infrastructure, which serves the water infrastructure sector with pump systems, filtration, ultraviolet and ozone systems and pumping solutions; Applied Water, which serves the usage applications sector with water pressure boosting systems; and Measurement and Control Solutions, which serves the utility infrastructure solutions and services sector by delivering communications, smart metering, measurement and control technologies and infrastructure technologies.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

Analysts
Valens Research

Other Reports on these Companies
Other Reports from Valens Research

ResearchPool Subscriptions

Get the most out of your insights

Get in touch