Report
Valens Research

CVX - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2018 03 09

Chevron Corporation (CVX:USA) currently trades near historical averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) Assets, with a 0.9x Uniform P/B. At these levels, markets are pricing in expectations for a rebound in profitability, but management has concerns about the Permian, capital projects, and costs

Specifically, management may be downplaying concerns about Train 1 at Wheatstone, and may lack confidence in their development program at the Permian. Additionally, they may lack confidence in their production guidance, and may have concerns about their ability to continue improving the optimization of design at the Permian. Furthermore, they may lack confidence in their ability to execute on capital projects, and may be downplaying concerns about cost inflation
Underlying
Chevron Corporation

Chevron is engaged in energy and chemicals operations. Upstream operations consist primarily of, among others, exploring for, developing and producing crude oil and natural gas; processing, liquefaction, transportation and regasification associated with liquefied natural gas, storage and marketing of natural gas; and a gas-to-liquids plant. Downstream operations consist primarily of, among others, refining crude oil into petroleum products; marketing of crude oil and refined products; and manufacturing and marketing of commodity petrochemicals, plastics for industrial uses and fuel and lubricant additives.

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Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

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Valens Research

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