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Valens Research

DHR - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2020 12 14

Danaher Corporation (DHR:USA) currently trades at a historical high relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) earnings, with a 34.7x Uniform P/E. At these levels, the market is pricing in bullish expectations for the firm, but management may be concerned about free cash flows, consumables & services performance, and investments

Specifically, management may be concerned about their free cash flow generation, the effects of GeneXpert in different care settings, and the combinations of their investments in innovation, workforce, and a strong balance sheet. Moreover, they may lack confidence in their ability to continue investing in capacity expansions, maintain order growth from Cytiva and Pall Biotech, and the global performance of consumables and services. Furthermore, they may have concerns about the sustainability of the performance of consumables. In addition, they may lack confidence in their ability to sustain the momentum they have with Danaher Diagnostics. Finally, management may be exaggerating the potential of their
STELLARIS confocal microscope
Underlying
DANAHER CORPORATION

Danaher designs, manufactures and markets medical, industrial and commercial products and services. The company's segments include: Life Sciences, which provides research tools to study genes, proteins, metabolites and cells, in order to understand the causes of disease, identify therapies and test drugs and vaccines; Diagnostics, which provides analytical instruments, reagents, consumables, software and services that hospitals, physicians' offices, reference laboratories and other critical care settings use to diagnose disease and make treatment decisions; and Environmental and Applied Solutions, which provides products and services to protect resources and global food and water supplies.

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Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

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