Report
Valens Research

EXC - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2021 11 09

Exelon Corporation (EXC) currently trades at a historical high and above corporate averages relative to Uniform earnings, with a 35.2x Uniform P/E (Fwd. V/E').

At these levels, markets are pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to improve, accompanied by 3% Uniform asset growth.

However, if sustained going forward, analyst expectations for 4% Uniform ROA and immaterial Uniform asset growth, would imply a stock price closer to $11, representing approximately 79% equity downside for the firm.

Moreover, the firm's most recent earnings call suggests management may have concerns about their clean energy goals and power plants.
Underlying
Exelon Corporation

Exelon is a utility services holding company engaged in the generation, delivery and marketing of energy through Exelon Generation Company, LLC and the energy distribution and transmission businesses through Commonwealth Edison Company, PECO Energy Company, Baltimore Gas and Electric Company, Potomac Electric Power Company, Delmarva Power & Light Company and Atlantic City Electric Company. Through its business services subsidiary Exelon Business Services Company, LLC, the company provides its subsidiaries with a variety of support services.

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Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

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